I have 3 team parley 2 games have won and I have Marshall tonight -3.5 the parley pays 250 should I hedge how much should I bet on c Florida or should I just let it ride. I hardly never hedge my bets but I figure because I am really trying to become a better money management player I should take advantages of opportunities like this.
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you should not hedge your bet.. if you need to hedge your bet then you should have played your parlay for less money.Comment -
To hedge it means, “I screwed up and never should have bet this three team parlay. I should have just bet it as a two team parlay and that way it would already have won and I wouldn’t have to sweat this last game. I want to undo my error so bad that I’ll play the other side now and forfeit the juice just to lock in this profit.”
In other words, you should either:
1. Not hedge, or
2. Hedge, but remember as a lesson for next time that you shouldn’t be betting parlays since you lose your nerve when you get ahead. Just bet straight.Comment -
Post the terms of the bet and your bankroll, and I'll tell you the correct action.Comment -
It's getting a little late for that.Comment -
sje,
for future referrence, my rule of thumb is hedging anywhere from 20-30%...Comment -
As they say: Parlays is an acquired taste.
Given your concern, it sounds like you would be more comfortable playing round robins.Comment -
Well I didn’t hedge my bet, but I think you guys misunderstood me I wasn’t nervous about the bet it was 30 parley I did for the hell of it on games that were on TV. I usually bet anywhere form 200-500 a game. I just wanted to know how many people out there would take a sure thing over a risk.Comment -
Given that scenario. I would have taken the 1st opportunity to lock up some profit and increase my potential overall win when Marshall scored the 1st TDComment -
I don't see any reason to hedge here. You bet the parlay thinking it was a +EV bet.
Unless your plan all along was to make this hedge (meaning you factored this into the evaluation process that you would hedge AND with the hedging it was still +EV), hedging here is a bad move.
Basically hedging here is short term (and results based) thinking. These two things are rarely good for gamblers who know what they are doing (i.e winning players).Comment -
In all fairness there are times when you may bet a parlay and some of the underlying factors that a bettor was factoring into the decision have changed. injury, weather, etc etc. which may affect your analysis of the game. At that point hedging would be a viable of for a smart bettor.
In the scenario I listed. Once Marshall was up by a TD there was probably an opportunity to get Central Florida at a better spread guaranteeing some profit and a possible middle for a double win.Comment -
In my post I didn’t mean to be literally attributing a certain psychological state of nervousness to you. I was just trying to make the point that it is generally unwise to hedge in that you are paying a penalty to “lock in a profit.”
If you find yourself undoing the last leg of a parlay like that, it just indicates you should never have included that last leg in the first place. You’re better off with a winning two team parlay than with this convoluted hedged three team parlay.Comment -
if you can lock in profit with a future, parlay or contest, I always suggest hedging a little...Comment
