Velcorr's mma money machine

[The Giant]

I'm new to this site, I don't know much about Big Day. Follow us both, I can't speak for anyone else but I'm up betting MMA since 2005. Information = money.

What are your stats?

I want to picture you naked.

[velcorr]

I go back and forth. I want to see the weigh-ins. The price is right on McDonald. I still say, if someone is on MM, they should take the sub prop.

Agree he didn't look great but that was off a long layoff also. When I think of Lineker all I think of is plod ahead and swing from the hip. I feel like he can be countered by a technical boxer like McDonald. I'm on McD straight so far.

[Ty$]

Vector were you a fighter?

It's Velcro

[Ty$]

I go back and forth. I want to see the weigh-ins. The price is right on McDonald. I still say, if someone is on MM, they should take the sub prop.

I think this fights ends by TKO or Decision. No subs.

[Altern8]

I know fighters.

I think I'm gonna do a parlay. Could you go over it for me? Matthew Lopez, Cristina Stanciu, Lauren Murphy and
Sam Alve all to win. Think i'll leave the main event.

[velcorr]

Update

Got my prop on my UFC FN 91

Oleksiy Oliynyk vs. Daniel Omielanczuk

Oliynyk to beat Omielanczuk inside the distance @ - 122 (888Sport)

I'm putting 2 units to win 1.63 units. Most likely he gets the sub, but a KO/TKO is certainly possible. He will finish Omielanczuk.

My other official picks are done, but I have to see the weigh-ins before I publish them.

[velcorr]

Hey Altern8. I'm big on Alvey, but I'm not sure about the other three. I'd play Alvey, Oliynyk and Holtzman. Your parlay is getting around +1300, which looks great, but 1) 4 fight/team parlays hardly win and 2) Except for Alvey, I think the other three fights are competitive. My parlay is much, much less sexy at +175 - +180 but has at least 40% of hitting. If you add Muprhy to it, you get about +300 but again, four and more team parlays lose so much EV. Your 4 fighter will be classic if it comes in but I don't think it will and mine is almost a lock. Just my thoughts. BOL.

I think I'm gonna do a parlay. Could you go over it for me? Matthew Lopez, Cristina Stanciu, Lauren Murphy and
Sam Alve all to win. Think i'll leave the main event.

[Altern8]

Hey Altern8. I'm big on Alvey, but I'm not sure about the other three. I'd play Alvey, Oliynyk and Holtzman. Your parlay is getting around +1300, which looks great, but 1) 4 fight/team parlays hardly win and 2) Except for Alvey, I think the other three fights are competitive. My parlay is much, much less sexy at +175 - +180 but has at least 40% of hitting. If you add Muprhy to it, you get about +300 but again, four and more team parlays lose so much EV. Your 4 fighter will be classic if it comes in but I don't think it will and mine is almost a lock. Just my thoughts. BOL.

I had a 6 fight/team parlay hit on Saturday with MLB/UFC mixed together. I'm not 100% certain on the parlay just getting opinions. It's either do or die if go at it so i need to get it right, I've been warned to stay away from WMMA. I notice Ronda Rousey fight's next weekend which of the two cards between this and her card have the better locks. I've heard the Russian you like might get KO'd by the Polish guy but if your certain i could use him in a parlay.

[velcorr]

I like the Polish guy, not the Russian guy. LOL. The Polish guy is going to finish the Russian guy. The Russian guy is younger and is better at range but the Polish guy is a nightmare on the cage, has 41 submissions (not a typo) and while coming off a layoff and not young, it is the HW division and Oliynyk ITD @ -122 or a straight pick @ -190 is a no brainer.

Ronda Rousey is not fighting next weekend, nobody knows if she's ever fighting again. I haven't looked too much past tomorrow but UFC 202 is going to cash money, just a bit over a month away.

I had a 6 fight/team parlay hit on Saturday with MLB/UFC mixed together. I'm not 100% certain on the parlay just getting opinions. It's either do or die if go at it so i need to get it right, I've been warned to stay away from WMMA. I notice Ronda Rousey fight's next weekend which of the two cards between this and her card have the better locks. I've heard the Russian you like might get KO'd by the Polish guy but if your certain i could use him in a parlay.

[velcorr]

Sorry, he is Russian. Yes, I like the Russian guy and all the other stuff, just reverse Russian and Polish. LOL.

I had a 6 fight/team parlay hit on Saturday with MLB/UFC mixed together. I'm not 100% certain on the parlay just getting opinions. It's either do or die if go at it so i need to get it right, I've been warned to stay away from WMMA. I notice Ronda Rousey fight's next weekend which of the two cards between this and her card have the better locks. I've heard the Russian you like might get KO'd by the Polish guy but if your certain i could use him in a parlay.

[Altern8]

Sorry, he is Russian. Yes, I like the Russian guy and all the other stuff, just reverse Russian and Polish. LOL.

Alvey, Oliynyk and Holtzman what about Lopez?

[velcorr]

Lopez should beat Yahya, I guess, but Yahya is a parlay buster for sure, second fight on the card, and has only lost to good fighters. He either looks great or terrible. If you really want the fourth, I'd put Samman. You're getting less of a return but Yahya is much more likely to beat Lopez than Samman is to lose to Boetsch.

Alvey, Oliynyk and Holtzman what about Lopez?

[velcorr]

Picks coming directly after weigh-ins at 5:00PM EST

While we wait for weigh-ins, here is Zane Simon and Connor Ruebusch of Bloody Elbow's thorough analysis of the entire card. They don't always pick winners but they give good info that can help shape your picks.

[velcorr]

UFC Fight Night: McDonald vs. Lineker

UFC Fight Night: McDonald vs. Lineker


Official Picks.


I'm glad I spent an extra day watching fights, my thoughts on value in the card has changed.


Listed in order of confidence.


Oliynyk ITD (-122) 1.22 UNITS to win 1 UNITS


Parlay Holtzman, Alvey and Oliynyk @ +165 1 UNIT to win 1.65 UNITS (It's not my pick, but this can be made juicer by having Oliynk ITD but I'm sticking to a prop-free parlay juust in case Oliynyk can't find the finish)


Linekar ITD (+100) 1 UNIT to win 1 UNIT (I won't jump off a cliff if McDonald wins but the value is on Linekar and more value is on Linekar ITD. I'm predicting RD3 or RD4 KO but I'm not betting it for +0.20 more, just in case he uses strikes to find a sub. I am betting the finish however. Most people are betting McDonald and I'm really not sure why. He's a live dog but if you do the research, you'll see why he's +150. Linekar is NOT Kanehara, lay off or no lay off. Go watch the Kanehara fight and the miracle third round sub, then go watch Linekar vs. Rivera and Linekar vs. Font fights. Linekar, if he could have made weight at 125, would have or would be fighting DJ for the belt. He proved too big for the division, and is going back to 135. I've watched their fights for endlessly and Linekar is the better fighter. He's got KO power and 25mins to finish MM. McDonald's chin is good, but unless I've totally misread this, he's going down and this will be a career defining fight for the 26 year old Brazilian. Lots of people said I was wrong picking Lesnar and Aldo too.)


Fergersun by sub (+130) 1 UNIT to 1.3 UNITS (I almost passed on this, but after talking to a guy who knows a guy, I think TF by sub at plus money is the only way to extract value from this fight. If the Jackson/Winklejohn kid pulls off some insane upset, I'll just shake my head and say, anything can happen in MMA. Betting wise, this is the best bet, IMO)


Alvey ITD (-122) 1 UNIT to win 0.82 UNITS

TOTAL
5.22 UNITS wager to win 5.77

For the more agressive, put 2 UNITS on Oliynyk.

This is an extremely well handicapped card for a Fight Night event. I couldn't justify betting on any of the other fights, though Smolka came close. Katlyn Chookagian (+170) is a live dog but I'd rather get my money on Oliynyk.

Check with BigDay and other MMA guys, get on fight pass and watch fights. These are my picks, I'm not betting this card with extreme confidence. I was expecting different lines, the handicappers nailed this. That being said, I'm obviously high on Oliynyk and will sink or swim with him and Linekar.


BOL

[16kredit]

What book do you use velcor? Pinny hasnt got props for mma

[Ty$]

What book do you use velcor? Pinny hasnt got props for mma

I switched from Bovada to 5dimes and love it. Being able to parlay props is sick.

[Smoke]

velcro how much money will you be putting in action?

[Redman3693]

ThanX Velcro - BOL Mate

[latarianmilton]

You got any thoughts on Stanciu vs Casey?

[bjpenn85]

While we wait for weigh-ins, here is Zane Simon and Connor Ruebusch of Bloody Elbow's thorough analysis of the entire card. They don't always pick winners but they give good info that can help shape your picks.

I use these guys as well. Tremendous smart people. Sometimes i just shook my head in appreciation.

[bjpenn85]

UFC Fight Night: McDonald vs. Lineker


Official Picks.


I'm glad I spent an extra day watching fights, my thoughts on value in the card has changed.


Listed in order of confidence.


Oliynyk ITD (-122) 1.22 UNITS to win 1 UNITS


Parlay Holtzman, Alvey and Oliynyk @ +165 1 UNIT to win 1.65 UNITS (It's not my pick, but this can be made juicer by having Oliynk ITD but I'm sticking to a prop-free parlay juust in case Oliynyk can't find the finish)


Linekar ITD (+100) 1 UNIT to win 1 UNIT (I won't jump off a cliff if McDonald wins but the value is on Linekar and more value is on Linekar ITD. I'm predicting RD3 or RD4 KO but I'm not betting it for +0.20 more, just in case he uses strikes to find a sub. I am betting the finish however. Most people are betting McDonald and I'm really not sure why. He's a live dog but if you do the research, you'll see why he's +150. Linekar is NOT Kanehara, lay off or no lay off. Go watch the Kanehara fight and the miracle third round sub, then go watch Linekar vs. Rivera and Linekar vs. Font fights. Linekar, if he could have made weight at 125, would have or would be fighting DJ for the belt. He proved too big for the division, and is going back to 135. I've watched their fights for endlessly and Linekar is the better fighter. He's got KO power and 25mins to finish MM. McDonald's chin is good, but unless I've totally misread this, he's going down and this will be a career defining fight for the 26 year old Brazilian. Lots of people said I was wrong picking Lesnar and Aldo too.)


Fergersun by sub (+130) 1 UNIT to 1.3 UNITS (I almost passed on this, but after talking to a guy who knows a guy, I think TF by sub at plus money is the only way to extract value from this fight. If the Jackson/Winklejohn kid pulls off some insane upset, I'll just shake my head and say, anything can happen in MMA. Betting wise, this is the best bet, IMO)


Alvey ITD (-122) 1 UNIT to win 0.82 UNITS

TOTAL
5.22 UNITS wager to win 5.77

For the more agressive, put 2 UNITS on Oliynyk.

This is an extremely well handicapped card for a Fight Night event. I couldn't justify betting on any of the other fights, though Smolka came close. Katlyn Chookagian (+170) is a live dog but I'd rather get my money on Oliynyk.

Check with BigDay and other MMA guys, get on fight pass and watch fights. These are my picks, I'm not betting this card with extreme confidence. I was expecting different lines, the handicappers nailed this. That being said, I'm obviously high on Oliynyk and will sink or swim with him and Linekar.


BOL

I am also betting a lot these picks. But i went straight with lineker.

[velcorr]

5Dimes and SportBet have props. I use so many books, I'll use one book if the line is just a couple of cents higher or lower. 5Dimes is good for prices and props. They already have props on UFC 202.

What book do you use velcor? Pinny hasnt got props for mma

[velcorr]

I'm a 1000/U guy so $6222 because I'm putting 2U on Oliynik.

velcro how much money will you be putting in action?

[velcorr]

Yup, I like their weird dry monotone delivery too. I like their analysis because sometimes they use each other's take to re-shape their original. I don't even open my sports book until I hear their take.

It continues to amaze me how many super smart people cover MMA (Luke Thomas, Jordan Breen, Eugene Jackson, King Nate, the list goes on and on)

I use these guys as well. Tremendous smart people. Sometimes i just shook my head in appreciation.

[velcorr]

Safe and probably wiser than ITD, but it's five rounds and Linekar has a chin of granite, and KO power for days. I think if he wins, he finishes. The straight bet is good. When I make my picks, I'm trying to find as much value as I can, if Linekar was just a bit cheaper I'd say take him straight and your play is smart. Just risk vs reward. BOL to both of us. Linekar TKO RD 3, we both go to the window.

I am also betting a lot these picks. But i went straight with lineker.

[mikmik]

What does itd mean?

[velcorr]

I like Stanciu, but at -150, I'm passing. I just don't know enough about these two to put even a half unit on it. Go watch all their fights on fight pass and try to see who has more ways to win. I tried and am not confident enough to bet on this one. Gun to my head, Stanciu by sub @ +550 or Stanciu straight. She's got the edge everywhere from what I can see, especially on the ground. I think Stanciu @ -150 would be the play, but I'm greedy and would bet the sub prop at +550 and probably lose. BOL

You got any thoughts on Stanciu vs Casey?

[velcorr]

Inside the Distance. It means the fight won't go to the judges. KO, TKO, Sub, DQ, Doctor's Stoppage, Wardrobe Malfunction, etc.

What does itd mean?

[velcorr]

ThanX Velcro - BOL Mate

[mikmik]

Thanks

[TxAaron]

Hey Altern8. I'm big on Alvey, but I'm not sure about the other three.

Hola Velcorr, seems like you are backing off Alvey a little bit? Any reason why?

[velcorr]

I like him to win but straight at -250 seems pricey so I'm ITD, but yeah, after watching more tape, he's my least confident pick of the one's I'm betting. He's a sweet parlay piece at -250.

Hola Velcorr, seems like you are backing off Alvey a little bit? Any reason why?

[Ty$]

I like Stanciu, but at -150, I'm passing. I just don't know enough about these two to put even a half unit on it. Go watch all their fights on fight pass and try to see who has more ways to win. I tried and am not confident enough to bet on this one. Gun to my head, Stanciu by sub @ +550 or Stanciu straight. She's got the edge everywhere from what I can see, especially on the ground. I think Stanciu @ -150 would be the play, but I'm greedy and would bet the sub prop at +550 and probably lose. BOL

I'm w Stanciu all day here. She gave Moroz all she could handle. Hard hitter good submissions. She even could hit a sub so a prop is tricky cuz most girl fights go 3 rounds.

[Smoke]

I'm a 1000/U guy so $6222 because I'm putting 2U on Oliynik.

Cheers mate

[velcorr]

I might work her into a parlay. Stanciu, Murphy and Samman @ +260 is tempting.

Yes, the prop is tricky, hence +550.

I'm w Stanciu all day here. She gave Moroz all she could handle. Hard hitter good submissions. She even could hit a sub so a prop is tricky cuz most girl fights go 3 rounds.