Laker game like a preseason exhibition. Should breeze over
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^
You would think.
I got a little play on the over there.
Baseball plays are 2 out of 3 so far, 'Zona pending.Comment -
Yep, good to see. Their problem is Anderson barely made it through the 5th. It's a repeat of last year. Bullpen is going to get a shit ton of work again.Originally posted by stevenashGoldschmidt with the stick.
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Hey, was Just wondering if the Astros play would count towards ur record. Thanks !!Comment -
The Astro game was not posted here before game time, so I doesn't count on SBR, only in my pocket does it count.Originally posted by Pete0
Caught a break at the end Laker game to hit the over.Comment -
Good hit on the SnakesComment -
anything stick out for Saturday?
El Nino's boy Archie Bradley is going to attempt to take down Goliath on Saturday.Comment -
Bumgarner andPrice(Sbrodds showed him going against House, not Kluber) are small favs today???... trap or big play opportunities?Comment -
Neither, flip a coin play.Originally posted by broadway6
Grab a bud and enjoy the game play.
Looking at Cole Hammel to shut down the shitty Nats.
(but it's the Phils.)
Or are the Phils going to be 'that' team this year.
You know, the team you bet on, they lose, the team you fade, they win.
You know, 'that team'.Comment -
I coached Archie in HS...I put $200 on the Backs ML.Originally posted by Big BearComment -
Originally posted by stevenash
i hate that teamComment -
Fade the Nats until the prove they can hit..7 runs in 4 games....bunch of bumsComment -
KC going for 6 straight - Royals +104 v. Angels
Unreal, my darlings from last year pick up right where they left off.
Going to ride them today. for a few reasons.
1) I love that team. (not a reason to bet them)
2) I was a little weary of the Rios and Morales pickups, but all they have been doing the first week is do what they get paid to do. Hit. Both of them. One is 8 for 20, the other is 6 for 20 .300/.400 Both have homered.
3) Lo-Cain is proving me right so far, I said he's going to have a break out season this year, off to a great start,
He's also 8 for 20, and showing the power I knew he had.
4) The whole team is .300 or better (7 of the regulars) granted it's only the first week, but still.
Alex Gordon is off to as slow start, not worried about him, he's a proven hitter, and Infante is off to a slow start, don't care, he gets paid to pick up ground balls at 2B, and he's doing that just fine.
5) Sal Perez is proving he is the best catche in the AL. Has homered twice. Plus his amazing defense.
6) The lights out bullpen, the best bullpen this generation might ever see, are doing it again.
HDH combination, Herrera, Davis, Holland in 10 innings have given up 3 hits, no earned runs, or any runs, struck out 11 in 10 innings, walked just one batter, saved four out of five wins.
7) Ace Ventura gets the ball today, throws 100, the only concern is the heater has limited movement, but no opposing batter has exploited that yet, so I'll keep riding him until the league catches up to him.
The league eventually will I think, but they haven't yet.
8) If KC gets has the lead after six in Anaheim today, who ya going to call? Well you could call the Ghostbusters, but any KC lead after six innings is pretty much automatic with the HDH boys.
9) KC hits CJ Wilson.
Now, I am going to explain my point of view for the 1000th time.
I place some weight on BvP (batter versus pitcher) or simply put what a particular batter has done against a particular pitcher in the past. I do not believe it is the be all end all of all statistics, it's not, it's not even my go to stat when handicapping a game. What it is (to me) is an indiication that a particular batter is comfortable against a certain pitcher. I believe in the adage history tends to repeat itself, if a batter is 20 for 50 lifetiime against a certain pitcher, the trend is he may go 2 for 5 against him again the next time he sees him. He could go 0 for 4, but the trend is 2 for 5.
Now many smart bettors have argued with me BvP is meaningless, and they have backed up their argument with sound reasoning, I get that, to me, BvP is not meaningless, and I will continue to use it in my handicapping.
I will only use BvP in my handicapping if the sample size is large enough. If a hitter is 4 for 5 lifetime, that is not large enough. But I want to make clear don't bet a game just on BvP alone, I use that stat as and indicator only.
OK, for instance, Alex Rios is 8 for 21 lifetime against CJ Wilson. .381, walked twice .480 OBA
He has homered twice off of Rios, driven in 5.
Would you say Rios is comfortable facing Wilson (I would considering he's only K'd once)
And Rios has two stolen bases off of Wilson, so based on the information given, Rios gets on base almost half the time he faces Wison (.480 OBA) hits Wilson, one K in 24 PA's, and when he gets on, as the 2 swipes suggest, reads CJ like a picture book.
Another example, the Royals new DH Kendry Morales, is 10 for 28 lifetime with a homer off of Wilson.
He's only struck out once also like Rios.
Now, I am not going to say the aforementioned batters *own* Wilson, but I can accuratelly say, those two have had proven success against him in the past.
That is my point when I bring up BvP in my handicapping, I believe BvP, with a large enough sample size should be a factor when breaking down a game, but I believe there are at least 6 other more important factors that should be used before going to BvP.
Lorenzo Cain is 4 for 7 off of Wilson, I won't use that as an idicator, but you like to see that anyway when breaking down a daily game. Cain could easily take a 0 for 4 collar.
OK, I can write this game up until the cows come home, but I think I already have.
Ventura matches up well against CJ Wilson.
KC is 5 and 0, and I am not going to fade a 5 and 0 team, not that team with that lights out bullpen.
Angels are 2 and 3, have looked lackluster so far, winless at home, and have distractions, the Hamilton thing being one of them.
I'm expecting a team, hitting out of their shoes right now (KC) with a bullpen blessed by God Almighty himself, to notch their 6th stright to open the year.
If I'm wrong, so be it, the creek won't rise, the sun won't fry, and it will rise again in the east Monday morning.
That is a lock, the KC Royals are not a lock, but a good baseball wager on paper going in.
Best of luck.
KC +104
(if you are wondering, I am 8 and 6 for the first week, but show a +5.15 * profit, all wagers are 2*, but two winner of those 8 were for nice + money, I don't bet anything bigger than -125)
Happy Sunday fellas.Comment -
KC closers MONEY
Very nice write up. I'm from Texas watched CJ for awhile and he's a TOOL!!!
Arrogant F**K thinks he's the smartest guy on the planet just ask him.
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didnt watch the whole game, but he looked good early. didnt throw as hard as i thought for a big guy....Originally posted by Big Bear
maybe he increased as the game went on...Comment -
^
Pissed at myself, I was going to throw some on Archie, got sidetracked, forgot about it, and he wins at 2:1
All those that played the Snakes, that's how you do it, well played, you will go broke betting chalk, you will never go broke if you bet smart dogs.
I don't mean throw money blindly at dogs, but do a little homework, there is money to be made betting pick 'em type games where you get +130 or so.
Adding Blue Jays, will not count here, because first pitch went off.
Got me +105 there at the last second, so I hit Toronto also, sorry about the timing.
Ventura got bet up to +108 from +104 I see.
Damn, I'm locked in at 104Comment -
Nashy is eatin'Comment -
I agree 100% nash you cant win laying chalk like that which is why i stick to betting totals mainly 1st5 innings so i dont have to lay more than -125 most the time. I bet Ml's the 1st couple days this season went 6-7 laying mostly chalk and said to hell with this junk. I am thinking about randomly playing dogs when the pitchers are even. Ventura vs wilson today for example.Originally posted by stevenashComment -
Wow you have an azz record. Anyway who's the best MLB bettor here?Comment -
nice hits nasherComment -
It's not about the record, it's about the profit.Originally posted by Hollafront
I'm 10 and 6 now, but showing a 700 dollar profit.Comment -
Thanks.Originally posted by JJJComment -
Nashy we like your work!Comment -
Just got done breaking down these two future Cy Young Award winner and Hall of Famers Chris Heston and Eddie Butler, not to be confused with Charlton Heston and Eddie Bauer, anyway, this Eddie Bauer is a hamburger.
Chris Heston can actually pitch a little bit.
This is Butler's stats
2012 GJR Rk 7 1 0 13 12 67.7 59 13 55 1 60% .286 7.8 1.7 0.1 7.3 1.06 2.13 26.8 2.6 2013 ASH A 5 1 0 9 9 54.3 25 25 51 2 76% .172 4.1 4.1 0.3 8.4 0.92 1.66 2.8 0.3 2013 TUL AA 1 0 0 6 6 27.7 13 6 25 0 58% .188 4.2 2.0 0.0 8.1 0.69 0.65 8.3 0.9 2013 MOD A+ 3 4 0 13 13 67.7 58 21 67 7 49% .280 7.7 2.8 0.9 8.9 1.17 2.39 9.1 0.9 2014 TUL AA 6 9 0 18 18 108.0 104 32 63 10 47% .274 8.7 2.7 0.8 5.2 1.26 3.58 3.0 0.2 2014 MOD A+ 0 0 0 1 1 4.0 2 2 2 0 36% .143 4.5 4.5 0.0 4.5 1.00 6.75 -0.1 -0.0 2014 COL MLB 1 1 0 3 3 16.0 23 7 3 2 56% .328 12.9 3.9 1.1 1.7 1.88 6.75 -1.8 -0.2 2014 CSP AAA 0 1 0 1 1 5.3 8 3 4 0 58% .421 13.5 5.1 0.0 6.8 2.06 10.12 1.0 0.1 2015 COL MLB 0 0 0 1 1 5.7 4 4 5 1 50% .231 6.4 6.4 1.6 7.9 1.41 3.18 -1.6 -0.2 Comment -
Cole is a -109 favorite over Anibal Sanchez.
Total is 7
Game is in Pitt.
No DH
Cutch has found his groove thing.
Talk about a pair of razor sharp betting lines.
Like the under, but 4-3 is a push, like Cole, but can't fade Sanchez and the Tiger bats.
Like Pitt at home a little, Tigers lose a bat.
Josh Harrison(R) 3B
Gregory Polanco(L) RF
Andrew McCutchen(R) CF
Neil Walker(S) 2B
Starling Marte(R) LF
Pedro Alvarez(L) 1B
Francisco Cervelli(S) C
Jordy Mercer(R) SS
Gerrit Cole(R) P
Anthony Gose(L) CF
Ian Kinsler(R) 2B
Miguel Cabrera(R) 1B
J.D. Martinez(R) RF
Yoenis Cespedes(R) LF
Nick Castellanos(R) 3B
Alex Avila(L) C
Jose Iglesias(R) SS
Anibal Sanchez(R) PComment -
Cole up to -130. Like him, but way too expensive.Comment -
Barking Dog Play of the Afternoon
Quick recap, I'm 9 and 6 (60 percent) and +7.13*
I think I have us ourselves a juicy barking dog.
A. Harang and the (God Bless them) the Philadelphia Phillies over DeGrom and the Mets.
Why?
1) The price is more than right at +152
2) Aaron Harang's last start was stellar.
3) I like DeGrom, but no way he's -162 with the Mets lineup today.
Only one that scares me some is Wright, Murphy can be pesky, but still, I ike my chances at +152
Hate to use that 'V' word, but there is a ton of value with Harang in this spot.
4) I live in Mets/Yank/Red Sox territory, I see a shitload of Mets games, this is the type of game they always seem to lose, come home to Citi after a nice road win, start the season on a pretty good note, fans get all gaga, then they lay a big wet stink bomb. Seen them do it a 1000 times.
5) Harang is crafty, he can keep the Mets off balance all day.
6) Feeling here is Harang is up to the challenge this afternoon, I think he can keep the Mets to 3 or under.
Looking for Harang to have a 'bounce' off that gem he pitched last week.
Don't have to tail, it's the Phils, but I'm going for it off the aforementioned reasons.
3* at +152 for a real nice, I mean real nice return of 456.
I hit this, I'm set up for a good month.
Nasher is in it to win it.
303890140-1 4/13/15 11:06am $300.00 $456.00 Pending 4/13/15 1:10pm MLB Baseball 951 Philadelphia Phillies +152* <small style="padding: 0px; margin: 0px;">vs</small> New York Mets (A Harang - R must Start J Degrom - R must Start)
Ben Revere(L) LF
Odubel Herrera(L) CF
Chase Utley(L) 2B
Ryan Howard(L) 1B
Carlos Ruiz(R) C
Grady Sizemore(L) RF
Cody Asche(L) 3B
Freddy Galvis(S) SS
Aaron Harang(R) P
Curtis Granderson(L) RF
David Wright(R) 3B
Lucas Duda(L) 1B
Michael Cuddyer(R) LF
Daniel Murphy(L) 2B
Travis d'Arnaud(R) C
Juan Lagares(R) CF
Wilmer Flores(R) SS
Jacob deGrom(L) PComment -
Buck and a quarter at 5D, that's almost a 20 cent leap in 45 minutes.Originally posted by VascoComment -
Nash, I think the Yanks are a great play tonight...good value, IMO...Chen is 2-4 with a 5.44 ERA in nine career starts against the Yankees. He's especially struggled against the top of New York's order, with Brett Gardner going 5 for 14 with a homer and two doubles in their matchups, while Jacoby Ellsbury is 6 for 13.He'll be opposed by Michael Pineda, who has been excellent against the Orioles in his career, posting a 1.78 ERA and striking out 25 over 25 1-3 innings in four starts....As usual, posting a real money ticket wager!..
ONLINE
04/13/2015
12:17 PMSTRAIGHT BET 04/13/2015 @ 07:05 PM MLB [967] NY YANKEES +105
( M PINEDA -R / W CHEN -L )384.19 403.40
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Fatass Harang cant pick up the come backer fast enough to preserve the tie game.Comment -
Turned him around, after looking at the third replay I can give him a pass on that one.Originally posted by jameski999
Wait, Mets bullpen will bury them.
Give him credit, he pitched that crafty game so far I thought he would.
1-0, 3 innings left yetComment -
Getting into that Mets pen. Someone needs to come up with a big hit, Phils have pitched a really good game so farComment -
I have a question Nash. I did Cardinals -1.5 with wainwright at home against a team he dominates, while Brew crew are struggling going against a team that hits garza. Home opener, the excitement in St Louis I would think Cards would dominate Brewers, if they lose what angle did I miss?Comment -
Tennis Nash can better than I but you almost never take a home team on the RL. The whole reason the RL was created was for a way for books to take more sucker money.
If you're going to take a rl stick to a road team in the top 1/3 MLB runs/game with a decent spComment -
Brew Crew hits Wainwright well enough, been hitting poorly due for a reversion to mean. Garza's last outing @ Busch was solid and he's looking for a rebound performance. Division game and odds of back to back shutouts are low.Originally posted by tennis005Comment
