Has anyone tried this?

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  • bruenc
    SBR Wise Guy
    • 05-26-10
    • 529

    #1
    Has anyone tried this?
    Has anyone tested in game betting on heavy road favorites after a shutout top of the first inning? I figure you would get better much better odds if u really so like a specific game/team.
  • jayc88
    Restricted User
    • 12-30-07
    • 6785

    #2
    You will obviously get better odds since the home Team still has 9 Innings to play.
    This will not be profitable lt .
    Comment
    • KVB
      SBR Aristocracy
      • 05-29-14
      • 74866

      #3
      My thoughts...you would need exceptionally good odds, which you won't get, and you will likely be paying a lot of vigorish for what you do get, which counts in the long run.
      Comment
      • sportsguy4
        SBR Wise Guy
        • 03-12-08
        • 622

        #4
        Just tried it. Took the Dodgers at -105 instead of -123 before the game. Still believe the Dodgers will win tonight. Played 3.5 U on it.
        Comment
        • KVB
          SBR Aristocracy
          • 05-29-14
          • 74866

          #5
          Nice hit.


          Comment
          • krk1030
            SBR Posting Legend
            • 08-13-08
            • 17610

            #6
            This may make sense if the team is heavy chalk mainly because of their starting pitcher.
            Comment
            • bruenc
              SBR Wise Guy
              • 05-26-10
              • 529

              #7
              Played both oak and lad after top of first and got better odds, but as mentioned above it is still a lot of juice to be playing on games like Oakland.
              Comment
              • asdf21
                SBR High Roller
                • 06-21-14
                • 173

                #8
                Where is the edge... you get better odds but less probability of winning
                Comment
                • upscope
                  SBR MVP
                  • 04-26-11
                  • 2837

                  #9
                  I don't like it. Rather pay the xtra vig & give me that xtra inning of offense to jump on the favorable pitching match-UP. that's what you're paying the vig for anyhow.
                  Comment
                  • TheCentaur
                    SBR Hall of Famer
                    • 06-28-11
                    • 8108

                    #10
                    Only works if the opposing pitcher is left handed coming off a loss and the weather is partly cloudy
                    Comment
                    • BasesLoaded314
                      SBR High Roller
                      • 04-10-14
                      • 125

                      #11
                      L10 years, road faves that fail to score in the 1st are 2683-2735. average pregame odds were -135. so, a rough estimate says you would need to be offered approx 35 cents for this to be practical. the problem is that when the road fave DOES score in the top 1st, they go on to win 68.6% of the time (1669-765)..... except that you probably weren't on those games, because they got even more expensive than u wanted
                      Comment
                      • RavensFan2k3
                        SBR Posting Legend
                        • 08-18-12
                        • 17378

                        #12
                        Originally posted by asdf21
                        Where is the edge... you get better odds but less probability of winning
                        How does the probability of winning change?
                        Comment
                        • Big Bear
                          SBR Aristocracy
                          • 11-01-11
                          • 43253

                          #13
                          Originally posted by TheCentaur
                          Only works if the opposing pitcher is left handed coming off a loss and the weather is partly cloudy
                          this.
                          Comment
                          • asdf21
                            SBR High Roller
                            • 06-21-14
                            • 173

                            #14
                            Originally posted by RavensFan2k3
                            How does the probability of winning change?
                            Home team has 9 innings left to score, away team only 8. See the post above yours for statistics.
                            Comment
                            • bruenc
                              SBR Wise Guy
                              • 05-26-10
                              • 529

                              #15
                              Originally posted by BasesLoaded314
                              L10 years, road faves that fail to score in the 1st are 2683-2735. average pregame odds were -135. so, a rough estimate says you would need to be offered approx 35 cents for this to be practical. the problem is that when the road fave DOES score in the top 1st, they go on to win 68.6% of the time (1669-765)..... except that you probably weren't on those games, because they got even more expensive than u wanted
                              Thank you that is the info I was looking for
                              Comment
                              • sweethook
                                SBR Posting Legend
                                • 11-21-07
                                • 12667

                                #16
                                takes to big of a roll so slow your roll , gl
                                Comment
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