If a team hopes to beat Warriors in playoffs, they'll need to win twice in Oakland

[existential]

Reasoning is, Warriors won't lose all 3 road games in a 7 game series.

Conservatively speaking, all they need to do each series is go 3-1 at home and 1-2 on the road.

Keep in mind two other things: Warriors haven't lost at home this season or B2B on the road.

[goduke]

No one is beating the warriors in the playoffs in a series. Why is this even up for debate in so many threads?

[existential]

because i'm sure enough people will wager against the Warriors based on the theory that "it'll only take 1 home loss by the Warriors to turn the series into a +EV proposition". when in fact, 1 Warriors loss at home would mean very little.

to go one step further, it could be argued that even 2 losses at home by the Warriors might still not make the series a 50/50 proposition. in that case, the Warriors would just need to go 2-1 on the road to win the series.. certainly not an impossible task for them.

the only theoretically 'sharp' angle at this point is that the Warriors could crash and burn in the playoffs due to all the physical and mental energy they expended during the regular season. but how sharp is that line of thinking in reality?.. maybe a little, but probably only a little bit more sharp than, for example, betting against the Warriors expecting Curry to get hurt.

[rm18]

No one is beating the warriors in the playoffs in a series. Why is this even up for debate in so many threads?

What? Warriors are +$ to win the title if you have a million you can win over a million on it if it is so likely.

[Seto]

Reasoning is, Warriors won't lose all 3 road games in a 7 game series.

Conservatively speaking, all they need to do each series is go 3-1 at home and 1-2 on the road.

Keep in mind two other things: Warriors haven't lost at home this season or B2B on the road.

Regular season stats are meaningless so I'd disregard that last sentence.

The important point you're making here is obviously that homecourt matters a lot. I often hear it doesn't matter but when you look at how many game 7's are won by the home team, it obviously does.

I don't think there's any reason to believe a team can't win 3 straight against them at home. I get that you're trying to say there'll be one of the 3 road games where they will get hot from 3 but each game is an individual entity, and you can't say a team winning 3 times in a row on their home floor is that crazy of an idea.

At the end of the day, the best team usually wins in a 7 game series. The last series I can remember where you could make a strong point the better team lost over the 7 games was Spurs/Heat in 2013.

[Seto]

What? Warriors are +$ to win the title if you have a million you can win over a million on it if it is so likely.

Exactly.

[Educ8d Degener8]

What? Warriors are +$ to win the title if you have a million you can win over a million on it if it is so likely.

What book has em +money?

[R.P. McMurphy]

-130 @ dimes no way any books do unless they are morons. Only team capable would be Spurs I know they were ran outta gym last gm but only squad in nba to have success vs Gsw last 2 seasons and won't be pushed around or intimidated like rest. I can see a Manning send off for Duncan and wouldn't be too shocked and Gsw buries public like Carolina in WCF.

[goduke]

What? Warriors are +$ to win the title if you have a million you can win over a million on it if it is so likely.

dont have a million sir. I do have 25k on it between dimes and Bookmaker. I'm comfortable with that. Curry or draymond injury is the only way they dont win it all though. This is the nba its predictable and has been for the last 8 years with who the champ will be.

[jjgold]

Duke nail this

[RavensFan2k3]

Thank you captain obvious

[iloseagain]

i got warriors +300 to win title on November 25th

[existential]

Regular season stats are meaningless so I'd disregard that last sentence.

meaningless? yes and no, but i do see your point.

I don't think there's any reason to believe a team can't win 3 straight against them at home. I get that you're trying to say there'll be one of the 3 road games where they will get hot from 3 but each game is an individual entity, and you can't say a team winning 3 times in a row on their home floor is that crazy of an idea.

strongly disagree, due to the Warriors offensive scheme. the thing about the Warriors is that they always get clean looks regardless of who's on the floor for them and regardless of the defensive scheme they face. everyone on their roster passes and cuts. of course clean looks don't guarantee made shots (in these rare instances where they don't make shots, the Warriors lose games), but getting clean shots in basketball is the ultimate neutralizer because it's an aspect of their game that always travels well (just like in the NFL, a great running game always travels well).

this is why i'm saying that it would be incredibly naive to think that only 1 home loss by the Warriors would be the difference maker. i don't think a single home loss would matter at all since i'd be willing to bet that the Warriors would win at least 1 road game every series.

hell, i wouldn't necessarily be willing to bet against the Warriors even if i knew that they would lose 2 home games. and for me, that's something that i've never come across when thinking about playoff matchup outcomes.

this has me stumped because i'm trying to figure out what series prices for the Warriors' opponents could actually represent value? does anyone have any answers?

[new era]

So the only hope to beat the Warriors is to win more games than them.

[hartgers]

dont know why people trying to find reasons to bet against warriors, i am riding them all the way to another title

[The Giant]

Spurs are 28-0 at home. They could conceivably (probably not, but whatever) win all three games at home.

I think the only team that has a fighting chance against Golden State is Cleveland.

[existential]

dont know why people trying to find reasons to bet against warriors, i am riding them all the way to another title

it's not about finding reasons to bet against them, it's about trying to figure out what price would actually hold value if doing so.

[pavyracer]

Lebron will beat them twice in Oakland and lose thrice in Cleveland.

[sando]

All I know is that this is the first time in a long time that the two best teams (by far) in the NBA will not be meeting in the NBA finals...

[INVEGA MAN]

What is scary is they can do it even when Curry has a bad game. Team is unbelievable. If they are down 20 early in the 3rd quarter, they are still in the game

[existential]

Spurs are 28-0 at home. They could conceivably (probably not, but whatever) win all three games at home.

Yes, while they're also still undefeated at home, Spurs' home schedule hasn't been impressive to this point. Against currently top seeded teams thus far, they've only beaten at home:

1. Clippers by 8
2. Cavs by 4

I really need to see how they do at home in these remaining games:

3/12 - OKC
3/15 - Clippers
3/19 - Warriors
4/2 - Raptors
4/10 - Warriors
4/12 - OKC

Let's see if they can dominate or at least really control most of those home games.

We already know that they've been absolutely destroyed on the road against the Clippers, Warriors, and Cavs.

Spurs still have a ton to prove in the regular season before one can decide if they're worth backing against the Warriors (or a healthy Clips).

[lakerboy]

Spurs will one the title. It's kinda obvious. +200 to win.

Gs will not beat SAS in a series if both teams are healthy.

Spurs are way smarter. Warriors are just shooters.

Spurs are a complete team.

[Don_Omarion]

Spurs will one the title. It's kinda obvious. +200 to win.

Gs will not beat SAS in a series if both teams are healthy.

Spurs are way smarter. Warriors are just shooters.

Spurs are a complete team.

best writing

agree %100

[existential]

Spurs will one the title. It's kinda obvious. +200 to win.

Gs will not beat SAS in a series if both teams are healthy.

Spurs are way smarter. Warriors are just shooters.

Spurs are a complete team.

i've wanted to believe that all season, but just can't currently.

Spurs simply haven't dominated any 'top' teams yet, but they have been destroyed by some.

let's see how they look in those 6 remaining home games against the best in the league. they also have a few more road games against top teams.

i'm not a believer the Spurs can defend their homecourt against the Warriors. and i believe even less that the Spurs could win twice in Oakland. and that's what they'd have to do if the Warriors won even once on the road.

outside of unforced turnovers on offense, the only real weakness of the Warriors is defending the paint. but only Duncan plays down there whereas Aldridge is a 20 foot jump shooter who plays no defense and can't help protect the rim. as for Parker, he's a massive liability on defense. Duncan, Leonard, and Green are their only good defenders. West is pretty decent as well.

[rm18]

Ginobili is a good defender.

[existential]

^^ not so much anymore. and that's why Spurs really wanted Kevin Martin because Pop hopes he can be Green's backup and only use Ginobili when they go small.

[goduke]

how long is it going to take before people realize that the warriors are quite incredible? I guess ill just wait till the end. Hopefully people will realize then but the chance to make money off it will be gone

[R.P. McMurphy]

Like I said Spurs only team with a shot just look up how they fared past 2 years vs Gsw including winning in Oakland. If Leonard is healthy and the way they are playing defense right now , and experience factor I give them best shot. Put Cavs 3rd sure they have LeBron and "big 3 sorta" but has anyone ever seen a team with their talent and record more dysfunctional at times?

[rpesi9955]

Spurs are old. They can't run with the Warriors period.

[CJ]

Spurs are old. They can't run with the Warriors period.

You realize Kawhi and Aldridge are their stars now?

[YouHave2outs]

What? Warriors are +$ to win the title if you have a million you can win over a million on it if it is so likely.

Exactly.

why do people keep saying this?

they haven't been plus money in over a month.

[k13]

-130 @ dimes no way any books do unless they are morons. Only team capable would be Spurs I know they were ran outta gym last gm but only squad in nba to have success vs Gsw last 2 seasons and won't be pushed around or intimidated like rest. I can see a Manning send off for Duncan and wouldn't be too shocked and Gsw buries public like Carolina in WCF.

Books still have +100 at least...
Last week they had them at +115...

Anyway, one injury and they lose.

[k13]

why do people keep saying this?

they haven't been plus money in over a month.

Sure they have...I got +115 last week...

[dmncnlou]

Regular season means absolutely nothing come playoff time!.

[rm18]

Also if you take them to win West and bet them in Finals it often will pay better.