Time to start fading Jake Arrieta

Collapse
X
 
  • Time
  • Show
Clear All
new posts
  • d2bets
    BARRELED IN @ SBR!
    • 08-10-05
    • 39995

    #71
    And there's the 5-2. Addison Russell is a budding star.
    Comment
    • Ghenghis Kahn
      SBR Posting Legend
      • 01-02-12
      • 19734

      #72
      Originally posted by mikmik
      I hope Cubs win, 5-4 so we're all happy.
      most of us have the runline we're not gonna be happy with 5-4
      Comment
      • mikmik
        SBR Hall of Famer
        • 05-13-12
        • 5457

        #73
        Oh OK. Well I justjust have Cubs ml
        Comment
        • iloseagain
          Restricted User
          • 06-29-10
          • 10681

          #74
          6-2 i love it haha..
          Comment
          • KRIT
            SBR Posting Legend
            • 01-11-14
            • 12878

            #75
            I don't even look at Cubs lines anymore. They're like the Warriors, not point in fading them.
            Comment
            • ByeShea
              SBR Hall of Famer
              • 06-30-08
              • 8112

              #76
              Originally posted by smitch124
              Had to get off the juice for an upcoming test?
              That.

              I had a good laugh watching a baseball analyst explain arrieta turning from an expendable journeyman starter into an unprecedented pitching phenomenon at the age of 30 - "a light went on".

              That must be some potent wisdom Jake suddenly found.
              Comment
              • d2bets
                BARRELED IN @ SBR!
                • 08-10-05
                • 39995

                #77
                Originally posted by ByeShea
                That.

                I had a good laugh watching a baseball analyst explain arrieta turning from an expendable journeyman starter into an unprecedented pitching phenomenon - "a light went on".

                That's some explanation, some light.
                He was never a journeyman. He has only been in 2 organizations -- Balt and Chi. He was touted as a future Balt ace and was an opening day starter in Balt. He was inconsistent and went through some injuries. But he was always described as having great stuff and velocity and din't bounce around, so to describe him as a journeyman is asinine. He is certainly not the first pitcher to come into himself in his late 20's. And with what we've learned about how Balt treated him, it's not surprising. The light didn't come on , it was more like the shackles were taken off and he finally had support from his coaches. He began to turn it around pretty much as soon as he got out of Baltimore.
                Comment
                • iloseagain
                  Restricted User
                  • 06-29-10
                  • 10681

                  #78
                  Originally posted by iloseagain
                  8-1 final today
                  Comment
                  • Smoke
                    SBR Aristocracy
                    • 10-09-09
                    • 48111

                    #79
                    Originally posted by Smoke
                    stop
                    Comment
                    • jjgold
                      SBR Aristocracy
                      • 07-20-05
                      • 388179

                      #80
                      <iframe width="100%" height="160" src="https://clyp.it/yyobfgf2/widget" frameborder="0"></iframe>
                      Comment
                      • Chi_archie
                        SBR Aristocracy
                        • 07-22-08
                        • 63172

                        #81
                        Sorry JJ

                        This was humbling


                        someone give me a bailout
                        Comment
                        • iloseagain
                          Restricted User
                          • 06-29-10
                          • 10681

                          #82
                          guy pitched 8 innings. Gave up 2 runs on 3 hits in ONE inning and literally did not give up a hit in the other 7. Yea hes really going downhill. I could be wrong, but im pretty sure this is pretty damn accurate if its not 100% correct
                          Comment
                          • Smoke
                            SBR Aristocracy
                            • 10-09-09
                            • 48111

                            #83
                            Originally posted by iloseagain
                            guy pitched 8 innings. Gave up 2 runs on 3 hits in ONE inning and literally did not give up a hit in the other 7. Yea hes really going downhill. I could be wrong, but im pretty sure this is pretty damn accurate if its not 100% correct
                            Archie works for the books
                            Comment
                            • iloseagain
                              Restricted User
                              • 06-29-10
                              • 10681

                              #84
                              Originally posted by Smoke
                              Archie works for the books
                              lol.. people also seem to forget that the cubs have a top 2 offense in baseball.. Arrieta can have a "bad" game (aka 3-4 ER) and still win 8-4. If you want to fade him, dont do it against Locke. Do it against someone who at least can get people out. Hes terrible.
                              Comment
                              • Smoke
                                SBR Aristocracy
                                • 10-09-09
                                • 48111

                                #85
                                Originally posted by iloseagain
                                lol.. people also seem to forget that the cubs have a top 2 offense in baseball.. Arrieta can have a "bad" game (aka 3-4 ER) and still win 8-4. If you want to fade him, dont do it against Locke. Do it against someone who at least can get people out. Hes terrible.
                                Locke is trash
                                Comment
                                • Chi_archie
                                  SBR Aristocracy
                                  • 07-22-08
                                  • 63172

                                  #86
                                  Originally posted by d2bets
                                  And there's the 5-2. Addison Russell is a budding star.
                                  yeah Russell is starting to heat up
                                  Comment
                                  • d2bets
                                    BARRELED IN @ SBR!
                                    • 08-10-05
                                    • 39995

                                    #87
                                    Looks like Arrieta's next start will be in SF against Samardzija. Shark been good lately. That game shouldn't be a huge road line. I'd guess Arrieta -140 or so with a very small total, like 6.5.
                                    Comment
                                    • astro61200
                                      SBR MVP
                                      • 09-15-07
                                      • 4843

                                      #88
                                      Anyone think Arrieta can get to 30 wins?
                                      Comment
                                      • d2bets
                                        BARRELED IN @ SBR!
                                        • 08-10-05
                                        • 39995

                                        #89
                                        Originally posted by astro61200
                                        Anyone think Arrieta can get to 30 wins?
                                        lol

                                        nobody will ever win 30 again, but we can discuss 25 as a possible target. But with an eye on the playoffs, the Cubs won't let him start 33 again. Probably like 31 starts.
                                        Comment
                                        • Smoke
                                          SBR Aristocracy
                                          • 10-09-09
                                          • 48111

                                          #90
                                          Originally posted by astro61200
                                          Anyone think Arrieta can get to 30 wins?
                                          Comment
                                          • pimike
                                            BARRELED IN @ SBR!
                                            • 03-23-08
                                            • 37140

                                            #91
                                            Lke I said , no....

                                            Lmao ughh

                                            Comment
                                            • trobin31
                                              SBR Hall of Famer
                                              • 01-09-14
                                              • 9854

                                              #92
                                              Originally posted by Chi_archie
                                              Sorry JJ

                                              This was humbling


                                              someone give me a bailout
                                              Yankees (Tanaka)
                                              Comment
                                              • astro61200
                                                SBR MVP
                                                • 09-15-07
                                                • 4843

                                                #93
                                                Another easy RL win with Arrieta on the mound.. betting on him is about as close to printing money as you can get. Payday comes again on Wednesday.
                                                Comment
                                                • Smoke
                                                  SBR Aristocracy
                                                  • 10-09-09
                                                  • 48111

                                                  #94
                                                  Time to start fading lol
                                                  Comment
                                                  • CanuckG
                                                    SBR Posting Legend
                                                    • 12-23-10
                                                    • 21978

                                                    #95
                                                    SF can rally
                                                    Comment
                                                    • No coincidences
                                                      SBR Aristocracy
                                                      • 01-18-10
                                                      • 76300

                                                      #96
                                                      Arrieta was actually hit pretty hard last night. The defense saved his bacon on multiple occasions.

                                                      Aside from being really good, he's one of the luckiest pitchers I've ever seen, too.
                                                      Comment
                                                      • SteezW
                                                        SBR Hustler
                                                        • 04-24-16
                                                        • 50

                                                        #97
                                                        Correct me if I'm wrong but I think they showed a stat last night that Arrieta is batting 5 for 11 this year with RISP too. 4 RBIs on the year including that 440ft bomb against Arizona
                                                        Comment
                                                        • JArrieta49
                                                          SBR High Roller
                                                          • 05-14-16
                                                          • 155

                                                          #98
                                                          Originally posted by No coincidences
                                                          Arrieta was actually hit pretty hard last night. The defense saved his bacon on multiple occasions.

                                                          Aside from being really good, he's one of the luckiest pitchers I've ever seen, too.
                                                          He's not even the luckiest pitcher in Chicago this year. In fact, by the numbers, he's the 4th luckiest starting pitcher in Chicago behind Sale, Lester, and Latos.
                                                          Comment
                                                          • jjgold
                                                            SBR Aristocracy
                                                            • 07-20-05
                                                            • 388179

                                                            #99
                                                            Archie your hurting us

                                                            explanation?
                                                            Comment
                                                            • Mxs1332
                                                              SBR Wise Guy
                                                              • 03-08-16
                                                              • 661

                                                              #100
                                                              Originally posted by jjgold
                                                              Archie your hurting us

                                                              explanation?
                                                              - dunno what was said but i'm riding the train so long as its going



                                                              Sale, Arrieta, Kershaw have been locks this yr


                                                              I'll consider playing a few others based upon the match up
                                                              Strasburg, Scherzer, Kluber, Cueto
                                                              Comment
                                                              • d2bets
                                                                BARRELED IN @ SBR!
                                                                • 08-10-05
                                                                • 39995

                                                                #101
                                                                Originally posted by No coincidences
                                                                Arrieta was actually hit pretty hard last night. The defense saved his bacon on multiple occasions.

                                                                Aside from being really good, he's one of the luckiest pitchers I've ever seen, too.
                                                                You see what you want to see.
                                                                Comment
                                                                • Smoke
                                                                  SBR Aristocracy
                                                                  • 10-09-09
                                                                  • 48111

                                                                  #102
                                                                  Archie don't do it
                                                                  Comment
                                                                  • astro61200
                                                                    SBR MVP
                                                                    • 09-15-07
                                                                    • 4843

                                                                    #103
                                                                    Originally posted by No coincidences
                                                                    Arrieta was actually hit pretty hard last night. The defense saved his bacon on multiple occasions.

                                                                    Aside from being really good, he's one of the luckiest pitchers I've ever seen, too.
                                                                    BABIP is really low, so he won't be THIS good all season but his FIP is still 2.50, still averaging more than 2 GBs for every FB. He's received 63 runs of RS in 9 starts (7 runs per game). His velocity is still pretty much the same on all his pitches. His ERA+ is 314.

                                                                    Could, easily, see his BABIP climb with a single bad start (he is human after all). His peripherals are pretty much in line with 2015 and 2014.

                                                                    No reason to hop off the train, it might have a couple of bumps this year but it's as close to a sure thing as there is right now. Could easily see him winning another Cy Young, getting around 25-27 W's, and the Cubs going something like 30-2 in games he starts, along with 25-7 against the RL.

                                                                    Oh, and his FIP last night was 1.66.
                                                                    Comment
                                                                    • astro61200
                                                                      SBR MVP
                                                                      • 09-15-07
                                                                      • 4843

                                                                      #104
                                                                      Here is his line over the past 365 days (as of May 23rd, since he wont start before then):


                                                                      34 starts, 26-2 record, 240 IP, 141 H, 56 BB (0.82 WHIP), 10 HR, 38 ER (45 R), 244 Ks, 9.15 K/9, 2.10 BB/9, 0.37 HR/9, .224 BABIP, 1.42 ERA, 2.42 FIP, 2.70 xFIP.


                                                                      Put the cutoff at July '15 to now and here's what you get:


                                                                      27 starts, 23-1 record, 194 IP, 102 H, 45 BB (0.76 WHIP), 4 HR, 22 ER (26 R), 196 Ks, 9.09 K/9, 2.09 BB/9, 0.19 HR/9, .209 BABIP, 1.02 ERA, 2.14 FIP, 2.61 xFIP


                                                                      So why would someone fade him again? If the dude doesn't give up an earned run in his next start his ERA over the past 28 starts will be BELOW 1. That's fkn insane. ERA doesn't mean a whole lot but when you're talking about sub-1 over 28 starts it does, could be the best run by a SP in the HISTORY of the MLB.

                                                                      If he keeps this, or close to this, up for the year then he should be the MVP, hands down.

                                                                      Comment
                                                                      • JArrieta49
                                                                        SBR High Roller
                                                                        • 05-14-16
                                                                        • 155

                                                                        #105
                                                                        Composure is something FIP will never account for.
                                                                        Comment
                                                                        Search
                                                                        Collapse
                                                                        SBR Contests
                                                                        Collapse
                                                                        Top-Rated US Sportsbooks
                                                                        Collapse
                                                                        Working...