How high can the stock market go before a correction?

[brooks85]

this is just stupid, market shouldn't even be down and disney should be edging up towards 100. People selling because price of oil is down, so dumb.

[jjgold]

good little correction

Markets rarely moves on what matters

external forces move it a lot

[brooks85]

disney killing it, parks reached maximum capacity

http://www.fool.com/investing/general/2014/12/26/sorry-folks-parks-closed-a-disney-christmas.aspx

[Boner_18]

Good day to get long(er). Buying:

200 SPY 2/15 199 strike calls - $1106
500 SPY 2/15 205 strike calls - $1500

$2140
$3090

Profit of $1034 and $1590 about 100%.

Likely rolling these into Jan or Feb 2016's @ 3-5% gain on the S&P... the 215 Feb 2016's cost about $900 for 21k exposure to the index..

[brooks85]

nice call!

[Boner_18]

Thanks. Rolling some into:

5x Jan 2016 220s on the SPY = $3400

Hoping for high single digit returns by mid year or Q3 on the broad market.

[brooks85]

Those dis 92.5 jan 17 are on their way, lots of time to run too

there it is

[Boner_18]

Dipped heavily on the SPY calls. Probably could have timed it better. Still optimistic about a high single digit % gain for the year.

[jjgold]

single Option trading is a losing prop

Spread Options
Selling Premium much better shot

[brooks85]

I'm counting on a strong year, dow getting very close to 20000 at least

[brooks85]

damn... pump the brakes

[Snowball]

will go up until the plug is pulled out
then be worthless.

[brooks85]

as long as kids are still being born in the world, Disney will never be worthless

[Russian Rocket]

will go up until the plug is pulled out
then be worthless.

and who's gonna pull the plug?

[jjgold]

The greatest trades in recent financial market history are

Buy oil … Sell 30 year treasuries… Buy Russia..buy euro

[brooks85]

The greatest trades in recent financial market history are

Buy oil … Sell 30 year treasuries… Buy Russia..buy euro

I'm no commodity expert but from the few I do follow, including Prince Alwaleed bin Talal, the guy who called this oil crash a year ago(others did too), oil isn't going up any time soon; next few years

[jjgold]

We will see… The stock market will be down 15% by the end of the year

[brooks85]

Personally I want to sell most of my stock and buy oil.

For like the past 50-60 years, each time oil has gone down as a %( can't remember what the exact number was) equal to the recent drop, 5/5 times it has returned 50% or more within 6 months.

I'm going to buy some contracts, just not yet.

[jjgold]

Corrections are good

[Maverick11]

Personally I want to sell most of my stock and buy oil.

For like the past 50-60 years, each time oil has gone down as a %( can't remember what the exact number was) equal to the recent drop, 5/5 times it has returned 50% or more within 6 months.

I'm going to buy some contracts, just not yet.

I play the market quite a bit.......What particular oil stock or fund etc. do you recommend?

[Petey Wheatstraw]

DOW 38,000

Than Sell

[brooks85]

I play the market quite a bit.......What particular oil stock or fund etc. do you recommend?

honestly I don't know yet. If I buy something related I'll post. I know as far as energy, solar is guarantee winner for the next decade and even longer in India. I don't remember the exact numbers but the shift to solar energy over the next 10-20 years here was huge. A lot of hype in Europe too, that their market will be the next fantasy land thanks to their fed so I gotta get more diversified internationally.

I see oil drop like this and like most I think how in the hell can it not go back up 20%, at least, which I'll take that all day like anyone else. But, then you look at global demand; garbage. Look at supply; not going any lower. Basic economics tell you, oil isn't going anywhere for the next couple years.

However, history shows 5/5 oil has returned 50% in 6 months so odds certainly on oil's side.

I know I'm watching PBR like a hawk, dirt cheap and just don't get how it can't go higher. Of course, unless oil stays low. Fighting the urge to buy in heavy, feels like when I bought MACK at $6-7. And this is oil, not some biotech. Everybody needs oil right?

[Boner_18]

Personally I want to sell most of my stock and buy oil.

For like the past 50-60 years, each time oil has gone down as a %( can't remember what the exact number was) equal to the recent drop, 5/5 times it has returned 50% or more within 6 months.

I'm going to buy some contracts, just not yet.

This is also attractive to me... just scared to catch the falling knife.

[brooks85]

This is also attractive to me... just scared to catch the falling knife.

yeah, same here

Some food for thought though and I'll start by saying not sure if this applies to commodities but I would think it would be similar enough to mean something. Maybe not though.

But, at least for global markets the following is true; If you wait until the historically popular fundamentals and technicals to show it is time to invest, on you average you missed out on the first 100% of the run.

I heard that the other day in regards to why Europe should be in my portfolio.

[brooks85]

oil down big again, market isn't freaking out yet

[brooks85]

there it goes

[Ralphie Halves]

Trying to catch a falling knife again, fellas?

Let me know how it goes.

[boomer62]

I don't see the market getting much higher, will be flat or will go down. Funny for the last few years majority of corporations have no top line growth, thanks to Fed and zero interest rates. Earnings coming out again and most company's forward guidance seems status quo with slow growth. The play should be international stocks and markets as they start doing their own QE like we have done.
i don't know the commodities market well but I would look at gold and silver for long term due to all the currencies falling with all the debt out there. Oil will go up too but not sure how to play it with calls and contracts and timing.

[jjgold]

There are definitely opportunities in the currency and commodity markets but like Boomer says you don't know how to time it

Stocks will be flattened 2015 which is not a bad thing

[DrunkHorseplayer]

We will see… The stock market will be down 15% by the end of the year

You're crazy.

[brooks85]

and here we go, ECB does their own QE. Hop on board.

[jjgold]

Oil still on its lows..cannot go higher and no idea why

[brooks85]

sounds like it will be going to the 30s.

India is going to have another good year in part of lower oil cost, lots of ways to play it.

[brooks85]

restaurant industry really benefiting from cheap oil

[TheMoneyShot]

This OIL is one rigged sh#$ hole. I don't believe in any of this sh#$.