Lets talk Baseball betting strategy for a moment

[mlb]

^
Joey Bats if healthy could hit 50.
That's my pick.

That would be one of mine as well.

I actually like this toronto team this year. Obviously not sold on the staff of whether they can be dominant when they need to be, but Stroman I think is going to be a stud.

[Ra77er]

Call me crazy but I think Chris Davis will hit 47-50 Hr's this year.

[stevenash]

^
28

[stevenash]

Call me crazy but I think Chris Davis will hit 47-50 Hr's this year.

Pecota says 30

http://www.fangraphs.com/statss.aspx?playerid=9272&position=1B

[texhooper]

Only way the Cubs get to the World Series this year is if they buy tickets at the box office.

you think there's any chance that they would buy them online?

[Ra77er]

I believe that's steamer projections and not Pecota steve. I tend to be a little more optimistic than some of the projection systems but it's nice to see they believe in a bit of an uptick in his performance this year as compared to last.

[TheLock]

Watch out for Miami

Got them 30/1 to win NLCS a couple of months ago.

[Smoke]

Bet all dogs

[Big Bear]

Got them 30/1 to win NLCS a couple of months ago.

has Dan Haren made up his mind if he is playing or not?

[Big Bear]

Bet all dogs

smokie i am really trying to make adjustments this year and i was thinking about even trying out a new strategy where i go one whole month betting just 1 game per day and only betting underdogs during that month....

however i am not sure if April is the best month to do that...

do you recall from previous years if favorites usually start out strong?

If my memory serves me correctly the trend i have notice is that

April - Favorites win at a high rate .. most teams starting rotations are in tact and most teams are healthy
May- Who let the dogs out???? dogs begin to bark
June- somewhat more balanced... you have certain pitchers who get off to a hot start and seem to win every start they make before beggining to tire out a bit..
July/August- This is where you see many of the injuries start to take effect... teams are starting to fall out of contention and calling up several minor league prospects.. dogs start hitting a much higher rate and Juice on the favorites seems to sky rocket.
September- all hell breaks loose

[jjgold]

Most people are broke now and most people do not bet baseball

Any sport that you bet daily you have no shot

[Big Bear]

Most people are broke now and most people do not bet baseball

Any sport that you bet daily you have no shot

Many people do win at baseball but like others have said it requires patience and homework.

I think the most important thing is to have the mindset that this is a marathon and not a sprint.

Money management is important more so in baseball than in football b/c there are so many games and the season last from
April to November and if you are not patient you will burn out before the season is over. ( Yes this has happened to me a bunch)

but mainly b/c in the past i have had very poor money management and i have either bet beyond my means or i have tried to do too many parlays instead of just chipping away and looking at the broader picture.

[Ra77er]

Some pitchers start out slow along with offenses so betting in April can be hazardous to your bankroll. I like homedogs in April mainly just psychologically, I have no significant sample size to prove if it's profitable long term. I prefer to get serious in mid-late may with baseball but come opening day I'm sure I'll be firing away like the degen I am.

[OMGRandyJackson]

^
Joey Bats if healthy could hit 50.
That's my pick.

ABSOLUTELY.

With Edwin and now Donaldson, Joey hitting 50, could very well happen.

Biggest stresser is healthy though.

[OMGRandyJackson]

I would love to know if that Baltimore stat is correct...

I almost might go through that tomorrow and see what I can find. But I feel like Baltimore would have gotten a bit more respect that would not make that true...

[SteveKerrsJunk]

White Sox and Blue Jays ftw.

[jturn49]

I wouldn't bet a team to win daily but I thought before about just picking one team (not my team of corse) and betting for or against them every game. Studying them and trying to get a good read on them rather than trying to look at 15 games a night. Any one ever done something like that?

[mitch51]

Most people are broke now and most people do not bet baseball

Any sport that you bet daily you have no shot

WTF? Betting baseball is like having your own ATM. It's the other sports that hammer me.

[eidolon]

+11,450,000,000.00

not possible betting 1 unit per game

[mitch51]

smokie i am really trying to make adjustments this year and i was thinking about even trying out a new strategy where i go one whole month betting just 1 game per day and only betting underdogs during that month....

however i am not sure if April is the best month to do that...

do you recall from previous years if favorites usually start out strong?

If my memory serves me correctly the trend i have notice is that

April - Favorites win at a high rate .. most teams starting rotations are in tact and most teams are healthy
May- Who let the dogs out???? dogs begin to bark
June- somewhat more balanced... you have certain pitchers who get off to a hot start and seem to win every start they make before beggining to tire out a bit..
July/August- This is where you see many of the injuries start to take effect... teams are starting to fall out of contention and calling up several minor league prospects.. dogs start hitting a much higher rate and Juice on the favorites seems to sky rocket.
September- all hell breaks loose

This is just plain wrong. During April and May, you should not bet one favorite. NONE. We have done this for the last three years. You can clean up on dogs in April and March.

[Big Bear]

I would love to know if that Baltimore stat is correct...

I almost might go through that tomorrow and see what I can find. But I feel like Baltimore would have gotten a bit more respect that would not make that true...

what did u find out?

[Conqueror]

Strategies:
1) Back hot rookie pitchers
2) Ride hot streaks
3) Make contrarian plays on o/u

[crackerjack]

astros have 0% chance to win 80 games.

This is what I was thinking. They have improved but they are still the Astros. If they are underdogs in all the games though you don't need them to win 80 to still be profitable with the strategy the OP is suggesting.

[crackerjack]

Quick question for those of you who bet MLB totals and have a good memory...

early in the season would you say games are normally high scoring or low scoring?

I have April and May of last year in a spreadsheet. I'll let you know...

[crackerjack]

Many people do win at baseball but like others have said it requires patience and homework.

I think the most important thing is to have the mindset that this is a marathon and not a sprint.

Money management is important more so in baseball than in football b/c there are so many games and the season last from
April to November and if you are not patient you will burn out before the season is over. ( Yes this has happened to me a bunch)

but mainly b/c in the past i have had very poor money management and i have either bet beyond my means or i have tried to do too many parlays instead of just chipping away and looking at the broader picture.

I want to thumb this post a thousand times. Baseball is such a great sport to bet on but with no money management, you could go bust easily and be out of the game by July.

[crackerjack]

Last April there were 171 games that went under and 151 games that went over. Almost an exact 50/50 split in May.

[mitch51]

Last April there were 171 games that went under and 151 games that went over. Almost an exact 50/50 split in May.

If it was around 50-50 with totals and you bet the dog and never took the dreaded juice, you might make some money. Even not hitting 50%, you could show a profit at the end of the year.

[Big Bear]

Last April there were 171 games that went under and 151 games that went over. Almost an exact 50/50 split in May.

interesting

[Ebe]

Bet favorites when they will win and cash your ticket