Nicky how much of an edge do you need on halftime lines?

AgainstAllOdds · 03-14-09, 12:28 AM

Wow, I actually found this thread quite helpful and enjoyed reading through it. Good stuff. Just imagine if every thread was like this?!?!!?

Anyway, I just need to clarify this...With all of these examples, you are finding the actual no vig line, but for these to be effective bets, you have to use them with Kelly or no?

MonkeyF0cker · 03-14-09, 12:31 AM

Absolutely, AAO.

AgainstAllOdds · 03-14-09, 12:38 AM

Originally posted by MonkeyF0cker

Absolutely, AAO.

Ok Great. Now let me ask this...refering to Imm. post...I ended up having the same problem as him...

Originally posted by Immortality

Monkey

First off, thanks for explaining this to me and others.

I just actually tried paying attention to this stuff for the first time as it has always interested me but I have never had the time to really look into it.

I just ran the example -4000 +3000 line and got the numbers:

4000/4100 = .9756
100/3100 = .0322

I add them to get 1.0078 then

.9756/1.0078 = 96.81%
.0322/1.0078 = 3.19%

Hopefully I am on the right track but I don't know what to do with these numbers. I am a little buzzed so not the best time to try doing this.

I ran into this same problem. Where do I go from here?

Immortality · 03-14-09, 12:42 AM

For some reason the link to the calculator didn't work but I found it in a search. I plugged in both numbers and got:

96.8% = -3021.15

3.2% = +3025

What do I do next with these numbers? If it is a stupid question please say so or if there is a link so you don't have to type I would appreciate it.

AgainstAllOdds · 03-14-09, 12:44 AM

Yea...I found it but didnt know what he was referring to in this post...

Originally posted by MonkeyF0cker

Just plug the numbers into the implied probability field on the odds calculator and it should spit out the line for you.

Immortality, you have a link that works?

Immortality · 03-14-09, 12:47 AM

Originally posted by AgainstAllOdds

Yea...I found it but didnt know what he was referring to in this post...

Immortality, you have a link that works?

This post will give you all the calculators

http://forum.sbrforum.com/players-talk/18229-betting-tools-temporary-home.html#post158917

AgainstAllOdds · 03-14-09, 12:49 AM

Yea but what calculator did you use?

MonkeyF0cker · 03-14-09, 12:50 AM

Sorry. I'm typing this all on my iPhone cuz I'm not at home. I fixed the link. I had it as calculator rather than converter.

Immortality · 03-14-09, 12:51 AM

Originally posted by AgainstAllOdds

Yea but what calculator did you use?

Odds converter

Plug the numbers into the Implied Probability

AgainstAllOdds · 03-14-09, 12:52 AM

Got it

MonkeyF0cker · 03-14-09, 12:54 AM

Usually, the line won't have that disparity. Since the line is so big, the calculator rounded. The real no vig is between the two lines you get. Normally, they should be identical (although the favorite will be - and the dog +). What you have now is the line you need to beat, either way, to have an edge.

Immortality · 03-14-09, 12:56 AM

Originally posted by MonkeyF0cker

Usually, the line won't have that disparity. Since the line is so big, the calculator rounded. The real no vig is between the two lines you get. Normally, they should be identical (although the favorite will be - and the dog +). What you have now is the line you need to beat, either way to have an edge.

Awesome

Thanks again. I really appreciate it, especially since you are posting away from your home on your cell.

AgainstAllOdds · 03-14-09, 12:57 AM

Okay so where did we acutally get these lines from? I mean, are these opening numbers or closing numbers?

And how much would this particular line need to be beat by and does it vary with the amount of vig in the line?

MonkeyF0cker · 03-14-09, 01:04 AM

We were supposing this number would be the Pinny closer, AAO. Any time you beat that number, you would have an edge. The amount that you beat it by (your edge) depends on the number you get, obviously. You will need it to be significantly larger the longer the odds are. The amount you need to beat it by depends on your confidence on the efficiency of the closing number. But any time you get an edge of over 2% is a good starting point.

Immortality · 03-14-09, 01:09 AM

Originally posted by MonkeyF0cker

We were supposing this number would be the Pinny closer, AAO. Any time you beat that number, you would have an edge. The amount that you beat it by (your edge) depends on the number you get, obviously. You will need it to be significantly larger the longer the odds are. The amount you need to beat it by depends on your confidence on the efficiency of the closing number. But any time you get an edge of over 2% is a good starting point.

This what Justin was talking about in a video where he said pick a consistent closing time of less then 60 minutes before the start of the event correct?

MonkeyF0cker · 03-14-09, 01:12 AM

I believe so, Immortality. Not sure if I've seen the video but that sounds about right.

AgainstAllOdds · 03-14-09, 01:13 AM

1. If this is based off of closing numbers, how would we know when we are beating the line during the day? I mean, (hypothetically speaking) at 1pm I get -3000 at a off book when the line is -3500 everywhere else. I have an edge here. But then by closing time it reaches -2900 and I just lost the edge. So I guess is how do we calculate these numbers before hand?

2. Based on the numbers we have been using, what would a 2% edge be on -3021 or +3025?

btw, thanks for your help on this.

AgainstAllOdds · 03-14-09, 01:14 AM

LOL I asked the same question imm did....so 60 mins looks about right?

Immortality · 03-14-09, 01:16 AM

Originally posted by AgainstAllOdds

1. If this is based off of closing numbers, how would we know when we are beating the line during the day? I mean, (hypothetically speaking) at 1pm I get -3000 at a off book when the line is -3500 everywhere else. I have an edge here. But then by closing time it reaches -2900 and I just lost the edge. So I guess is how do we calculate these numbers before hand?

2. Based on the numbers we have been using, what would a 2% edge be on -3021 or +3025?

btw, thanks for your help on this.

AAO watch this video. Just talks about it. I believe he said be consistent in your time and never more than 60 minutes from event time. I am a little drunk so don't go off me but Justin in the video.

tullamore · 03-14-09, 01:16 AM

Originally posted by AgainstAllOdds

LOL I asked the same question imm did....so 60 mins looks about right?

I am no math expert, and I am not speaking for Justin, but I believe his point was to consistently use the same time within the closing 60 minutes.

Immortality · 03-14-09, 01:19 AM

AAO

5:35 of the video Justin talks about your question.

MonkeyF0cker · 03-14-09, 01:26 AM

To find the number that would equate to a 2% edge, just add 2% to either no vig percentage and plug it into the converter. The numbers we used aren't realistic for that big of an edge actually.

MonkeyF0cker · 03-14-09, 01:29 AM

I have to run since I'm about to play poker. If you have any more questions, I'll get to them either late tonight or tomorrow.

AgainstAllOdds · 03-14-09, 01:30 AM

Yea the vids pretty good...but I dont understand how if we are placing our bets during the day, we are realizing we are beating the closing line. I mean I can look at odds and beat the line that is currently available, but that doesnt mean I will beat it after I calculate it at closing time.

Understand what Im trying to say? If you do, explain how we calculate this.

MonkeyF0cker · 03-14-09, 01:33 AM

And yeah, sometimes the market moves against your number, AAO. That's why it's less risky to hit them near the close. You want to look for stable Pinny numbers and a significant difference on another book when you start doing this.

AgainstAllOdds · 03-14-09, 01:37 AM

nvm....thank you

donjuan · 03-14-09, 01:40 AM

Yea the vids pretty good...but I dont understand how if we are placing our bets during the day, we are realizing we are beating the closing line. I mean I can look at odds and beat the line that is currently available, but that doesnt mean I will beat it after I calculate it at closing time.

Understand what Im trying to say? If you do, explain how we calculate this.

If the line moves against you after you place the bet, oh well. It'll move against you as often as it moves with you if you are just playing off numbers. But you can calculate your equity based on the closing line (or the current line if you want to calculate it throughout the day).

You guys feel like doing a slightly more advanced example where you find a bet that is out there right now with a 9% edge at -125 based on current market odds? Alternatively, I could tell you what the bet is so that it doesn't move before you get a chance to bet it and then tell you how I arrived at that conclusion.

MonkeyF0cker · 03-14-09, 01:41 AM

Its the first step and it's going to take some trial and error. You can practice it without actually placing the bets for a while...

AgainstAllOdds · 03-14-09, 01:43 AM

How do you find the no vig line(Which leads to your finding the edge and your stake size) without knowing the closing number?

I think that may be my problem here.

MonkeyF0cker · 03-14-09, 01:43 AM

Cool. Take it over, dj. I gotta run.

donjuan · 03-14-09, 01:44 AM

How do you find the no vig line(Which leads to your finding the edge and your stake size) without knowing the closing number?

Current market (Pinnacle, for example) number.

Immortality · 03-14-09, 01:45 AM

Originally posted by donjuan

If the line moves against you after you place the bet, oh well. It'll move against you as often as it moves with you if you are just playing off numbers. But you can calculate your equity based on the closing line (or the current line if you want to calculate it throughout the day).

You guys feel like doing a slightly more advanced example where you find a bet that is out there right now with a 9% edge at -125 based on current market odds? Alternatively, I could tell you what the bet is so that it doesn't move before you get a chance to bet it and then tell you how I arrived at that conclusion.

I would love to see a more advanced example like a 9% edge.

AgainstAllOdds · 03-14-09, 01:59 AM

Originally posted by donjuan

Current market (Pinnacle, for example) number.

So basically, you can find this anytime of the day, but you dont bet it until the 60 mins before the closing line(as justin said). Or are you saying you just find it during the day to give yourself a basis, and then hit it before the closing time?

AgainstAllOdds · 03-14-09, 02:01 AM

Maybe if donny has some time, we could get in sbr chat? This may be the easier way.

Immortality · 03-14-09, 02:06 AM

Originally posted by AgainstAllOdds

Maybe if donny has some time, we could get in sbr chat? This may be the easier way.

I have to go to sleep as I need to get up in 5.5 hours to watch the Liverpool/Man U soccer match. I hope the discussion stays on the board so I can catch up tomorrow.

Thanks again for all the help.