Lets talk Baseball betting strategy for a moment

YorkHunt · 02-12-15, 03:54 PM

....

daneblazer · 02-12-15, 04:04 PM

Astros/Rockies World Series, Bear

MoMoneyMoVaughn · 02-12-15, 04:12 PM

Books are pretty quick to pick up on who is for real and who is not. My guess would be, without looking at any data, that the Orioles are an anomaly that may be partially a result of the AL east being the division that it is.

AL West also incredibly strong, so if they are as good as you think they are, this trend may hold and Astros could be incredibly profitable.

Personally, I have an incredibly tough time winning 80 games when they have to play 76 games against 4 good teams. I figure Texas will rebound. Very few easy wins in the American league.

pimike · 02-12-15, 04:22 PM

That would only work if you had 1 account assigned to just that action. However teams go on a long 7+ game losing streak every year. Would you be willing to reup and keep playing them faithfully after your start up money is gone??

Just food for thought.

krk1030 · 02-12-15, 04:23 PM

astros have 0% chance to win 80 games.

BIGDAY · 02-12-15, 04:38 PM

Pound the winners.

broadway6 · 02-12-15, 04:42 PM

Flip a new nickel

Smoke · 02-12-15, 04:49 PM

Flip a burger

Bustedu · 02-12-15, 05:06 PM

Originally posted by Raonic

cubs will go to world series this year but not sure if they will win it...
Kris bryant will take the home run crown

Yea right. With 4 rookies in the lineup they are going nowhere.

SteveKerrsJunk · 02-12-15, 05:09 PM

The Astros could be undervalued a lot, but do you really want to waste your money betting on the astros all year? Maybe in some 4 game chases. But I'd rather find 4 game series that look great and try to win 1 unit. Look for stuff like Padres at Nats 4 game series. Astros at Tigers 4 game series get the unit and get out. The opportunities in baseball are plentiful with some patience and diligence.

Big Bear · 02-12-15, 05:23 PM

Originally posted by Raonic

cubs will go to world series this year but not sure if they will win it...
Kris bryant will take the home run crown

you think that will be offered as a prop bet?

i would take it at +500

stevenash · 02-12-15, 05:42 PM

Originally posted by Raonic

cubs will go to world series this year but not sure if they will win it...
Kris bryant will take the home run crown

So, a 23 year old kid, who has never has a single at bat in the big show, who is not even on the Cubs depth chart at third base is goiing to win the home run crown?
Forget Stanton for a minute, Bryant will not even outhomer his teammate Rizzo.

The earliest he gets called up in June 1, the Cubs are in no rush to call Bryant up.
He starts the year in AAA.

Only way the Cubs get to the World Series this year is if they buy tickets at the box office.
Rotation is not deep, line up has too many holes, like Baez and Coghlan just to name two.

stevenash · 02-12-15, 05:45 PM

Originally posted by Big Bear

you think that will be offered as a prop bet?

i would take it at +500

I'll put up 1000 to your 20 dollars Bryant does not win the homerun crown.

Do you do any reading at all?

People !
Get off of Bryant's jock, he's not going north with the big squad.
Epstein "Bryants development is independent on who makes the roster"

Code for, we are not rushing him up, he's going to start the year in the minors.

stevenash · 02-12-15, 05:50 PM

Originally posted by YorkHunt

Bear?
Did you take stupid pills today?
You don't blindly wager on a team daily, baseball is a situational game.

stevenash · 02-12-15, 05:51 PM

Originally posted by Big Bear

how many units do you think you would be up or down if u bet on the Astros every game in 2015?

+11,450,000,000.00

SteveKerrsJunk · 02-12-15, 06:14 PM

If you grew up or are familiar with Chicago you know to never bet the Cubs to win a WS. Total wins over sure, WS, you have a better chance of hitting the current powerball jackpot or dating (insert your favorite hottie). Cubs have some decent starting pitching, an average bullpen, and a bunch of mostly unproven youngsters. Rizzo seems legit, Solar was great in limited EXP points. But even Castro? And then it's all unproven. If the universes align the Cubs could make the playoffs and possibly advance a round, but then that pressure creeps in and the Cubs inevitably crumble. The Cardinals own the Cubs, Pirates should be tough, Brewers are a wildcard. Cubs are all hype until proven otherwise.

Big Bear · 02-12-15, 06:17 PM

Originally posted by stevenash

+11,450,000,000.00

not possible betting 1 unit per game

SteveKerrsJunk · 02-12-15, 06:20 PM

Bear do you use any banned substances from your home country?

Big Bear · 02-12-15, 06:20 PM

Steve Kerr there will come a day when the Cubs win a World Series.

on a side note i was reading a fantasy ranking system today that had Arrieta ranked as a top 10 pitcher and Jon Lester was top 20 but not top 10.

Also interesting that Astros SP Collin McHugh was ranked in top 20.

SteveKerrsJunk · 02-12-15, 06:23 PM

Originally posted by Big Bear

Steve Kerr there will come a day when the Cubs win a World Series.

on a side note i was reading a fantasy ranking system today that had Arrieta ranked as a top 10 pitcher and Jon Lester was top 20 but not top 10.

Also interesting that Astros SP Collin McHugh was ranked in top 20.

I actually didn't realize McHugh was a Cub, he has potential. Cubs rotation isn't bad, but the Cubs led the league in runs back in 07 i believe, then play some bs team like the Dbacks and score like 5 runs in a sweep. That's the Cubs, they are so much hype because people want them to win so bad but it's all pipe dreams.

Big Bear · 02-12-15, 06:26 PM

McHugh not a Cub obviously.

i just found it interesting that roto world had him ranked in the top 20

Big Bear · 02-12-15, 06:26 PM

McGugh is an Astro

Big Bear · 02-12-15, 06:28 PM

if the Cubs are in the penant race the atmosphere at Wrigley is going to be amazing.

SteveKerrsJunk · 02-12-15, 06:50 PM

Yeah when the Cubs are good it definitely has the north side of Chicago buzzing a bit more for sure. But the Cubs are over-inflated.

Big Bear · 02-12-15, 08:00 PM

Quick question for those of you who bet MLB totals and have a good memory...

early in the season would you say games are normally high scoring or low scoring?

Big Bear · 02-12-15, 08:04 PM

Can somebody tell me what the odds for the Mariners and Cubs to win the World Series are at the Las Vegas Wynn?

jjgold · 02-12-15, 08:12 PM

I think you're better off taking a team total instead of betting them every day

Probably requires less capital

INVEGA MAN · 02-12-15, 08:18 PM

Watch out for Miami

2daBank · 02-12-15, 08:30 PM

bet stros every day, check.

bet a kid ya never seen swing a bat at 5 to 1 to win hr title, check. (should we try and find triple crown odds around 10 to 1? maybe hold out for +1200?)

seems easy, cant wait to cash out.. thanx bear..

stevenash · 02-12-15, 08:32 PM

Originally posted by Raonic

cubs will go to world series this year but not sure if they will win it...
Kris bryant will take the home run crown

He’s not a perfect prospect; there’s no such thing as a perfect prospect. Every prospect has a flaw, and Bryant’s is enough to raise the eyebrows. Think of it this way: if Bryantwere to disappoint, why might that be? It seems we could already have a sign.

In a way we’ve already been through this with George Springer. Not that the Springer story is complete, and not that Springer is an identical sort of hitter to Bryant, but the issue’s the same. When people talk about Bryant, they generally do acknowledge the strikeouts. The strikeouts, quite clearly, haven’t prevented Bryant from putting up minor-league numbers that break leaderboard pages. What’s so interesting is what’s right underneath the strikeouts. You probably don’t know just how often Kris Bryant has swung at a pitch and missed.

Or, contact rate, if you flip it around. Contact rate tends to hover in the high-70s. That’s how it is in the majors. That’s how it is in Triple-A. That’s how it is in Double-A. You expect power hitters, generally, to swing and miss a little more often than usual, but Bryant last year took things toward an extreme.

In Double-A, Bryant batted just shy of 300 times. He posted a contact rate a hair under 69%, according to Minor League Central. Among players for whom we have data, this was the sixth-lowest contact rate at the level. Bryant, of course, obliterated the baseball when he hit it, and he managed to draw his walks, but his contact rate was lower than, say, Rymer Liriano‘s. Joey Gallo showed up at 58%, and that blows Bryant out of the water, but if we get that Gallo is a boom-or-bust unknown, Bryant isn’t that different. Gallo would be sort of a caricature of the profile.

Anyway, forget Double-A. In Triple-A, Bryant also batted just shy of 300 times. He posted a contact rate a hair under 65%, according to the same site. Among players for whom we have data, this was the fourth-lowest contact rate at the level. Somewhat incredibly, fewer than two percentage points separated Bryant andJavier Baez. Fewer than two percentage points separated Bryant and Brett Jackson. Bryant made contact less often than Domingo Santana; Bryant made contact less often than Carlos Peguero. Bryant, understand, has a more refined approach. He’s not a hacker, like Peguero is. But the misses are there when he swings. And not just a little more than average — a lot more than average. In between doubles and dingers, Bryant has been a swing-and-miss machine.

daneblazer · 02-12-15, 08:32 PM

Want a dark horse for the hr title, Evan Gattis

stevenash · 02-12-15, 08:38 PM

^
Joey Bats if healthy could hit 50.
That's my pick.

Emancipator · 02-12-15, 09:01 PM

Originally posted by Big Bear

Quick question for those of you who bet MLB totals and have a good memory...

early in the season would you say games are normally high scoring or low scoring?

If its not too cold out, games are usually high scoring into the first week of May. After that pick your spots with unders at pitchers start to dial in, and managers find out who the duds are.

stevenash · 02-12-15, 09:06 PM

Originally posted by Emancipator

If its not too cold out, games are usually high scoring into the first week of May. After that pick your spots with unders at pitchers start to dial in, and managers find out who the duds are.

Yeah, unless you are a proven work horse, and then some, starters go between five and six innings their first two starts.