Nash 2015 MLB Thread

[stevenash]

Any thoughts on the Rangers game?
I saw the Jays total dropped from 8.5 to 8.
I took the over 8.

GL

Over or pass in that one.
I got nothing so far.
I'm on a three game cooler, I can't find shit to play today or tonight so far, I don't want to force a play......
Angel game over 8 looks like a play

I do like the over of the Warrior game though, but wrong sport.

[Jayvegas420]

Over or pass in that one.
I got nothing so far.
I'm on a three game cooler, I can't find shit to play today or tonight so far, I don't want to force a play......
Angel game over 8 looks like a play

I do like the over of the Warrior game though, but wrong sport.

Yeah, besides the wizards, the over in the GS game is my 2nd best bet of the day. I had the Jays over & the Tigers game over as well.

Big day suggests taking the over In All Twins games so I am gonna sprinkle a little on your rangers over pick.

[iHateBetting12]

Over or pass in that one.
I got nothing so far.
I'm on a three game cooler, I can't find shit to play today or tonight so far, I don't want to force a play......
Angel game over 8 looks like a play

I do like the over of the Warrior game though, but wrong sport.

Nash, how do you feel about coming back with TB tonight? Was going to write up a quick analysis of why I liked them, but figured it wouldnt do much for a guy who already knows the stats and teams better than I could talk 'em up lol.

[stevenash]

^
Odorizzi?
He's my fantasy sleeper, I thought about using TB, but I don't know how Tanaka really is.
I don't know which Tanaka shows up tonight.

I hope the crappy one, Odorizzi is my secret weapon in my fantasy league.

[jameski999]

Cold bats at Minute Maid Park

[iHateBetting12]

Ended up taking them we'll see how it turns out. Liked Odorizzi stats going I to the game. Was hoping Tanaka wouldn't be on his A game tonight. Can be very Dr. Jekyll/Mr. Hyde.

[stevenash]

^
Tanaka is a crap shoot, when he's on, he's unhittable.

[iHateBetting12]

Flood gates opened as soon as I opened my mouth.

[stevenash]

Outside of that juicy Brave hit the other night , that pretty much saved my week, I've been ice cold myself.
It happens, I always straighten it out though.

[iHateBetting12]

Basketball is where my gambling game is strong. Baseball, not so much. Trying to get the hang of it.

King Felix not giving my Rangers bet a shot tonight either. He is mowing them down.

[Da Manster!]

I hear ya Nash...I've been red hot as well until the last couple of games...Dem's da' breaks...just like today's $590 loss for me on the over 8.5 Red Sox/O's game...17 runners LOB!!...17!!.. between the two teams!...O's had bases loaded several times and couldn't capitalize!.....yes, it pisses me off when I make a decent wager and it doesn't hit when the percentages are in my favor.

[iHateBetting12]

I hear ya Nash...I've been red hot as well until the last couple of games...Dem's da' breaks...just like today's $590 loss for me on the over 8.5 Red Sox/O's game...17 runners LOB!!...17!!.. between the two teams!...O's had bases loaded several times and couldn't capitalize!.....yes, it pisses me off when I make a decent wager and it doesn't hit when the percentages are in my favor.

Lost on same play and had about the same on it...brutal.

[Da Manster!]

Live to fight another day, bro!...

[stevenash]

Cashner +117 over Lester

Winds blowing in, balls staying in Wrigley.
Plus I'm not sold on Cubs lineup.

Lester and Cashner match up well, SD with the better lineup.
Pick game where I'm getting +117, that 's what I look for, pick 'em game where I think the dog can win.
SD +117 3*
(i'm on a three game losing streak, tail at own risk)

Also, Kohler has always given Mets fits, if that holds true to form and can match Harvey, who is on an innings limit, Miami can steal a game here at +165, that's a lean, I bet it for 1*, but not what I call an offical play, just saying here Harvey is not a mortal lock this afternoon, not even close.
All's it takes is a mistake to Stanton, and Mets afternoon is doomed.

[TwoWays]

Steven good win on Padres. Easy call

[iHateBetting12]

Nash what's your thoughts on the night game? Im leaning heavily towards in the O7 in that one. Both teams hitting decently off opposing pitcher. Wainwright not someone I like to fade, but also thinking Cincy +$ to avoid the sweep.

[stevenash]

Nash what's your thoughts on the night game? Im leaning heavily towards in the O7 in that one. Both teams hitting decently off opposing pitcher. Wainwright not someone I like to fade, but also thinking Cincy +$ to avoid the sweep.

Over looks juicy.
Reds middle of the order should produce some runs, Cards should hammer Leake, they have in the past.

Take the over.

[iHateBetting12]

Over looks juicy.
Reds middle of the order should produce some runs, Cards should hammer Leake, they have in the past.

Take the over.

Decided on the O7 and O3.5 FF. Thanks for your input, much appreciated.

[Trusty *A*]

Nice pick on the padres. Good to see you back on the winners board.

[stevenash]

Nice pick on the padres. Good to see you back on the winners board.

Thank you sir, it's like anything in life, you win some, you lose some.
Just don't bet chalk and you'll always be in the game (baseball wagering)
If you bet smart dogs, you can endure 3 and 4 game losing streaks easily

[Big Bear]

Thank you sir, it's like anything in life, you win some, you lose some.
Just don't bet chalk and you'll always be in the game (baseball wagering)
If you bet smart dogs, you can endure 3 and 4 game losing streaks easily

Nash... interesting that you say that


if you bet strictly dogs say +100 to +180.....


over the course of the season what percentage what i need to win to turn a profit???

maybe 40%? or 45%?

just wondering

[stevenash]

Nash... interesting that you say that


if you bet strictly dogs say +100 to +180.....



over the course of the season what percentage what i need to win to turn a profit???

maybe 40%? or 45%?

just wondering

In 2012, my first full year handicapping here, Balty was covering at +180 at an alarming rate.
I made major bank that year and I was like 54 percent.

2013 I made a tiny profit, and I was like 47 percent or so, maybe 48 percent.

Last year I broke even, I forgot the percentage.

Well, do the math.
If you bet 5 games at +150, if you hit two, you collect 300 (150 2x) andf if you lose the other 3 you lose 300 (3x 100) if your units are 100 each. Ergo, you can go 40 percent and break dead to rights even)

Now, at +140, if you bet 20 games at +140, and win 9 and lose 11, you would collect 140 nine times for 1260, pay out 100 11 times for 1100, so, you could go 45 percent across 20 games, and turn a profit of 160.

Conversely, if you bet two -150 chalks, and lose, you are down 300, and would have to win your next 3 in a row just to get even.

Only man I know alive that can turn a profit betting chalk in baseball is "Dr. Chalk" Benjamin Lee Eckstein.

[Big Bear]

thanks for the response Nash.

I am always looking at new strategies. I think I may try doing dogs only for awhile and see what happens.

[TwoWays]

thanks for the response Nash.

I am always looking at new strategies. I think I may try doing dogs only for awhile and see what happens.

Bear that is nasty. It is illegal in some states to do that.

[Da Manster!]

Bear that is nasty. It is illegal in some states to do that.

this...and don't forget the peanut butter!...

[Big Bear]

Bear that is nasty. It is illegal in some states to do that.

your mind is always in the gutter lol

[Jayvegas420]

Nash is sharp.

What do we have for today?

[Vasco]

I'm thinking ride the Padres again today at +120. They have the righty power bats to get to De la Rosa.

[TheLock]

I love MLB threads. Just saw this one, Nash.

How are you doing so far in MLB. I searched through 5 or 6 pages of this thread but I don't see any running record of units +/-.


I'm having a rough April. I'm down about 12 units.

[stevenash]

Like +2* give or take a fraction.
Little better than even, not much.
Started off hot, went on a mini cooler twice.

I'm like 12 and 12 or there abouts, plus money because I bet dogs.

OK, starting to get a real feel for this season, I'm feeling a monster month of May coming on.

[Da Manster!]

three solid plays for me today fellas...all for one buck a piece!

Detroit/NY over 9 (-120)
Padres/Rockies over 9.5(-120)
Reds (+105) against Milwaukee

[stevenash]

Check out some of these winds and wind direction tonight

Chicago Cubs at Pittsburgh Pirates – 7:05 PM EDT - PNC Park Air Density Index: 62
Wind: WSW 10 mph		Time:	4 pm	5 pm	6 pm	7 pm	8 pm	9 pm	10 pm	11 pm	12 am
Temp:	68°	69°	67°	65°	63°	59°	56°	55°	54°
Humidity:	57%	52%	52%	52%	58%	61%	65%	68%	67%
Feels like:	68°	69°	67°	65°	63°	57°	54°	52°	51°
Condition:	Mostly Cloudy	T-Storms	Isolated T-Storms	Rain / Thunder	Cloudy	Showers	Showers	Showers	Showers
Precip%:	5%	70%	30%	70%	20%	35%	35%	55%	40%
Wind:	SW 16 mph	WSW 15 mph	WSW 12 mph	WSW 10 mph	WSW 10 mph	W 10 mph	W 10 mph	WSW 10 mph	W 9 mph
New York Yankees at Detroit Tigers – 7:08 PM EDT - Comerica Park Air Density Index: 65
Wind: W 21 mph		Time:	4 pm	5 pm	6 pm	7 pm	8 pm	9 pm	10 pm	11 pm	12 am
Temp:	61°	59°	57°	53°	52°	50°	48°	47°	46°
Humidity:	63%	62%	57%	56%	54%	58%	63%	67%	69%
Feels like:	61°	59°	57°	53°	52°	44°	43°	42°	41°
Condition:	Cloudy / Wind	Cloudy / Wind	Cloudy / Wind	Cloudy / Wind	Cloudy / Wind	Mostly Cloudy	Mostly Cloudy	Cloudy	Cloudy
Precip%:	0%	0%	0%	25%	25%	0%	0%	0%	10%
Wind:	SW 23 mph	WSW 22 mph	WSW 22 mph	W 21 mph	W 20 mph	WSW 17 mph	WSW 13 mph	WSW 12 mph	WSW 11 mph
Cincinnati Reds at Milwaukee Brewers – 6:20 PM CDT - Miller Park Air Density Index: 62 <center> (Note: retractable roof may neutralize some weather conditions.) </center>
Wind: W 18 mph		Time:	3 pm	4 pm	5 pm	6 pm	7 pm	8 pm	9 pm	10 pm	11 pm
Temp:	46°	49°	48°	49°	48°	46°	45°	45°	44°
Humidity:	60%	50%	50%	46%	46%	47%	47%	49%	49%
Feels like:	38°	42°	40°	42°	42°	39°	39°	38°	38°
Condition:	Showers / Wind	Cloudy / Wind	Cloudy / Wind	Cloudy	Mostly Cloudy	Mostly Cloudy	Mostly Cloudy	Mostly Cloudy	Partly Cloudy
Precip%:	45%	5%	15%	5%	0%	0%	0%	0%	0%
Wind:	WNW 21 mph	W 20 mph	W 20 mph	W 18 mph	W 16 mph	W 15 mph	W 13 mph	W 13 mph	W 11 mph
Cleveland Indians at Chicago White Sox – 8:10 PM EDT - U.S. Cellular Field Air Density Index: 68
Wind: W 16 mph		Time:	5 pm	6 pm	7 pm	8 pm	9 pm	10 pm	11 pm	12 am	1 am
Temp:	53°	53°	53°	51°	50°	50°	48°	48°	47°
Humidity:	40%	41%	39%	43%	45%	47%	49%	51%	53%
Feels like:	53°	53°	53°	46°	45°	45°	44°	43°	42°
Condition:	Cloudy	Cloudy	Cloudy	Mostly Cloudy	Partly Cloudy	Partly Cloudy	Partly Cloudy	Partly Cloudy	Mostly Clear
Precip%:	10%	0%	0%	0%	0%	0%	0%	0%	0%
Wind:	W 17 mph	W 18 mph	W 16 mph	W 16 mph	W 14 mph	W 11 mph	WSW 10 mph	SW 10 mph	SW 11 mph
Minnesota Twins at Kansas City Royals – 7:10 PM CDT - Kauffman Stadium Air Density Index: 67
Wind: WNW 12 mph		Time:	4 pm	5 pm	6 pm	7 pm	8 pm	9 pm	10 pm	11 pm	12 am
Temp:	59°	59°	59°	58°	55°	52°	51°	50°	48°
Humidity:	25%	23%	22%	24%	33%	39%	43%	45%	47%
Feels like:	59°	59°	59°	58°	53°	51°	49°	47°	46°
Condition:	Mostly Sunny	Sunny	Sunny	Sunny	Clear	Clear	Clear	Clear	Clear
Precip%:	0%	0%	0%	0%	0%	0%	0%	0%	0%
Wind:	WNW 19 mph	WNW 17 mph	WNW 16 mph	WNW 12 mph	W 7 mph	WSW 6 mph	WSW 6 mph	WSW 6 mph	WSW 7 mph
San Diego Padres at Colorado Rockies – 6:40 PM MDT - Coors Field Air Density Index: 50
Wind: N 7 mph		Time:	3 pm	4 pm	5 pm	6 pm	7 pm	8 pm	9 pm	10 pm	11 pm
Temp:	55°	57°	56°	56°	53°	50°	47°	45°	43°
Humidity:	34%	32%	32%	33%	38%	45%	54%	55%	57%
Feels like:	55°	57°	56°	56°	51°	48°	44°	43°	40°
Condition:	Partly Cloudy	Partly Cloudy	Partly Cloudy	Partly Cloudy	Sunny	Clear	Clear	Clear	Clear
Precip%:	10%	0%	5%	0%	0%	0%	0%	0%	0%
Wind:	NNE 6 mph	NNE 6 mph	NNE 7 mph	N 7 mph	NNE 6 mph	NNE 6 mph	NE 6 mph	ENE 5 mph	SSW 6 mph
Oakland Athletics at Los Angeles Angels – 7:05 PM PDT - Angel Stadium Air Density Index: 67
Wind: SW 9 mph		Time:	4 pm	5 pm	6 pm	7 pm	8 pm	9 pm	10 pm	11 pm	12 am
Temp:	70°	69°	67°	64°	61°	59°	59°	58°	58°
Humidity:	48%	49%	55%	61%	70%	74%	77%	79%	80%
Feels like:	70°	69°	67°	63°	60°	59°	59°	58°	58°
Condition:	Mostly Sunny	Partly Cloudy	Sunny	Sunny	Clear	Clear	Partly Cloudy	Partly Cloudy	Partly Cloudy
Precip%:	0%	0%	0%	0%	5%	5%	5%	5%	5%
Wind:	SSW 8 mph	SW 8 mph	SW 10 mph	SW 9 mph	SW 7 mph	SW 5 mph	SW 4 mph	SW 3 mph	SW 3 mph

[mlb]

Nasher - I see you played some poker when you were making yourself a couch potato all weekend watching NBA? ... 9th place... not bad

[stevenash]

^
Thanks.
I'm OK, weekend warrior.
I'll never make anyone forget Doyle Brunson, but I have a little bit of a game.

[stevenash]

Indians / White Sox over 9

1) Wind blowing out to the power alley at 10 to 20 mph.
2) Danks is a cheeseburger.
3) Bauer is wild, will put unecessary baserunners on base.
4) Both teams can rake, LaRoache, Jose Abreu, Kipnis, Santana.....

Feeling here this is the best total of the night.