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A Morning Consult poll, released Friday, surveyed 504 registered voters who watched Wednesday’s Republican primary debate and has only good news for Republican frontrunner Donald Trump and Carly Fiorina. While the poll’s sample size is small (with a 4.4% margin of error), the poll’s trend is worth noting.
In this same poll, prior to Wednesday night’s debate, Trump sat at 33% support. Dr. Ben Carson sat in second place with 17% support. Today Trump enjoys 36% support. Carson is still in second place but with just 12% support.
Trump’s lead increased from +16 points to +24%. That’s an +8% jump.
With their shared status as outsiders, it appears as though Carson’s support went to Fiorina. Prior to the debate the former-Hewlett Packard CEO had just 3% support. She now sits in third place with 10%, only -2 points behind second place Carson.
Overall, the Republican Establishment is the Big Loser here. Non-politicians Trump, Carson and Fiorina command 58% of the vote, and that piece of the pie is only growing larger.
Rubio also enjoyed a boost from 2% to 9%. This puts the Florida Senator in 4th place.
Texas Senator Sen. Ted Cruz (R-TX)96%is in 5th place with 7% support. Everyone else is bunched up at 6% or below.A plurality of 29% believe Fiorina won the debate. Trump came in 2nd with 24%. Carson came in 3rd with just 7%.Fiorina’s favorability rating jumped from 37% to 56%. Her unfavorable sits at just 28%. Carson does best on this question with a 79% favorable rating. Trump comes in 2nd with 67%. Only 30% see Trump as unfavorable.Sen. Rand Paul (R-KY)93%, and John Kasich scored the worst with 38%, and 40% favorable ratings, respectively. Jeb Bush, Chris Christie, and Scott Walker are all tied up with a 50% favorable rating.Comment -
It's tough being right.
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What's surprising to me, is that Jindal seemed to be on a track as few as a years ago. As did Perry...as did Walker. Now they are are either close to 0 or have dropped out. It's a unique situation, as the early months are usually spent trying to build face/name recognition. Trump had both going in, so while a guy like Walker or Kasich might actually eat Trump alive in a one on one debate, he has enough of a lead that right now their either playing for VP, or scared they won't make the next debate and are hoping others will drop out where they'll pick up support purely through attrition.
Trump cancelled for one reason only. He knows he'd be grilled about last night and he's not ready. Same reason he claimed the bible verse question was a "gotcha" question and too personal to answer, but was happy to name his favorite bible verse a short time later when he'd had time to prepare.
Just watch. He'll never apologize (not his M.O.) for last night, but he'll work on a soft landing followed by his usual ego riff.
"listen, I meant that everyone deserves a voice, and every question should be answered. The other side likes to shut people up. I never said I agreed with what the gentleman said. I don't see you asking these sorts of questions to Hillary. Last time I was in XYZ your company came to me looking for advertising. I did a great deal while I was here. Frankly, that's what I do. It's not bragging, but I'm one of the smartest people in the world. You don't get into Wharton without being extremely intelligent."Comment -
The man is an entertainer. I agree with you on the no apology. I actually think he's licking his chops to make this a big issue. Don't be surprised if he isn't analyzing everything he can on the stories about these so-called terror camps inside our borders. Wouldn't be shocked if he comes up with a long laundry list of how Obama has done deals to sympathize with Muslim extremists. Might say something along the lines of he has no idea which God Obama prays to, and that it's really not his business. It's between Obama, and his God, but look what he's done with the deal for Bergdahl. Look at the Iran deal. Look at this. Look at that. I think this will become his next big topic, next to immigration.Comment -
Maybe. It'd surprise me. Right now he's kind of doing the Michael Jackson and only listening to people he appointed. No problem at first (especially with a lead), but eventually he'll need the ground crews who are part of the establishment he rails against. He may have a hate on for guys like Frank Luntz, but the truth is, Luntz can read a group and can grasp the general mood (and then play off it) better than most,
If (big if) Trump plays the card you mentioned, there isn't much upside. He's already got that crowd locked down.
Hillary tried playing the fear card against Obama, as did McCain, as did Romney. There's definitely a segment of the population who sees terror around every corner, but catering to them won't be enough to get elected (in my opinion).
Russell Moore is a pretty influential evangelical who spoke out this week and basically called out Trump as a phony Christian. Trump is relying on them a la Bush-1 and if that base starts to show cracks, it's going to make his path a lot more difficult.Comment -
I agree that I think he is phony on the Christian issue. I cringed hearing him say his favorite book was the Bible. It just came across as extremely fake. But think of this. What if he takes a hard stance on Muslim extremists, and how they are persecuting Christians world wide, and how that is going to continue, and maybe even cross our borders if this is not made a priority. With his bully pulpit, he could win a lot of the Christian vote without having to quote a Bible verse again. I know a lot of gun toting, southern Christians that would ride with that.Comment -
Again though, I think he has the majority of the Southern Xian gun vote tied up.
Prior to his launch speech, he very well could have been a candidate that could secure enough latino votes to offset their recent voting migration. However, he'll have to appoint a latino VP now to try and shore up that bloc. Better make it a good choice though. GOP figured having Palin on the ticket would automatically swing a huge bloc of female votes, but just like people who think blacks would automatically support Cain or Carson, they really don't get it and are proven wrong in a big way.
Who knows. If things were as bad as folks like Dwight and others wished they were, maybe the country would tilt towards this new world Burlosconi, but the fact is, they aren't. 7 years ago there was talk of suspending campaigns to deal with the cascading bank and insurance failures. Every metric pointed to an inevitable long recession and possible depression. The never ending bank failures, entire auto industry being given last rights.
The fact of the matter is, when you carry the debt we do, just the interest will make it unrealistic to imagine it will ever be paid off (or even down). The next POTUS will have the debt climb at his/her own record number, again, purely because of the interest.
Everyone believed both parties when guys like Ross Perot spoke about how these free trade agreements with countries who pay slave wages would play out. Now we're an economy built around 99 cent stores, payday loans and fast food. Not hard to fathom why wages aren't rising.
With that being said, things are not where they were 8 years ago. The folks who hated Obama on day 1 still hate him, the bulk of people who liked him on day 1, still like him. Barring some big campaign against Obama, you'll see him out campaigning next year and will be a force in the election (as opposed to GW and Clinton who were asked to go AWOL)
Running on fear and trying to convince people to trust a guy repping for the party that was behind the wheel when we hit the ditch is going to be a tough sell.Last edited by muldoon; 09-18-15, 07:42 PM.Comment -
I'm not religious, but i get the pandering thing politically. Obama was crucified (pun intended, but appropriate) when he gave that "it's above my pay grade" response about abortion (I think it was when Rick Warren was doing his Q&A).
Two things surprised me.
#1, how quiet the evangelical community was to how phony/fake Trump appeared.
#2, how a guy sits down with a religious Q&A and doesn't even have a "John 3:16" safety valve at the ready. As stated, I'm not religious, but I've seen it at enough football games and on bumper stickers to know that's one that'll play well with that crowd.Comment -
what does this moron dwight think about the fact that trump started some shitty for-profit school and scammed a bunch of halfwits into paying him thousands of dollars for stuff they never received?Comment -
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New: 87 Deceased NFL Players Test Positive for Brain Disease
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Trump just gives the neocons FITS by talking like this.
“I think I’d get along very well with Vladimir Putin. I just think so. People say, ‘What do you mean?’ I think I would get along well with him.”
^ with this statement, Trump separates himself by miles apart from all other Republican candidates
with the lone exceptions of Rand Paul and John Kasich.
“I think his dislike of President Obama is so intense that it really has affected the whole relationship. We've driven them into the arms of China, so that now these two are together, which has always been the great sin. Don't ever let Russia and China get together. We've driven them together. I think he is somebody that I would have a very decent relationship with if I ever win,” he said.
^ Notice how Don is not blaming Russia here. He is blaming the actions of the U.S.
"I would talk to him, I would get along with him. I believe, and I may be wrong, in which case I'd probably have to take a different path, but I would get along with a lot of the world leaders that this country is not getting along with," he continued.
TRUMP: I will get along — I think — with Putin, and I will get along with others, and we will have a much more stable — stable world.
TAPPER: So, you — just to clarify, the only answer I heard to the question I asked is that you would — you would reach out to Vladimir Putin, and you would do what? You would…
TRUMP: I believe that I will get along — we will do — between that, Ukraine, all of the other problems, we won’t have the kind of problems that our country has right now with Russia and many other nations.
TAPPER: Senator Rubio, you’ve taken a very different approach to the — the question of Russia. You’ve called Vladimir Putin a, quote, “gangster.”
FIORINA: Having met Vladimir Putin, I wouldn’t talk to him at all. We’ve talked way too much to him.
Putin, Trump said, "has no respect for our president whatsoever. He’s got a tremendous popularity in Russia, they love what he’s doing, they love what he represents. I was over in Moscow two years ago and I will tell you — you can get along with those people and get along with them well. You can make deals with those people. Obama can’t."
Trump said he's willing to bet he would have a "great relationship with Putin."Comment -
Donald Trump Will Likely Meet with Russian President Vladimir Putin in New York City This Month
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The press is desperate!
Donald J. Trump
- Am I morally obligated to defend the President every time somebody says something bad or controversial about him? I don't think so!
- This is the first time in my life that I have caused controversy by NOT saying something.
- If someone made a nasty or controversial statement about me to the President, do you really think he would come to my rescue? No chance!
If I would have challenged the man, the media would have accused me of interfering with that man's right of free speech. A no win situation!
Last edited by DwightShrute; 09-19-15, 10:55 AM.Comment - Am I morally obligated to defend the President every time somebody says something bad or controversial about him? I don't think so!
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Trump has a year to tune up his political game.. He's working on this his foreign relations now with this Putin thing.. Smart play as many consider that to be Trumps biggest weakness.
I think Trump is still learning on the fly right now..He'll catch up to the field in a years time when the chips are on the table and when the hard questions are being asked.. Just gotta hope Trump doesn't burn out and quit if he hits a down peak in the polls at some point.. He doesn't seem like a quitter to me though.. Too much invested now..Comment -
Love the logan act referenceComment -
why? Truthfully, it was more poor logic from muldoon. Like when he compared trump to bloomberg, or Obamacare to hillarycare and the republicans response; just very poor logic. Any idea of the last time the Logan Act was used? I didn't have a date in mind but I was relatively close. Hint; it was a long time ago...
Either way if you love the Logan Act then you'll get a kick out Pelosi's trip to Syria in 2007.Comment -
Absolutely she should have been charged with violation of it. Pretty clear cut by definition.
Then again, the entire GOP is built around jerking off on the corpse of Astrology-Ronnie (Iran just "happened" to release hostages minutes after inauguration) and previously Nixon and his pre-election Vietnam "negotiations".
Then again, this is the same party having a stroke about Hillary's emails, when they had their own server and deleted how many million emails again?Last edited by muldoon; 09-19-15, 02:00 PM.Comment -
I'll say this - if Trump wins the Republican Nomination he will most likely win Presidency.. Reasons, because he's the one Republican running that will be capable of reeling in a great portion of the Democratic votes... Can't say the same for all the other Republicans in contention...
I'd say Trump is the best chance for the next Republican President by a land slide actually.. Not sure Rubio or Jeb can pull in those Democratic votes like Donald Trump can.. If you're Republican you should hope that Trump wins the Republican Nomination.. He'll beat out Hillary Clinton and or (Joe Biden if he finally decides to run) where as Rubio or Jeb might really struggle to beat out either of those 2 in the end.....
Gotta ask yourself who would you rather see as next President, Donald Trump or Hillary Clinton/Joe Biden?Last edited by JIBBBY; 09-19-15, 02:27 PM.Comment -
ya I guess most people are just used to the typical politician reply to anything. Long winded and rarely honest. You have it wrong actually, 12-year-olds lie all the time until they become adults, at which time the lying is usually less. With the exception of politicians. King Obama case and point.
I respect a man that defends himself when attacked and doesn't need a teleprompter or a political advisor to edit every word that he utters. How refreshing. A man with honor and conviction. A successful man who wont have to payback donors when elected president. You all should be on the Trump bandwagon.Comment -
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Trump has gotten along with all sorts of people from all over the world. No reason to doubt his confidence.Comment
