Velcorr's mma money machine

**velcorr** · 07-13-16, 09:51 AM

Non-conflicting parlays for non-conflicting parlay lovers.

I'm putting half unit bets on the following parlays.

1. Stanciu, Murphy and Samman @ +260

2. Clark, Holtzman and Linekar @ +182

I like playing both of these because if the first five hit, you could entertain a hedge on Linekar. My official parlay pick is in my official pick post but some people just like to parlay cards instead of betting fights.

Here is a long shot four teamer for those who like to gamble. I don't play 4+ team parlays but this could window 5.01% of the time for +EV:

Stanciu, Smolka, Nakamura and McDonald @ +2000.

**velcorr** · 07-13-16, 10:06 AM

Boetsch vs Samman

I just heard that Boetsch said he took this fight because he needs the money. I already figured him to lose but that sweetens the pot. Too late to add it to my official picks but consider Samman @ -210. Pricey but Samman is the better fighter, Boetsch had potential but that was when I was in was still getting ID'd at the casinos. Then, saying he needs the paycheque! Scared money almost never wins.

Samman ITD is even money but I could see Boetsch hanging on for 15 minutes.

I'd seriously entertain Samman at the big price or certainly a two or three team parlay piece.

**Ty$** · 07-13-16, 10:57 AM

We are butting heads today Velcro. Let's see how I matchup. I got Mac, Boetsch, Yahya(not confident), I even put small on Pfistrr by Dec. Oh and Nguyen who I'm pretty confident in.

**Ty$** · 07-13-16, 10:59 AM

Originally posted by velcorr

I just heard that Boetsch said he took this fight because he needs the money. I already figured him to lose but that sweetens the pot. Too late to add it to my official picks but consider Samman @ -210. Pricey but Samman is the better fighter, Boetsch had potential but that was when I was in was still getting ID'd at the casinos. Then, saying he needs the paycheque! Scared money almost never wins.

Samman ITD is even money but I could see Boetsch hanging on for 15 minutes.

I'd seriously entertain Samman at the big price or certainly a two or three team parlay piece.

And if he needs $ why wouldn't he try to double that base price??? Fighters fight bro. He's a tough ass dude. Samman isn't that impressive and hopefully his hair fs with him.

**velcorr** · 07-13-16, 12:11 PM

What is your rationale for betting on Pfister? You're going to win a lot of money if you picks are right.

Originally posted by Ty$

We are butting heads today Velcro. Let's see how I matchup. I got Mac, Boetsch, Yahya(not confident), I even put small on Pfistrr by Dec. Oh and Nguyen who I'm pretty confident in.

**blackHIPPY** · 07-13-16, 12:12 PM

what are the plays for tonight?

**velcorr** · 07-13-16, 12:37 PM

Orginal picks (page 2 of this thread)
Full Unit Plays

1. Oliynyk ITD (-122)
2. Holtzman, Alvey, Oliynyk @ +165
3. Likekar ITD (+100)
4. Alvey ITD (-122)

New ones, half unit plays. I still haven't pushed the button but I probably will.
5. Stanciu, Murphy and Samman @ +260
6. Clark, Holtzman and Linekar @ +182

Originally posted by blackHIPPY

what are the plays for tonight?

**velcorr** · 07-13-16, 12:40 PM

If you like betting on dogs, check out Ty$'s picks, a few up from this.

Originally posted by blackHIPPY

what are the plays for tonight?

**Thor4140** · 07-13-16, 12:47 PM

Originally posted by Hugo de Naranja

Macdonald was losing to Kanehara for most of the fight before reversing a choke and getting the sub. Don't think he KOs or outpoints Lineker so sub is a good play if you like MacDonald.

Mac to me look like a guy that didnt want to be in the cage that night then his opponent made a mistake and it was over.

**Manny0825** · 07-13-16, 12:52 PM

I was told by JJ to follow you. I must do as he says. BOL!

**velcorr** · 07-13-16, 01:06 PM

This a well handicapped card so get as much info as you can before you bet. I think my picks are good but I've gone into cards more confident. I miss the good ol days when the prelims of a FN were almost free money.

Originally posted by Manny0825

I was told by JJ to follow you. I must do as he says. BOL!

**velcorr** · 07-13-16, 01:13 PM

I've been fading McDonald since the beginning. I bet Kanehara hard and I usually never get angry but I needed a walk after that fight. McDonald sucks. I guess I can see picking him since he's +150 (5Dimes) if you like gambling on dogs but the way I look at it is, if they fought 10 times, Linekar wins 7 or 8 times out of 10. I'd only get on McDonald if he were +300 or so, that how much confidence I have in him. I just re-watched his last four fights and Linekars last three and I'm considering another unit straight up on Linekar if the line squeezes him to -120 or -130.

Originally posted by Thor4140

Mac to me look like a guy that didnt want to be in the cage that night then his opponent made a mistake and it was over.

**velcorr** · 07-13-16, 01:23 PM

Rogan's commentary in the Kanahara fight was hilarious. He made it sound like McDonald was winning that fight even when he was almost subbed. Kanehara must have had an acid flashback to give up that arm triangle and then basically let McDonald get that choke. If you watch the transition, it almost looks like Kanehara thought McDonald tapped because he just sat there for 0.5 seconds and did nothing. Even a good BJJ white belt knows how to protect themselves when they mess up an almost locked sub attempt. When people get out of arm bars, kimuras (in BJJ tournaments and roling more so than MMA since kimuras are generally used to sweep or get better position in high level MMA) and triangles, they usually explode into a counter-offensive, and we're all taught that relentlessly. Like, when Sage got out of that crappy arm bar @ UFC 200, his opponent was ready for the counter. Kanehara's BJJ is good. I remember my BJJ coach told us the next day that he's never seen anyone shit the bed like Kanehara did in that fight, including white belt division BJJ tourns. I'm still shaking my head over that.

Originally posted by Thor4140

Mac to me look like a guy that didnt want to be in the cage that night then his opponent made a mistake and it was over.

**jjgold** · 07-13-16, 01:23 PM

Valcour you're putting a lot of pressure on yourself here

**BIGDAY** · 07-13-16, 01:25 PM

Originally posted by jjgold

Valcour you're putting a lot of pressure on yourself here

I'm tailing him tonight.

Guy gets it.

Baldy... These are winners tonight.

**velcorr** · 07-13-16, 01:37 PM

Samman isn't Rockhold but Boetsch would struggle in Bellator. Why don't you put 10 units down on Boetsch and be a legend.

Originally posted by Ty$

And if he needs $ why wouldn't he try to double that base price??? Fighters fight bro. He's a tough ass dude. Samman isn't that impressive and hopefully his hair fs with him.

**velcorr** · 07-13-16, 01:47 PM

I'm up 40+ units this year alone betting MMA (thank you Connor and Holm), I'm never under pressure since I know how to bankroll manage and don't chase losses. I gotta make plays and these are them. I bet for value, so my prop plays sometimes tank but until I have two consecutive losing MMA cards, I'll keep my plays at 1 unit. There is so much money coming up this summer (UFC 202 is looking like an amazing card to bet and bet hard), I'll be happy at +0.1 units tonight. I'm certainly not betting McDonald or Vanetta. If those guys win and Oly bites it, I won't be the only one losing money.

Originally posted by jjgold

Valcour you're putting a lot of pressure on yourself here

**velcorr** · 07-13-16, 01:53 PM

You got any picks up BigDay? I assume you're on Linekar. The undercard is weird and the Fergusuon fight is almost unbettable. I wish I could get a prop bet on what kind of choke he taps Vanetta with. I like Ferg by D'Arce choke.

Cub Swanson says Vanetta is a super live dog and is betting on him. I love when guys go on about how good guys from their own camp are, especially when he said he was going to go through Edgar and Holloway.

Originally posted by BIGDAY

I'm tailing him tonight.

Guy gets it.

Baldy... These are winners tonight.

**BIGDAY** · 07-13-16, 02:26 PM

Originally posted by velcorr

You got any picks up BigDay? I assume you're on Linekar. The undercard is weird and the Fergusuon fight is almost unbettable. I wish I could get a prop bet on what kind of choke he taps Vanetta with. I like Ferg by D'Arce choke.

Cub Swanson says Vanetta is a super live dog and is betting on him. I love when guys go on about how good guys from their own camp are, especially when he said he was going to go through Edgar and Holloway.

I think we see the majority of favs take care of business.

Furguson should walk through. Should be on everyone's parlay card.

**velcorr** · 07-13-16, 02:54 PM

Trending

Money coming in on McDonald, but not a lot (not surprising.) Linekar @ -150 still. Money coming in on Ferguson, I'm not sure if they are counting prop bets, I don't know who is going to pay -700 on anyone, especially after Rockhold/Bisping. The rest of the card seems stable line-wise.

Hopefully a nice, normal night of favourties winning. Eddie and Nunes were enough.

**velcorr** · 07-13-16, 03:07 PM

Tommy Toe Hold

Tommy Toe Hold agrees with on most of the card (I'm passing on Ngyuen but he's a solid pick).

Remember this name: Oliynyk (or as they are now spelling it, Olienik.

)

**Hugo de Naranja** · 07-13-16, 03:10 PM

Originally posted by velcorr

Tommy Toe Hold agrees with me (I'm passing on Ngyuen but he's a solid pick).

Remember this name: Oliynyk (or as they are now spelling it, Olienik.

)

I like Oliynyk -3.5 (-155) since I think he gets the finish or wins at least one 30-27 a lot

**Ty$** · 07-13-16, 03:16 PM

Originally posted by velcorr

If you like betting on dogs, check out Ty$'s picks, a few up from this.

😎 Let's bark boys

**Stammertime91** · 07-13-16, 03:58 PM

Originally posted by velcorr

I'm putting half unit bets on the following parlays.

1. Stanciu, Murphy and Samman @ +260

2. Clark, Holtzman and Linekar @ +182

I like playing both of these because if the first five hit, you could entertain a hedge on Linekar. My official parlay pick is in my official pick post but some people just like to parlay cards instead of betting fights.

Here is a long shot four teamer for those who like to gamble. I don't play 4+ team parlays but this could window 5.01% of the time for +EV:

Stanciu, Smolka, Nakamura and McDonald @ +2000.

Tailing you on the two three fighter parlays tonight. Lets make some money!

**velcorr** · 07-13-16, 04:03 PM

It's the HW division so the 30-27's scare me. I love him to finish (-122). 5Dimes has him straight at -185. Super ugly 15 minutes or the Russian by sub (+135 5Dimes). The -3.5 is an interesting compromise. I think I'm starting to like it, a lot, but -35 more you just get him outright. Hmmmm. Super interesting prop Hugo, nice one.

Not awarded fight of the night @ -2000 is a lock. Too bad I didn't have a 20 million dollar roll, I could make an easy million.

Originally posted by Hugo de Naranja

I like Oliynyk -3.5 (-155) since I think he gets the finish or wins at least one 30-27 a lot

**Capybara** · 07-13-16, 04:07 PM

Originally posted by velcorr

Orginal picks (page 2 of this thread)
Full Unit Plays

1. Oliynyk ITD (-122)
2. Holtzman, Alvey, Oliynyk @ +165
3. Likekar ITD (+100)
4. Alvey ITD (-122)

New ones, half unit plays. I still haven't pushed the button but I probably will.
5. Stanciu, Murphy and Samman @ +260
6. Clark, Holtzman and Linekar @ +182

I'm guessing "ITD" means fight doesn't go the distance? Sorry, noob to MMA betting. Problem is 5D does not appear to have this option.

Unless I'm missing something somewhere.

**BIGDAY** · 07-13-16, 04:08 PM

Originally posted by Capybara

I'm guessing "ITD" means fight doesn't go the distance? Sorry, noob to MMA betting. Problem is 5D does not appear to have this option.

Unless I'm missing something somewhere.

Go to their props.

**Capybara** · 07-13-16, 04:10 PM

Originally posted by BIGDAY

Go to their props.

Yeah, I realized it must be in props the second after I posted this. Thanks.

**BIGDAY** · 07-13-16, 04:11 PM

Originally posted by Capybara

Yeah, I realized it must be in props the second after I posted this. Thanks.

**KushMoney** · 07-13-16, 04:50 PM

2 3-Fight Parlays isn't a good way to make money.

Also, JJ publicly endorsing you is the worst thing that could have happened.

Both parlays will probably miss by 1 fight.

I agree with all of Ty$ picks.

**Ty$** · 07-13-16, 04:58 PM

Originally posted by KushMoney

2 3-Fight Parlays isn't a good way to make money.

Also, JJ publicly endorsing you is the worst thing that could have happened.

Both parlays will probably miss by 1 fight.

I agree with all of Ty$ picks.

I'm telling you now I play lots of dogs. Not all. I've been training/teaching/fighting mma for 12 years I know UFC fighters personally. Train with Tim Johnson and trained w Pablo Garza for 3 years and even fought him. I lost. I'm not a pro gambler. I do this for fun and vacation $$$. I don't play units?!? If I had to make a unit itd prolly be 10-20 for a average play. I'm at the fights right now!! Let's get this!! Thanks kush$ I got 1 fan.

**KushMoney** · 07-13-16, 05:42 PM

I almost always bet dogs in straight bets and sometimes bet on favorites but much less than I would on a straight bet .

Last event I took Nunes, Lesnar and Gastelum as dogs. Also small Thiago Santos and a tiny bet on Anderson right before the fight. Those were literally all the bets I made.

I wanted to bet at first on Mousasi, Jim Miller , Dillashaw . or maybe in a parlay but felt it was greedy so I laid off that. Those were the only favorites I had faith in.

Today I like Mac Donald. Boetsch. Yahya . Nakamura . Clark . That's it

**Smoke** · 07-13-16, 05:44 PM

Where are ty$ picks I didn't see them

**ufcfan2016** · 07-13-16, 05:47 PM

any1 who bet on lopez is in trouble

lol

3u on rani +150 easy

**Ty$** · 07-13-16, 05:53 PM

Ruh roh.... Yahya baby