Sides or totals? How many cents edge do you need?
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Nicky is going to bury you.Comment -
Serious question here because I am a noviceComment -
man, are you ever an action junkie.. you've got about 75 games a night and now you want to double that and make it 150 bets a night by betting halftimes? onner, relax man. you have enough action with the games itself. you will lose track. and this system doesn't include halftimes. only full game totals.
relax onner. you might be the sickest guy on this site if i made my top 5 again, you might very well be #1 instead of tony soprano.
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Nicky I am only doing the unders thing and only have like 5 bets today. Should I also still try to beat the closing number on sides?
Can you just answer my halftime questions? I am trying to figure out an action plan here.Comment -
onner, i dont play halftimes. i have enough on my hands. you know how to beat sides and how much you need. i told you via PM. you've been doing it now for 2 weeks.Comment -
does the same rules apply for halftimes as full games? thats all i need to knowComment -
There's a simple answer to this: More than the vig. And you should be staking with Kelly.Comment -
Monkeyfocker do you mean with 10 cent lines set you need a 10 cent edge?
ThanksComment -
The way to find your edge is by calculating the no vig line of the assumed Pinny closer and comparing it to the line you have. I believe Justin made a video regarding this. Ganch also has a thread discussing this topic, An Introduction to Expectations and Theoretical Hold. It can be found here:
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I believe the name of Justin's video is called Calculating your Edge.Comment -
Sorry, my "simple answer" wasn't very clear. I could rehash the instructions but they are already well laid-out by both Ganch and Justin. Read that thread and watch Justin's video. If you have any questions afterward, let me know.Comment -
Thanks for the help but that stuff is over my head, I am a novice.Comment -
Its not very difficult, honestly. It's very basic math. You should probably watch Justin's video first then. It will probably be easier to follow.Comment -
The video and discussion in the thread are more basic and exactly what you are asking I think:Originally posted by onthewhat
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Thanks, smitch. Didn't have a link to that thread...Comment -
how do you figure out the no vig lineComment -
Correct me if i'm wrong but
Vig line ie -110/-110
Meaning no vig +100/+100 so anything better than +100 would be solid.Comment -
I think LT's post explains it best:Originally posted by onthewhat
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That's correct for a 20 cent line at -110 on each side, pat, but there is a little more to it when the no vig isn't +100...Comment -
nevermind
thanks for the help guysComment -
Exactly, smitch. Thanks. I was just about to type out an example. That saved me some work...Originally posted by smitch124Comment -
And people say Monkey isn't helpful. I'd be wary of using that method as you get far away from +100 though. Don't assume a +3100 bet has a positive expectation when the line is +3000/-4000 at Pinny.That's correct for a 20 cent line at -110 on each side, pat, but there is a little more to it when the no vig isn't +100...Comment -
Good info for thought, but there is not one guy here specializing in half-times who will
employ these tactics seriously in their next 1000 half time bets.Comment -
on a -4000/+3000 wouldn't a +ev bet be +3501 or higher?Comment -
No, pat. Read Justin's video thread. LT explains how to calculate the no-vig line.Comment -
In fact, use that method and give me your new answer on the no vig line of -4000/+3000 and I'll tell you if you got it or not.Comment -
After looking at the article by Ganch, the link I gave for you guys is a bit cumbersome to find the no vig line. There is a separate article that addresses this topic individually. It was only linked in the other article. You can find it here:
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And LT doesn't explain how to arrive at the implied odds. That article is much clearer.Comment -
Thanks for the link, I'll read it again tomorrow, lolOriginally posted by MonkeyF0ckerComment -
MonkeyOriginally posted by MonkeyF0cker
First off, thanks for explaining this to me and others.
I just actually tried paying attention to this stuff for the first time as it has always interested me but I have never had the time to really look into it.
I just ran the example -4000 +3000 line and got the numbers:
4000/4100 = .9756
100/3100 = .0322
I add them to get 1.0078 then
.9756/1.0078 = 96.81%
.0322/1.0078 = 3.19%
Hopefully I am on the right track but I don't know what to do with these numbers. I am a little buzzed so not the best time to try doing this.
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Basically, follow those instructions in the last article link and then plug in your zero vig probabilities into the Odds Calculator on the Betting Tools page:
Depending onwhich probability you plug in (due to the calculator rounding), the no vig line of -4000/+3000 is (actually between) -3024.39/+3024.39 or -3021.15/+3021.15Comment -
Immortality, I was writing that at the same time as you were writing your calculations. Just plug the numbers into the implied probability field on the odds calculator and it should spit out the line for you.
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You are rounding a bit early though. I got 3.20% and 96.80% but otherwise it looks good.
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Ok thanks a lot.Originally posted by MonkeyF0ckerYou are rounding a bit early though. I got 3.20% and 96.80% but otherwise it looks good.
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