Betting - Mathematical approach

[omgbokie]

"A mathematical theory is not to be considered complete
until you have made it so clear that you can explain it to
the first man whom you meet on the streat."

- David Hilbert (1862-1943) -

[omgbokie]

Hi, I would like to talk about serious betting and the way that the true gambler approaches to it.
The way he chooses invest amounts
(whether he chooses Kelly's criterion or something else..),
or the most profitable system to extract maximum money
(doubles or trebles or..).
------------------------
I'm not opening this theme for "martingale supporters" and homemade systems, I want to talk about betting from the real, scientific, point of view.
(And if you want to include tips and tipsters into this talk, then be prepared to give their full statistics, including some standard deviation calculus on them, so we can conclude which one is true and which one was just lucky..)

[smoke a bowl]

"A mathematical theory is not to be considered complete
until you have made it so clear that you can explain it to
the first man whom you meet on the streat."

- David Hilbert (1862-1943) -

Who cares what those Nazis have to say? Welcome aboard omg.

[Russian Rocket]

Who cares what those Nazis have to say? Welcome aboard omg.

SaB, don't you think it would've been much better, if he asked this question through a simple poll?

[smoke a bowl]

SaB, don't you think it would've been much better, if he asked this question through a simple poll?

Lmao. One thing's for sure, he would have done a better job than me with the poll.

[Russian Rocket]

Lmao. One thing's for sure, he would have done a better job than me with the poll.

polls rule....and we know it

[jjgold]

Looks like Bot or a tout

checking into his IP now

[niming]

Hi, I would like to talk about serious betting and the way that the true gambler approaches to it.
The way he chooses invest amounts
(whether he chooses Kelly's criterion or something else..),
or the most profitable system to extract maximum money
(doubles or trebles or..).
------------------------
I'm not opening this theme for "martingale supporters" and homemade systems, I want to talk about betting from the real, scientific, point of view.
(And if you want to include tips and tipsters into this talk, then be prepared to give their full statistics, including some standard deviation calculus on them, so we can conclude which one is true and which one was just lucky..)

i like doubles when many selections in one day. if enough winners, more profits. good for horse racing

but in general, mathematic approach gives me headache. you should try think tank forum

[omgbokie]

I'm not a bot, but I am a foreigner

hi all,

I don't want to cause any headache to anyone
maybe I could try on think tank, but those guys probably like to talk "smart talks" and I like to keep it casual.. I believe that too many people fails to achieve profit on betting - not because they pick too many bad picks, but because they fail to choose appropriate invest amount and system (doubles, trebles..)

That is why I started this subject and I plan to give an elegant solution to the problem, without making anybody on doing any math homework

The example would be when few games are playing at the same time.. the question is: what system to play if you have 6 games with odds +100 and chances of 60% to win each? Now, dont start with questions like "how do you know that the chances are really 60%..." Instead, try to imagine what does the answer to that question mean.

To me, it is a way to pull maximum money out from whatever I am capable to predict in (any kind of) betting. I call it maximization. And I consider it to be - a fundamental thing to know - for anyone who ever dreamed to be a successfull in betting.

So, the answer is: system 2 out of 6 with invest 59.7% of your initial Bank will bring you a gain of 12.8% per played system. It is in a long term maximum, that can be achieved, in theory.

Of course, non of this make sence to those among us who believe that it is too complicated for them to apply it on their picks, or don't believe it is important..

[omgbokie]

FYI 2/6 after 30 cycles brings somewhat around 50% more gain than 1/6 (singles) or 3/6...

[omgbokie]

in the example above.. of course, with other parameters it gives different output..

[sweethook]

some just smoke a bowl , talk sht and roll a few numbers ...call it math . you got to live math you cant fake it

[smoke a bowl]

some just smoke a bowl , talk sht and roll a few numbers ...call it math . you got to live math you cant fake it

[grease lightnin]

hi all,

I don't want to cause any headache to anyone
maybe I could try on think tank, but those guys probably like to talk "smart talks" and I like to keep it casual.. I believe that too many people fails to achieve profit on betting - not because they pick too many bad picks, but because they fail to choose appropriate invest amount and system (doubles, trebles..)

That is why I started this subject and I plan to give an elegant solution to the problem, without making anybody on doing any math homework

The example would be when few games are playing at the same time.. the question is: what system to play if you have 6 games with odds +100 and chances of 60% to win each? Now, dont start with questions like "how do you know that the chances are really 60%..." Instead, try to imagine what does the answer to that question mean.

To me, it is a way to pull maximum money out from whatever I am capable to predict in (any kind of) betting. I call it maximization. And I consider it to be - a fundamental thing to know - for anyone who ever dreamed to be a successfull in betting.

So, the answer is: system 2 out of 6 with invest 59.7% of your initial Bank will bring you a gain of 12.8% per played system. It is in a long term maximum, that can be achieved, in theory.

Of course, non of this make sence to those among us who believe that it is too complicated for them to apply it on their picks, or don't believe it is important..

Tout.

[uvarunthetable]

VERY useful thread here,keep up the good work!i guarantee you will be beating the books in no time,your grasp of advanced mathematical concepts is unparalleled

[eidolon]

NFL season must be upon us.
This should be another good one

[niming]

something fishy here