Top ten starting pitchers this year

[l7ustin]

In order of how good they have been this season.

Just bet on these guys and you will do fine.

1. Kershaw
2. Cueto
3. Sale
4. Arrieta
5. Syndergaard
6. Bumgarner
7. Nola
8. Quintana
9. Wright
10. Strasburg

[JArrieta49]

Why is Chris Sale ahead of Jake Arrieta?

[slayer14]

Where Tanaka

[paco]

Zimmerman from tigers should be on there, also Salazar for Tribe

[l7ustin]

Why is Chris Sale ahead of Jake Arrieta?

Arrieta 68 IP BB/9 is 2.779 7 QS 0.90 whip

Sale 78.2 IP BB/9 1.831 9 QS 0.88 WHIP

[l7ustin]

Zimmerman from tigers should be on there, also Salazar for Tribe

His ERA is good but his IP, K rate, and whip exclude him from consideration

[l7ustin]

Where Tanaka

15 or 16. Closer than Salazar and Zimmerman

[JArrieta49]

Arrieta 68 IP BB/9 is 2.779 7 QS 0.90 whip

Sale 78.2 IP BB/9 1.831 9 QS 0.88 WHIP

Way to cherry pick.

Arrieta has a lower ERA and lower FIP and has faced significantly tougher offenses.

Chris Sale's average offensive rank opponent - 17.9th in MLB
Jake Arrieta's average offensive rank opponent - 10.9th in MLB

Do a bit more research before you start threads like this man.

[l7ustin]

In order of how good they have been this season.

Just bet on these guys and you will do fine.

1. Kershaw
2. Cueto
3. Sale
4. Arrieta
5. Syndergaard
6. Bumgarner
7. Nola
8. Quintana
9. Wright
10. Strasburg

If he has faced tougher offense, then it will balance out read the bold part of my quote

[opie1988]

LOL @ OP's poll.

1)Hamels
2)Darvish (small sample size, but we all know he's awesome)
3)Kershaw
4)Colby Lewis (I'm surprised too, but he's kicked ass)
5)Sale
6)Arrieta
7)Martin Perez
8)Cueto

You're welcome

[l7ustin]

LOL @ OP's poll.

1)Hamels
2)Darvish (small sample size, but we all know he's awesome)
3)Kershaw
4)Colby Lewis (I'm surprised too, but he's kicked ass)
5)Sale
6)Arrieta
7)Martin Perez
8)Cueto

You're welcome

The dutch oven threw a fukkin gem yesterday? No love?

[JArrieta49]

If he has faced tougher offense, then it will balance out read the bold part of my quote

You don't think someone gambling should take into account that one pitcher has faced a joke schedule and one pitcher has faced an elite schedule when evaluating the two?

[JArrieta49]

LOL @ OP's poll.

1)Hamels
2)Darvish (small sample size, but we all know he's awesome)
3)Kershaw
4)Colby Lewis (I'm surprised too, but he's kicked ass)
5)Sale
6)Arrieta
7)Martin Perez
8)Cueto

You're welcome

Hamels got his ass hole lit up last time out. But he was facing a real team from the NL Central, so that's not surprising. Don't worry, Arrieta will avenge Hamels next time he faces the Pirates.

[l7ustin]

You don't think someone gambling should take into account that one pitcher has faced a joke schedule and one pitcher has faced an elite schedule when evaluating the two?

You should read this list and be like OMG TOP 10 PITCHER NOLA IS GOING TONIGHT EVEN MONEY YAYYYY then look at who he is pitching against. Oh, Washington, average as fukk ill take my chances.

or top ten pitcher. cool. -150 is steep boston punishes the baseball, not worth it

[daneblazer]

Basing it off of this year so far...

Kershaw
Sale
Cueto
Stras
Arrieta
Bumgarner
Jo Fer
Rich Hill
Syndergaard
Tillman

[LT Profits]

In order of how good they have been this season.

Just bet on these guys and you will do fine.

1. Kershaw
2. Cueto
3. Sale
4. Arrieta
5. Syndergaard
6. Bumgarner
7. Nola
8. Quintana
9. Wright
10. Strasburg

xFIP is not a catch-all end-all, but it is a nice starting point. Top 10 in xFIP as of this second:

1. Kershaw 1.91
2. Syndergaard 1.98
3. Fernandez 2.53
4. Nola 2.59
5. Matz 2.85
6. Strasburg 2.93
7. Arrieta 3.11
8. Gray 3.14
9. Cueto 3.14
10. Price 3.19

The diamond in the ruff there is Jon Gray of Colorado,who goes tonight, in 8th.

So the OP's list is not bad at all, especially since he included Nola. The one disagreement I have is with Wright, I think he is a stiff that should come back to earth soon. As for the guys on the OP list not in the top 10 in xFIP, Sale is somehow 28th at 3.50 (I don't believe it either), Bumgarner is 22nd at 3.42 and Quintana is 24th (just ahead of Sale) at 3.46.

Wright does not belong, he is at 4.12.

[JArrieta49]

The problem with people who put so much focus on FIP or xFIP is that they refuse to account for the fact some people just know how to pitch to contact. If someone pitches to contact effectively for 3 years, at some point, you have to factor that into the eye test evaluation of a pitcher instead of think someone is getting lucky over 500 innings.

These stats were revolutionary, but now they're stale because people obsess over them.

Anyone who thinks Matz is better than Sale even arguably should honestly probably never bet baseball.

[trobin31]

Not taking any stats into account, given i look at baseball stats daily and know the who are league leaders in every major category, ie fip, siera, wOBa. Im listing by if i had a game today, who i would want on the mound to give me the best chance to win that game. Problem with stats are there are always teams that hit a particular pitcher well. For example Marlins seem to crush lefties who might even have the best curveball in the world. While even great hitting teams like pirates have problem with even a decent slider. My point is every game is different and you defintely wouldn't want Kershaw or Sale if you were facing the Marlins, while you'd be much better off with even Ruby Dela Rosa vs the pirates rather than Strasburg (who doesn't have a great slider).

1. Kershaw
2. Arrieta
3. Strasburg
4. Syndergaard
5. Degrom
6. Fernandez
7. Cole
8. Cueto
9. Scherzer
10. Bumgarner

[JArrieta49]

^ I like your list, but deGrom is way too high considering his drop in velocity this year.

[Chi_archie]

Arrieta blew his last big game

he'll blow alot more late this year as well

[slayer14]

Jose Fernendez a top 20 pitcher now for sure

[l7ustin]

Im gonna bump this thread and do another one in a few weeks. I only looked at the stats I did not look at names until I picked who I liked based on the numbers. Jarrieta (who may be slightly biased towards Jake Arrieta ) correctly pointed out that if the pitchers have been fortunate enough to go against easier opponents it could skew the statistics and while this is true, I feel like that is a bit of an excuse and it should balance out we are about one third through the MLB season

[KingJD31]

How big is arrietas rooster

The problem with people who put so much focus on FIP or xFIP is that they refuse to account for the fact some people just know how to pitch to contact. If someone pitches to contact effectively for 3 years, at some point, you have to factor that into the eye test evaluation of a pitcher instead of think someone is getting lucky over 500 innings.

These stats were revolutionary, but now they're stale because people obsess over them.

Anyone who thinks Matz is better than Sale even arguably should honestly probably never bet baseball.

[jose21_us]

Jose Fernendez a top 20 pitcher now for sure

Shit I would say top 5.

[trobin31]

^ I like your list, but deGrom is way too high considering his drop in velocity this year.

Degrom just had a kid at the beginning of the season. This happens to every man who has ever had their first child, let alone having to deal with health issues right away for the infant. Degrom is elite. Come September he will be considered a CY candidate.

[JArrieta49]

Degrom just had a kid at the beginning of the season. This happens to every man who has ever had their first child, let alone having to deal with health issues right away for the infant. Degrom is elite. Come September he will be considered a CY candidate.

There is only one CY candidate in the NL this year... he should win every first place vote barring an injury. Arrieta should probably win every 2nd place vote.

[DrunkHorseplayer]

Amazing how many dominant pitchers there are now; those steroid tests must be striking fear into hitters.

[LT Profits]

The problem with people who put so much focus on FIP or xFIP is that they refuse to account for the fact some people just know how to pitch to contact. If someone pitches to contact effectively for 3 years, at some point, you have to factor that into the eye test evaluation of a pitcher instead of think someone is getting lucky over 500 innings.

These stats were revolutionary, but now they're stale because people obsess over them.

Anyone who thinks Matz is better than Sale even arguably should honestly probably never bet baseball.

Oh I know, it was not meant to be a strict ranking in order. As I said, it was just a starting point. I don't REALLY believe Nola is the fourth best pitcher in baseball or Gray is the eighth best, and I certainly feel that Sale should be in top five. When I said OP's list seemed OK outside of Wright, I meant as a collection of Top 10 candidates not in specific order. The only thing you can say unequivocally is Kershaw is #1, after that you can rank the others however you choose.

My model rankings are different than the xFIP rankings, if I remember I will re-rank tomorrow since Arrieta is going tonight.

[l7ustin]

One of the things I looked at was complete games. It really pisses me off when games get turned over to the pen and you lose. Only four guys in the league have more than 1 complete game. I included all 4 in my top ten Kershaw Cueto Sale and Wright each have 3. I also weighed quality starts heavily because ERA and WHIP do not accurately portray consistency of a pitcher. If a guy gets bombed every 6 or 7 outings but pitches shutout baseball in the other 5 or 6 games hes not top ten material to me.

Wright had 9 quality starts in 10 games
Kershaw is 10/11
Quintana is 9/11
Cueto 9/11
Sale 9/11
Bum 9/11
Stras 9/11
Synder 8/10
Nola 8/10
Arieta only 7/10

[JArrieta49]

Quality starts doesn't tell the whole story either though.

Maddon has taken Arrieta out after 5, one where he hadn't even allowed a run just to save him because he knows Arrieta is going to be pitching deep in October if things go to plan. Don't want to blow his load in May. And the Cubs score usually for Arrieta, so the game is usually over when Joe is making his bullpen decisions.

[l7ustin]

Im not sure which start you are referring to on 4/28 he threw 5 IP gave up only 1 run but threw 92 pitches walked 4 struck out 6 3 hits. I think he was pulled due to pitch count and he didn't look sharp especially in the 5th inning

On 5/8 he was pulled after 5 IP when he gave up 3 runs 6 hits 7 Ks 4 BBs after 100 pitches

On 5/25 he was pulled after 5 IP after 93 pitches he gave up 4 runs 7 hits 1 BB 4 Ks.

All three non quality starts were pitch count related not an attempt to save him. He has not been as efficient this year as pointed out by Chi Archie in other threads

[JArrieta49]

Im not sure which start you are referring to on 4/28 he threw 5 IP gave up only 1 run but threw 92 pitches walked 4 struck out 6 3 hits. I think he was pulled due to pitch count and he didn't look sharp especially in the 5th inning

On 5/8 he was pulled after 5 IP when he gave up 3 runs 6 hits 7 Ks 4 BBs after 100 pitches

On 5/25 he was pulled after 5 IP after 93 pitches he gave up 4 runs 7 hits 1 BB 4 Ks.

All three non quality starts were pitch count related not an attempt to save him. He has not been as efficient this year as pointed out by Chi Archie in other threads

First of all, on 5/8, he gave up 2 ER, not 3... errors cost him that start and put a lot more pitches on his shoulder. Another reason quality start is a dumb stat... errors can make you not have a quality start, so it's a dumb pitching stat.

Secondly, on 4/28, he came out not because of the 92 pitches, but because it was 6-1 against the Brewers. Why not save his arm if you have the option? If it was 2-1, he stays in the game for the 6th 100%. That's 2 games where he pitched good enough for a quality start but didn't get it because of factors out of his control. Just kind of the point, it's a dumb stat for pitcher evaluation. Almost as dumb as wins.

[l7ustin]

First of all, on 5/8, he gave up 2 ER, not 3... errors cost him that start and put a lot more pitches on his shoulder. Another reason quality start is a dumb stat... errors can make you not have a quality start, so it's a dumb pitching stat.

Secondly, on 4/28, he came out not because of the 92 pitches, but because it was 6-1 against the Brewers. Why not save his arm if you have the option? If it was 2-1, he stays in the game for the 6th 100%. That's 2 games where he pitched good enough for a quality start but didn't get it because of factors out of his control. Just kind of the point, it's a dumb stat for pitcher evaluation. Almost as dumb as wins.

Its not a tell all stat but when used in conjunction with others I think it helps. Arrietas WAR is 10th and his xFIP puts him in 6th. It would be more fair to compare the stats after 11 starts to everyone elses, I did not realize that Wright Synder Nola and Arrieta had one less start until I typed out the other post above

[l7ustin]

Arrieta what would your top ten look like?

[JArrieta49]

1. Kershaw
2. Arrieta
3. Syndergaard
4. Sale
5. Bumgarner
6. Strasburg
7. Price
8. Kluber
9. Cueto
10. Fernandez
11. Quintana
12. Cole
13. Lester
14. Felix Hernandez
15. Salazar
16. Scherzer
17. Hamels
18. Archer
19. Hendricks
20. Matz

My list is less about how people have pitched more, and more based on how I expect them to pitch going forward, with recent history more heavily weighted.

The one surprise for most people is that most people probably don't know how good Kyle Hendricks is.