Velcorr's picks

[velcorr]

Value

If you have access to lots of different books, there is more value in my picks, I just used the odds from my book. I'm halfway from San Diego to LV so I'll be betting at the window but there are certainly better odds to be found than from my book. BOL. I'll keep people posted with updates once I get to Vegas if I hear or see anything weird.

[velcorr]

Money

I'm at the Mandalay Bay Resort & Casino's Race & Sports Book getting a vibe of the bets. Lots of money going on Lesnar, the line will be a pick em by fight time. Glad I got in when I did. As I assumed, Cain/Mousassi parlay plays are hot, I'm still fading it, I'd rather put my money on Cain to finish for almost the same price and not have to worry about Mousassi being Mousassi. Edgar by dec is everywhere. I hope they push the line up more so I can put more down on Aldo. The main event is pass or dog, just a general fade. Lastly, Silva by KO is getting action, which makes sense. I expect the drunken sentimentalism bets to make the line worth betting DC a good play, but I could be wrong.

Best parlay I can think of for people who just want to make a fun, small play while they watch the card:

Sanchez, Cain, Aldo and Lesnar. Around +1200.

Not an official pick by me but it's what I'm telling these dudes to play. I always know I'm in Vegas when half the people I talk to are drunk before lunch. LOL.

For people who want to profit, bet the house on Lesnar.

[Ty$]

Good shit

[GoBlue77]

still can't get why you love lesnar bro. i know some heavy hitters that are on hunt.

[velcorr]

My bankroll and I will look like an idiot if i'm wrong but I really like Lesnar at plus money. I'd fade this all day if the line was reversed. I also know some seriously heavy hitters who are on Lesnar. Time will tell who's right. My main priority now that my bets are made is staying away from the bar.

still can't get why you love lesnar bro. i know some heavy hitters that are on hunt.

[Ty$]

still can't get why you love lesnar bro. i know some heavy hitters that are on hunt.

Were the same on rousey/conor/RDA? Anything can happen and the dogs been barking ....

[velcorr]

Lesnar is not going to trade with Hunt. He looks dumb but he's not. Word out of his camp is that he's in amazing shape and taking this fight seriously. Game plan is tight. Hunt could end Lesnar's WWE career if he starches him. Who has more ways to win and who has the cardio? Hunt was underestimated a few times, they got punished for it, and now it's coming full circle. Of course Hunt could KO Lesnar but what is more likely, Lesnar allowing Hunt that chance or Hunt being on his back? And then what?

Were the same on rousey/conor/RDA? Anything can happen and the dogs been barking ....

[velcorr]

Lesnar

Well, most of SBR thinks Hunt will win, and most MMA pros think he's going to win...

http://www.mmafighting.com/2016/7/9/12134610/ufc-200-pros-predict-brock-lesnar-vs-mark-hunt

I wonder why the line isn't Hunt -500. Let me guess, it's all the WWE fans who watched Lesnar beat John Cena or the Undertaker keeping the line close? People with serious money are betting Lesnar. If it were a bunch of 50 dollar tickets, there is no way Vegas or the off shores would risk keeping the line relatively close to a pick-em. I'm not saying anything shady is going on, but, I dunno, the WWE lent Lesnar to the UFC, the UFC is promoting the WWE tonight, Lesnar is in a WWE PPV in a few weeks.

Oh wait, he can't be, because Hunt is going to shatter his jaw. I don't think so. The only thing I could be wrong about is the way it ends but Lesnar wins this fight, I'm assuming in a way that re-legitimizes him in the UFC, turns him into a WWE God and cashes my ticket.

Or, he goes into the center of the ring, keep his hands down, sticks his jaw up in the air, Hunt smashes it, ruins Lesnar's career, costs the WWE millions, and makes people who got Hunt at -130 to -160 look like they bet on themselves to wake up. Don't think so.

Who has more ways to win? Who has better cardio? But I'd say the most important question is, who has more to lose? And I mean the royal "who"?

Interesting comparing Lesnar's physique at yesterday's weigh ins to his fight with The Reem. He can't be juicing, USADA would have caught him, I mean, they caught the former main eventer, right?

Remember when, a decade ago, a MW KO'd Hunt? I guess his incredible chin took a night off?

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Cf9U0quIrB8

I've been wrong before, I thought GSP would beat Serra the first time. I was wrong.

Lesnar def Hunt by destruction.

[vegaschulo]

Well, most of SBR thinks Hunt will win, and most MMA pros think he's going to win...

http://www.mmafighting.com/2016/7/9/12134610/ufc-200-pros-predict-brock-lesnar-vs-mark-hunt

I wonder why the line isn't Hunt -500. Let me guess, it's all the WWE fans who watched Lesnar beat John Cena or the Undertaker keeping the line close? People with serious money are betting Lesnar. If it were a bunch of 50 dollar tickets, there is no way Vegas or the off shores would risk keeping the line relatively close to a pick-em. I'm not saying anything shady is going on, but, I dunno, the WWE lent Lesnar to the UFC, the UFC is promoting the WWE tonight, Lesnar is in a WWE PPV in a few weeks.

Oh wait, he can't be, because Hunt is going to shatter his jaw. I don't think so. The only thing I could be wrong about is the way it ends but Lesnar wins this fight, I'm assuming in a way that re-legitimizes him in the UFC, turns him into a WWE God and cashes my ticket.

Or, he goes into the center of the ring, keep his hands down, sticks his jaw up in the air, Hunt smashes it, ruins Lesnar's career, costs the WWE millions, and makes people who got Hunt at -130 to -160 look like they bet on themselves to wake up. Don't think so.

Who has more ways to win? Who has better cardio? But I'd say the most important question is, who has more to lose? And I mean the royal "who"?

Interesting comparing Lesnar's physique at yesterday's weigh ins to his fight with The Reem. He can't be juicing, USADA would have caught him, I mean, they caught the former main eventer, right?

Remember when, a decade ago, a MW KO'd Hunt? I guess his incredible chin took a night off?

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Cf9U0quIrB8

I've been wrong before, I thought GSP would beat Serra the first time. I was wrong.

Lesnar def Hunt by destruction.

Nuf said I'm on Lesnar tonight ...thanks for the info much appreciated ..going down to my local casino..BOL on all your wagers Velcorr..

[KushMoney]

Well, most of SBR thinks Hunt will win, and most MMA pros think he's going to win...

http://www.mmafighting.com/2016/7/9/12134610/ufc-200-pros-predict-brock-lesnar-vs-mark-hunt

I wonder why the line isn't Hunt -500. Let me guess, it's all the WWE fans who watched Lesnar beat John Cena or the Undertaker keeping the line close? People with serious money are betting Lesnar. If it were a bunch of 50 dollar tickets, there is no way Vegas or the off shores would risk keeping the line relatively close to a pick-em. I'm not saying anything shady is going on, but, I dunno, the WWE lent Lesnar to the UFC, the UFC is promoting the WWE tonight, Lesnar is in a WWE PPV in a few weeks.

Oh wait, he can't be, because Hunt is going to shatter his jaw. I don't think so. The only thing I could be wrong about is the way it ends but Lesnar wins this fight, I'm assuming in a way that re-legitimizes him in the UFC, turns him into a WWE God and cashes my ticket.

Or, he goes into the center of the ring, keep his hands down, sticks his jaw up in the air, Hunt smashes it, ruins Lesnar's career, costs the WWE millions, and makes people who got Hunt at -130 to -160 look like they bet on themselves to wake up. Don't think so.

Who has more ways to win? Who has better cardio? But I'd say the most important question is, who has more to lose? And I mean the royal "who"?

Interesting comparing Lesnar's physique at yesterday's weigh ins to his fight with The Reem. He can't be juicing, USADA would have caught him, I mean, they caught the former main eventer, right?

Remember when, a decade ago, a MW KO'd Hunt? I guess his incredible chin took a night off?

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Cf9U0quIrB8

I've been wrong before, I thought GSP would beat Serra the first time. I was wrong.

Lesnar def Hunt by destruction.

BOL


Now I have been thinking about this Lesnar / Hunt fight for a while now. And came to the conclusion that 1. Sportsbooks set the line like this in order to draw in action on Lesnar. 2. Firas Zahabi is usually right or has the right idea. He picks Lesnar 70%. 3. Mark Hunt isn't Prime Cain or Prime Overreem (on peds) 4. We can only judge Lesnars performance on his last few fights. 5. Lesnar might be able to fight for 15+ minutes or he might be able to fight for 5-10 (gassing out) . I think Hunt being a full time fighter has kept a fighter physic and fights hard in the later rounds if Lesnar can't finish him. 6. Books must have had a tough time setting this line only because on paper Hunt kills Brock he's coming off 2 big wins and Lesnar is coming off 2 losses and hasn't fought in years. It's way too easy to bet on Hunt. So books make it seem like it's close so people find reasons to think Brock will win. Im a fan of both and wouldn't mind seeing either fighter win but I do think Mark Hunt has more heart than Lesnar and had been in more physical contests with professional athletes than Lesnar. At the same time Lesnar is not someone who goes lights out and that it. He's getting right back up if Mark Hunt tries to walk-off KO him lol.

[velcorr]

You gotta give the UFC credit, there is no other heavyweight on their roster that is as an intriguing a matchup. If Mir wasn't serving his suspension, I'm sure it'd be Mir/Lesnar 3 and the buzz would still be there but since we've seen the other too... Most MMA fans love watching Hunt, he's sort of like MMA's version of David Ortiz. I think we can all picture him walk off KO'ing Lesnar while at the same time picture Lesnar on top of him, but I agree with you, if Hunt wins, Lesnar won't go to sleep, it's look more like Cain vs Brock. I think it's going to look a lot more like Mir/Lesnar 2. Found it interesting that Lesnar's weighin was on the front of the WWE.COM website.

BOL


Now I have been thinking about this Lesnar / Hunt fight for a while now. And came to the conclusion that 1. Sportsbooks set the line like this in order to draw in action on Lesnar. 2. Firas Zahabi is usually right or has the right idea. He picks Lesnar 70%. 3. Mark Hunt isn't Prime Cain or Prime Overreem (on peds) 4. We can only judge Lesnars performance on his last few fights. 5. Lesnar might be able to fight for 15+ minutes or he might be able to fight for 5-10 (gassing out) . I think Hunt being a full time fighter has kept a fighter physic and fights hard in the later rounds if Lesnar can't finish him. 6. Books must have had a tough time setting this line only because on paper Hunt kills Brock he's coming off 2 big wins and Lesnar is coming off 2 losses and hasn't fought in years. It's way too easy to bet on Hunt. So books make it seem like it's close so people find reasons to think Brock will win. Im a fan of both and wouldn't mind seeing either fighter win but I do think Mark Hunt has more heart than Lesnar and had been in more physical contests with professional athletes than Lesnar. At the same time Lesnar is not someone who goes lights out and that it. He's getting right back up if Mark Hunt tries to walk-off KO him lol.

[velcorr]

Winner

Jim Miller to finish Takanori Gomi 1 UNIT to win 1 UNIT (Miller will sub Gomi but the extra juice isn't worth straight picking sub. Gomi's cardio is laughable and I'd hate to see Miller TKO Gomi from mount, etc.)

Official result: Jim Miller def. Takanori Gomi via TKO (Punches) R1 2:18

[velcorr]

Thank you vegaschulo, you too. Truly intriguing and interesting fight.

[velcorr]

Bet 2 coming up: Diego Sanchez vs Joe Lauzon

Official pick

6. Diego Sanchez to beat Joe Lauzon 1 UNIT to win 1 UNIT (My least confident pick, but a good style match up for Sanchez. He throws so many punches that judges love to gift him decisions. Moreover, his sub offence AND especially defense is still good. They are both shot fighters but I'm leaning Sanchez by IDGAF but he'll get the win.)

Diego looked like he just did a few lines of Colombia's finest in his fight week interviews. I had two units on him to upset BJ Penn @ UFC 107 @ +300 and that was the only time he lost a bet for me. He's the only guy on the roster who I've bet on because of his incredible resume of bad judging going in his favour.

Joe Lauzon hasn't beaten anyone of note, ever. Pulver, his signature win, was already shot back at UFC 63, almost ten years ago! I guess Jeremy Stephens 7 years ago was a good win.

Diego Sanchez, except for being eviscerated by BJ Penn, has been in every match he's had.

Here we go...

[mcfugly]

Pro MMA gambler but you have 50 posts?

[velcorr]

Pro Gamblers have to give free picks here? I've been betting MMA since 2005.

Pro MMA gambler but you have 50 posts?

[velcorr]

Loser

The undefeated streak ends.

Lauzon destroys Sanchez. It was my least confident pick so we're back to even, 1-1.

The joker hating on me for no reason, after I picked 5 straight winners, is who I'm blaming.

We'll get it back.

[mcfugly]

Funny how after 5 lucky picks guy thinks he's a pro gambler. Can't wait to see u get buried tonight

And now you added / MLB pro grambler. HAHAHAHAHHAHAHAHA. No pro gamblers that I know advertise themselves as pro gamblers

[velcorr]

Does this forum condone people being disrespectful to others, without any provocation? If so, after you see me win this card, I'll go somewhere else. If you don't like my picks or comments, take your insecurity somewhere else please and thank you.

Funny how after 5 lucky picks guy thinks he's a pro gambler. Can't wait to see u get buried tonight

[velcorr]

It's a joke you dense idiot. Get out of my thread.

Funny how after 5 lucky picks guy thinks he's a pro gambler. Can't wait to see u get buried tonight

And now you added / MLB pro grambler. HAHAHAHAHHAHAHAHA. No pro gamblers that I know advertise themselves as pro gamblers

[mcfugly]

Standby for burying

Oh yes, now the part where he pretends it was a joke and deletes it. Standby for burying

[mcfugly]

Stop being so sensitive breh

[velcorr]

I was military, had my knee destroyed in a helicopter crash in 2013. Took two years of hell to be able to walk again and I'll never have full function. So, technically, I do gamble professionally. I came here to give people my picks as I seem to do quite well. If you find me sensitive "breh" or don't like my material, go away. Hopefully the moderators I complained to will show me this forum is respectable. By the way, I'm in Vegas watching UFC 200, and still posting on here trying to help people make money. What are you doing beside hating? Go have a sandwich.

Stop being so sensitive breh

[mcfugly]

[velcorr]

Note: This is ONLY to be used to report spam, advertising messages, and problematic (harassment, fighting, or rude) posts.

[mcfugly]

Lol bro you made that so serious. Alls I'm sayin is you were claiming to be a 'pro gambler' which is kinda misleading to people who might follow you based on a phony claim like that. You've already admitted you are not and taken it down, then continued to attack me. So get off my back with the spam chit bruh

[velcorr]

Marin vs Northcutt

Considered betting on this but heard a from a training partner of Marin that he is not a can. Gun to my head, I'd take Northcutt by finish at -160 but this fight has dog or pass written all over it, especially after Northcutt's epic two second tap last time.

I used to train with army nuts who were juiced to the gills, worked out relentlessly and still looked nothing like this Northcutt guy.

[velcorr]

Sorry "bruh" (Are you 13?) I didn't say you spammed me, I posted what qualifies as a reason to complain about a post. Harassment and rude. I asked when I made my picks for haters to reserve their trolling for AFTER the card. Thanks. XO

Lol bro you made that so serious. Alls I'm sayin is you were claiming to be a 'pro gambler' which is kinda misleading to people who might follow you based on a phony claim like that. You've already admitted you are not and taken it down, then continued to attack me. So get off my back with the spam chit bruh

[mcfugly]

Nothing I said was 'harassment or rude'. So sensitive for a military dude

[velcorr]

Do I come to your mother's basement and bother you? If you got hooked on phonics and less hooked on ebonics, I'd tell you to go back and explain how "Funny how after 5 lucky picks guy thinks he's a pro gambler. Can't wait to see u get buried tonight " isn't rude, but I'm too busy. Yeah, six years in the military did make me sensitive to douchebags. Six years of Walmart will make you an even better troll. Find another thread and stop messing with the Feng Shui of my thread. Thanks again and where are those moderators to get you out of here.

Nothing I said was 'harassment or rude'. So sensitive for a military dude

[mcfugly]

The butthurt is real

[velcorr]

Oh you're still here? I'm in Vegas trying to watch the fights and have drinks. I'm pretty sure some geek trolling me on a sports forum from his mother's basement, watching the card on some crappy stream, trying to sound like Meek Mill, isn't going to "butthurt" me, whatever the hell that means. I'd pay money to watch you do basic training. Then the butthurt would indeed, be real.

Pick 3 coming up, trade some food stamps for 5 bucks and put it on a Lesnar/Cain/Aldo parlay and use the money to get your GED.

The butthurt is real

[BIGDAY]

I'm large on Lesnar.

[RudyRuetigger]

gl Velcro

[velcorr]

Winner

LOCK OF THE NIGHT
1. Cain Valuezquez to finish Travis Browne 2 UNITS to win 1.7 UNITS
(Cain wins this fight, the value in betting the finish is too much to pass on. You could play Cain to win at -274 but if he's going win, he's going to finish.)

Official result: Valuezquez wins by TKO 4:57 RD1

2-2 Tonight, +0.7 UNITS