Best NFL Handicapper

**Slanina** · 10-11-14, 02:25 PM

Originally posted by jmathes

Good luck this weekend guys! He picked buffalo twice so far this year and is 3-0 on his best bets and they have all been huge blowouts.

DAVIDFROHARDT LANE1 PIT MIA BUF BAL ARI
DAVIDFROHARDT LANE2 NYJ TEN MIN CAR BUF

DAVIDFROHARDT LANE1 19 6 0 19

DAVIDFROHARDT LANE2 15 10 0 15

I was on 3 of the plays already. Miami, Buffalo and Baltimore. Feel even more confident he has the same 3.

**Mako-SBR** · 10-11-14, 02:35 PM

Originally posted by jt315

Unfortunately lines on DFL 1 not available unless you pay ridiculous juice.

DAVIDFROHARDT LANE1 PIT MIA BUF BAL ARI
+2/+3.5/+3 /-3 / -3 (contest lines)

Which is something the people in this thread don't understand the importance of.

Anyone tailing picks today from WEDNESDAY LINES will wind up on the losing side often enough that the LVH's winner having say a 67% rate ATS falls to 50%, or lower, for the "late" line bettor.

Crazy.

**jt315** · 10-11-14, 02:41 PM

Originally posted by Mako-SBR

Which is something the people in this thread don't understand the importance of.

Anyone tailing picks today from WEDNESDAY LINES will wind up on the losing side often enough that the LVH's winner having say a 67% rate ATS falls to 50%, or lower, for the "late" line bettor.

Crazy.

And this week is screaming that loud and clear !!

**jmathes** · 10-11-14, 03:08 PM

Originally posted by Mako-SBR

Which is something the people in this thread don't understand the importance of.

Anyone tailing picks today from WEDNESDAY LINES will wind up on the losing side often enough that the LVH's winner having say a 67% rate ATS falls to 50%, or lower, for the "late" line bettor.

Crazy.

Thats a very false statement and thats why this thread has gone to shit. The SuperContest Wednesday line vs the closing line movement has only affected the spread on 1 game so far this year. You saying it changes the success rate 17% or more is an idiotic statement and clearly have no clue what you're talking about.

**Mako-SBR** · 10-11-14, 03:37 PM

Originally posted by jmathes

Thats a very false statement and thats why this thread has gone to shit. The SuperContest Wednesday line vs the closing line movement has only affected the spread on 1 game so far this year. You saying it changes the success rate 17% or more is an idiotic statement and clearly have no clue what you're talking about.

Wrong. Dead wrong, which is why this thread is one of the saddest (worst) on SBR.

The moving line, i.e., anyone getting in on Saturday evening or later, versus the Supercontest posted line has already affected four of the picks made by the individual you're tailing, and he hasn't even had his first tie yet (typically the Supercontest winner has between 4-7 ties, most of which you will be losing again because of the negative spread movement).

You can defend it all you like, you can howl at the moon that "regression to the mean is false", the "moving line makes no difference", etc, but reasons like this are the exact, to the tee, reason why you've been a failed handicapper to the point where you desperately have to tail lines that are 4+ days old by the time you get them.

Sad.

**mitch51** · 10-11-14, 04:53 PM

Originally posted by Mako-SBR

Wrong. Dead wrong, which is why this thread is one of the saddest (worst) on SBR.

The moving line, i.e., anyone getting in on Saturday evening or later, versus the Supercontest posted line has already affected four of the picks made by the individual you're tailing, and he hasn't even had his first tie yet (typically the Supercontest winner has between 4-7 ties, most of which you will be losing again because of the negative spread movement).

You can defend it all you like, you can howl at the moon that "regression to the mean is false", the "moving line makes no difference", etc, but reasons like this are the exact, to the tee, reason why you've been a failed handicapper to the point where you desperately have to tail lines that are 4+ days old by the time you get them.

Sad.

I guess it's sad. But since taking his stale, 4+ day lines I have made a ton of money tailing this guy's picks. I bet them 2x and wish I could bet them for more. The only games that have been different for me regarding line changes? I pushed one game that he lost and lost one game that he won. I'm not exactly getting killed, as you put it. So, we are up $1,700 at this point in the season.

That being said, this thread by jmathes has been one of the more valuable threads in SBR. But like he says, you have to dig through a big pile of shit to dig anything out because of comments like yours.

Sad.

**lingumloda** · 10-11-14, 05:30 PM

Mitch do you play both lane 1 and 2 ? I value your opinion and insight, thanks !

**LokcItUp** · 10-11-14, 05:41 PM

Originally posted by Mako-SBR

Which is something the people in this thread don't understand the importance of.

Anyone tailing picks today from WEDNESDAY LINES will wind up on the losing side often enough that the LVH's winner having say a 67% rate ATS falls to 50%, or lower, for the "late" line bettor.

Crazy.

Historically, the point spread matters in the NFL only about 15% to 18% of the time. That is, between 82% and 85% of the time the team that wins also covers the pointspread. If one was to follow his top 5 plays and let's say was able to get the same number 3x and on the other two plays was off by .5-1.5 points how then 'would a 67% rate ATS fall to 50% or lower?'

**mitch51** · 10-11-14, 06:45 PM

Originally posted by lingumloda

Mitch do you play both lane 1 and 2 ? I value your opinion and insight, thanks !

Yes, we do play both cards. We thought about only playing card 1 but his card 2 was the card that won it for him last year. I think if you just take card 1 you'll be missing out on some money. We also play double units on each game as we view this as a money making opportunity in the NFL. That's why we like this thread.

Mitch & Ali

**TwoWays** · 10-11-14, 06:51 PM

this thread should only consists of two types of posts. 1st is his picks. the 2nd should be posters giving thanks for the picks. instead we got a lot of jibberish in between.

**NYSportsGuy210** · 10-11-14, 09:55 PM

I played his second lane last week and did well. I had a feeling he would do well on that as I had two of his dog picks on my radar already. I think his lane 1 picks go 4 and 1 this week.

BOL all.

**Everydaysbsat** · 10-11-14, 10:25 PM

Thanks for the effort in following the guy and posting the picks. I played all 9 last weekend and it was a losing day, but clearly this guy has demonstrated his capping ability and I'll stick with it

**Everydaysbsat** · 10-11-14, 10:27 PM

Originally posted by jmathes

Good luck this weekend guys! He picked buffalo twice so far this year and is 3-0 on his best bets and they have all been huge blowouts.

DAVIDFROHARDT LANE1 PIT MIA BUF BAL ARI
DAVIDFROHARDT LANE2 NYJ TEN MIN CAR BUF

DAVIDFROHARDT LANE1 19 6 0 19

DAVIDFROHARDT LANE2 15 10 0 15

How does one know which of the 10 picks is his best bet?

**Everydaysbsat** · 10-11-14, 10:27 PM

Nvm...it's the pick he makes for both lanes. Thx

**MexicanStallion** · 10-11-14, 11:31 PM

Originally posted by Everydaysbsat

Nvm...it's the pick he makes for both lanes. Thx

Whichever Lane is winning gets his priority picks.

**Venom OG** · 10-11-14, 11:41 PM

Lol at Lane 1 and Lane 2. I see his picks going roughly 0-10 this week.

**POOLSIDE** · 10-12-14, 03:14 AM

Originally posted by Venom OG

Lol at Lane 1 and Lane 2. I see his picks going roughly 0-10 this week.

That must be some really good og

**Slanina** · 10-12-14, 05:49 PM

Only had 3 plays I was on with him. But watching the final of Miami, Denver and Jax was one costly minute for him. Especially Denver. Wow

**afgballer56** · 10-12-14, 10:54 PM

Jmathes
whers his algorithems now
BS instincts over math

**eidolon** · 10-13-14, 12:07 AM

The guy in the lead went 5-0 this week

**sports_quant99** · 10-13-14, 12:53 AM

Originally posted by LokcItUp

Historically, the point spread matters in the NFL only about 15% to 18% of the time. That is, between 82% and 85% of the time the team that wins also covers the pointspread. If one was to follow his top 5 plays and let's say was able to get the same number 3x and on the other two plays was off by .5-1.5 points how then 'would a 67% rate ATS fall to 50% or lower?'

It wouldnt. In the NFL, 1 point is (on the average) worth about 2.5%

So a 67% rate would fall to:
Off by 0.5 points: 65.75%
Off by 1 points: 64.50%
Off by 1.5 points: 63.25%

**sports_quant99** · 10-13-14, 12:57 AM

Originally posted by afgballer56

Jmathes
whers his algorithems now
BS instincts over math

Instincts lose to math over the long run. Billy Walters, Dr Bob, this guy in the contest: Math models - the only way to really win over the long term. Computers will beat people who use instinct in any data-intensive contest or game.

**POOLSIDE** · 10-13-14, 03:26 AM

Originally posted by afgballer56

Jmathes
whers his algorithems now
BS instincts over math

You only had to wait six weeks to post this. "Instincts". Uh huh.

**afgballer56** · 10-13-14, 10:10 AM

No actually last three weeks i was writing about it

Originally posted by POOLSIDE

You only had to wait six weeks to post this. "Instincts". Uh huh.

**mitch51** · 10-13-14, 10:59 AM

I'll take a math model over a gut feeling every time. But I have a graduate degree and have had a hell of a lot of math. If you don't do your own capping, or sit around waiting for a gut feeling, oh well. This Lane guy is gonna be up big at the end of the year. He just regressed a little is all. Part of betting. A math model is your only hope in the NFL any more.

**TwoWays** · 10-13-14, 04:47 PM

did anyone check his twitter to see what to play tongiht? he got game!

**Marooner** · 10-13-14, 04:55 PM

Originally posted by TwoWays

did anyone check his twitter to see what to play tongiht? he got game!

his pick for tonights game doesn't come out til tomorrow. word on the street is he like sf. straight moneyline pick, as always.

**NYSportsGuy210** · 10-13-14, 07:40 PM

Lane 1: 2-3

Lane 2: 0-4-1

**MexicanStallion** · 10-13-14, 08:02 PM

Originally posted by NYSportsGuy210

Lane 1: 2-3

Lane 2: 0-4-1

What was the push?

Lane 1 should have been 3-2. Lane 2 should have been 1-4

**uup115** · 10-13-14, 08:10 PM

Originally posted by mitch51

I'll take a math model over a gut feeling every time. But I have a graduate degree and have had a hell of a lot of math. If you don't do your own capping, or sit around waiting for a gut feeling, oh well. This Lane guy is gonna be up big at the end of the year. He just regressed a little is all. Part of betting. A math model is your only hope in the NFL any more.

Just ask yourself how the books set the lines, math models or tossing chicken bones into a cast circle?

**Tommy Karate** · 10-13-14, 08:11 PM

every now and again i like to pop into threads like this.....it truly is mind blowing how dumb and desperate people are.
sexy talk gets the novices every time....

**Tommy Karate** · 10-13-14, 08:12 PM

Originally posted by MexicanStallion

Whichever Lane is winning gets his priority picks.

haha...
oh mex stallion..you love all this ATS record tracking.

**Tommy Karate** · 10-13-14, 08:20 PM

Originally posted by mitch51

I'll take a math model over a gut feeling every time. But I have a graduate degree and have had a hell of a lot of math. If you don't do your own capping, or sit around waiting for a gut feeling, oh well. This Lane guy is gonna be up big at the end of the year. He just regressed a little is all. Part of betting. A math model is your only hope in the NFL any more.

a math model is your only hope in the NFL.

good lord...

**TwoWays** · 10-13-14, 08:21 PM

this guy is good. does he provide monthly subscriptions

**jt315** · 10-13-14, 08:23 PM

Originally posted by MexicanStallion

What was the push?

Lane 1 should have been 3-2. Lane 2 should have been 1-4

This is correct using contest lines.