How high can the stock market go before a correction?

[TheCentaur]

Getting kind of ridiculous now

[z-doggie]

good question...

can you make better money in " legal gambling "

I got some money in there in a IRA but real conservative....never played the market other wise..

[BIGDAY]

Dow will hit 20k.

[frogsrangers]

As long as the federal reserve and Yellen continue to pump $85 billion every month

Notice how the market dips each time they talk about cutting back on QE

[frogsrangers]

Stock market huge bubble right now.... only people benefitting are big banks and the wealthy

[TheCentaur]

Seems like so many people are cautiously riding out this good run and as soon there are hints of a correction it will plunge like never before

[Boner_18]

The correct answer is infinity. Since the market is priced in dollars it will continue to soar as the fed devalues the usd. Think about it - if you suddenly have $2 where you used to have $1 then anything priced @ $10 should instantly be repriced @ $20 and a market @ $1240 would be $2480. The Fed is talking about slowing easing (not stopping or reversing), id expect the market to continue to march upward, though the slope should flatten... it isnt overvalued, your dollars are.

[Boner_18]

I dont expect a 10% or more correction for 3+ years.

[TheCentaur]

The correct answer is infinity. Since the market is priced in dollars it will continue to soar as the fed devalues the usd. Think about it - if you suddenly have $2 where you used to have $1 then anything priced @ $10 should instantly be repriced @ $20 and a market @ $1240 would be $2480. The Fed is talking about slowing easing (not stopping or reversing), id expect the market to continue to march upward, though the slope should flatten... it isnt overvalued, your dollars are.

Isn't all that irrelevant though once there is some sort of scare and the market cascades downward from fear and stop losses? If it were only about fundamentals we wouldn't see drastic dips and peaks like we do. Isn't a default by the Treasury a realistic scenario also?

[Deuce]

Sell now???? Portfolio all time high.

[Bostongambler]

Bought Apple ( aapl) and Rite Aid (Rad)

[Boner_18]

Some sort of scare and fear must rise to a level of serious crisis like that seen in 2008. Its simply not on the table right now. Companies, particularly the banks, are in 10,000x better shape today. Are there disappointments in the macro economic data, sure! But I don't think people realize how close we were to unrecoverable financial disaster in 2008.

Could there be something beneath the surface that could cause a downturn when its revealed? Sure! Nuclear war would certainly hurt the world financial markets, as would aUS default... but for now, im not gonna fight the tape, im buying with both hands.

[Boner_18]

Not to mention the non participating cash on the sidelines and the US natural resource renaissance!

[mcdonae101]

My biggest position is yahoo simply for the alibaba angle. That's going to make a lot of people a shitload

[TheMoneyShot]

IMO all it takes is one error for the market to correct itself. The errors aren't revealed yet. It's just like anything in life... you play the lottery it's a risk... some say it's a scam. You play the stock market? It's a risk... some say it's a scam. Depending on what field and team you're playing for.

Whether the error comes from a misread or a flat out scare... the market will have to correct itself. What goes up... must come down.

[I/O]

As long as the federal reserve and Yellen continue to pump $85 billion every month

Notice how the market dips each time they talk about cutting back on QE

Can't believe I'm going to agree with you on anything but you nailed it.

There's free government money out there. The US, just like the Chinese do, is ARTIFICIALLY affecting the market and the dollar. When they pull crap like this there is a price to pay. That's one of the reasons to see big money and big corporations loving the left right now.

Glad a lot of folks here are enjoying seeing their portfolios rocket up. It will be useless when you retire if a loaf of bread costs $20.

[d2bets]

Can't believe I'm going to agree with you on anything but you nailed it.

There's free government money out there. The US, just like the Chinese do, is ARTIFICIALLY affecting the market and the dollar. When they pull crap like this there is a price to pay. That's one of the reasons to see big money and big corporations loving the left right now.

Glad a lot of folks here are enjoying seeing their portfolios rocket up. It will be useless when you retire if a loaf of bread costs $20.

No. It will be a lot better than having no portfolio at all. Gotta play the hand you're dealt.

Besides, you can always just stop eating bread. It's bad for you anyway.

[I/O]

No. It will be a lot better than having no portfolio at all. Gotta play the hand you're dealt.

Besides, you can always just stop eating bread. It's bad for you anyway.

I get that captain obvious. Was trying to make the point that the current policies that are helping drive the market up aren't all that good in the long term. This administration has two more years to butcher things.

Thanks for playing

[I/O]

No. It will be a lot better than having no portfolio at all. Gotta play the hand you're dealt.

Besides, you can always just stop eating bread. It's bad for you anyway.

There are many options one can get into other than the stock market.

[Mac4Lyfe]

This administration has made me a shit load of money. Obama, Clinton and Reagan all made me wealthy. The rest, including the bitches talking negative about Obama can eat a dick. I wish we could elect him for 4 more years.

[I/O]

This administration has made me a shit load of money. Obama, Clinton and Reagan all made me wealthy. The rest, including the bitches talking negative about Obama can eat a dick. I wish we could elect him for 4 more years.

Didn't make any money during any of the Bush terms??

Figures, you are fond of dicks

[OptimistPrime]

Well historically speaking there is an average time of 7 or so years between recessions, so we are due for one. During the 90s was our longest stretch without one.

[Bostongambler]

All the talking heads on Bloomberg say it still has room to go up.

[I/O]

All the talking heads on Bloomberg say it still has room to go up.

of course they do

[Bostongambler]

Lol... Very true

[brooks85]

IMO all it takes is one error for the market to correct itself. The errors aren't revealed yet. It's just like anything in life... you play the lottery it's a risk... some say it's a scam. You play the stock market? It's a risk... some say it's a scam. Depending on what field and team you're playing for.

Whether the error comes from a misread or a flat out scare... the market will have to correct itself. What goes up... must come down.

This is spot on because a correction is not organic, it's not something that happens naturally even though it does happen regularly during bull runs. Something sets off a correction. I'd say the next one is going to be when the fed ticks up interest rates to 1/4% or 1/2%. But, even then, that does not mean it won't come back.

Anyone watch delivering alpha today?

[jjgold]

Anyone shorting the market absolutely lost everything they owned

If you want to good strategy by VIx futures and also sell calls against it

All the average people could've made a killing but were afraid to invest

Only way to make money in today's stock market is scalping meaning very short duration trades

[d2bets]

Well historically speaking there is an average time of 7 or so years between recessions, so we are due for one. During the 90s was our longest stretch without one.

Recession not the same as bull market. Secular bull markets can last for decades. Pretty much '83-'00 was a secular bull. So now it's '09-? Only 5 years now. Could easily last another decade. There will be dips of course, but the market should be 2.5x now in a decade.

[jjgold]

I think this one is just in the early stages

The economy is gradually picking up and all the numbers show it

Sure were going to get a correction but I don't think shorting the market in the next five years is a good thing

[The Kraken]

It will get to 30000

Never doubt the power of the Plunge Protection Team

Stock market is one big ass , rigged bubble. With federal protection

[THam12]

Biotechs for the win.

Oncs.
Ino.

[Mac4Lyfe]

Are you serious?

Daddy Bush fukked us in the ass with his "No New Taxes" bullshit. Then his spending on wars we shouldn't have been fighting, billions on his BS war on drugs, largest budget deficits in US history, highest unemployment in history, drove us into an economic recession. He screwed me by increasing the marginal tax rate but largely by phasing out exemptions for high earners and increasing the capital gains tax. His NAFTA agreement hurt many low income workers in the US and we are just now feeling the effect with so many people bombarding our borders as a result. Black Monday under his watch saw the largest single day drop in the stock market, worst than the collapse of 1929. Most people's 401k's plummeted 30% in a few hours. While the economy went from bad to worse. No I didn't make any money under daddy Bush.

George W reduced tax rates and capital gains but we had the mortgage crisis and increased government spending, the most since Lyndon Johnson, adding to the national debt. Bush's cuts reduced the capability of funding Social Security, Medicare, schools, research, local infrastructures. Education in America was obliterated under Bush. We use to be one of the smartest nations in the world. Today, we are one of the worst. Bush's lack of investing in our youth is to be blamed.

I'm neither a Democrat nor a Republican. I don't give a shit about either party. I am an opportunist and I'm pro America. I made money in spite of the Bush's. They had nothing to do with it. I will give them credit for building up the state of Texas (where I currently live). The state has had a lot of success the past decade and they were a big reason.

Didn't make any money during any of the Bush terms??

Figures, you are fond of dicks

[Boner_18]

[jjgold]

too much positive news out there for a big crash unless a big terror attack or something major in another Country happens

[Pigpen]

Are you serious?

Daddy Bush fukked us in the ass with his "No New Taxes" bullshit. Then his spending on wars we shouldn't have been fighting, billions on his BS war on drugs, largest budget deficits in US history, highest unemployment in history, drove us into an economic recession. He screwed me by increasing the marginal tax rate but largely by phasing out exemptions for high earners and increasing the capital gains tax. His NAFTA agreement hurt many low income workers in the US and we are just now feeling the effect with so many people bombarding our borders as a result. Black Monday under his watch saw the largest single day drop in the stock market, worst than the collapse of 1929. Most people's 401k's plummeted 30% in a few hours. While the economy went from bad to worse. No I didn't make any money under daddy Bush.

George W reduced tax rates and capital gains but we had the mortgage crisis and increased government spending, the most since Lyndon Johnson, adding to the national debt. Bush's cuts reduced the capability of funding Social Security, Medicare, schools, research, local infrastructures. Education in America was obliterated under Bush. We use to be one of the smartest nations in the world. Today, we are one of the worst. Bush's lack of investing in our youth is to be blamed.

I'm neither a Democrat nor a Republican. I don't give a shit about either party. I am an opportunist and I'm pro America. I made money in spite of the Bush's. They had nothing to do with it. I will give them credit for building up the state of Texas (where I currently live). The state has had a lot of success the past decade and they were a big reason.

Disagree with that. 1929 crash was much worse by far.