You can find value in big favourites but with my system it's too hard to find them or too much work. The only times I looked into them were the days there were only a few games scheduled because I had the time. I don't look into streaks like the other guy. I know what you mean about time to get quality picks...can't get much done at work, go workout then prep dinner and eastern games just st about to start and wagering into CLV. I started to focus on west coast games or work on tomorrow's games before lines open.
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When betting Dogs,take ML
When betting favorites over -120,take RL
Totals, bet under's only......
It is that simple.....Comment -
Just only fade the cubs all year on the road & make sure you throw a lil on the -RL bc cubs suck. Also bank roll management is key, don't spend over -150 IMOComment -
I just tail a few posters here .only play 2-3 games a week
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Martingale the good teams vs the bad. high juice. Get your ass handed to you on one (series) loss. I only bet the series to win 1/4 unit. So I get my action in and don't lose my ass if I have a loss. Don't care for baseball, but has been profitable in the past (albeit not up large, just small) But doesn't take much time.Comment -
Year Long Strategy:
1. Bet Home Dogs where 70% or more is on the Favorite
2. Always Check for RLM
3. Take the 1.5 RL with Away Dogs. Home Team does not have to bat in bottom of the 9th and more games can end up 1 run games. About 30% of all games end in one run.
***This could make the Mets a +150 play todayComment -
Achilles good work
Many say never many juiceComment -
taking Justin Masterson every start
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Look for spots to take advantage of betting a teams total runs. I remember last season the red sox and tigers were big offenses but the team total was always 3.5-4.5 runs which both teams could get in one inning let alone a game.
Picking spots, managing the bank roll so that you can endure some losses, and of course pitching matchupsComment -
Eeny meeny miney moComment -
Or in my boxers at my cpu 2 minutes before the lines are taken off the board so I pick a random team cause i'm an action junkie fuk like most of youComment -
Sometimes Heavy Favorites have Value!
Example if you handicap a Team to have a 75% chance of winning, but the line is -200, then there is value in that line.
-200 is equal to 67% chance of winning, but you handicap 75% chance of winning! In this case, if your handicap is correct, you will win more money in the long run than you will lose.
Those who say, NEVER bet Heavy favorites are nothing more than long-term losers.Comment -
MartingaleComment -
Some good info men. Good luck this seasonComment -
just fade romero when he pitches for the jays.Comment -
Fade smoke.
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How about betting the same team in a 3 or 4 game series just wanting that team to win 1 game. Bet a team on game one of series if they lose then bet them on game 2. Once your team wins then stop betting. Amounts placed on each game of series are up to you. You don't have to double up use some kind of money management.Comment -
I played a fade and chase against the Astros last season. My theory was they were not likely to go on long winning streak so if you manage your BR properly, you'll be ok. I got caught in May last year when they did just that and went on a 6 game win streak beating COL and LAA. I was struggling with other bets at the time and had lost enough of my BR to not be able to cover my losses from the win streak so I had to start small again and never recovered.
They put together 9 win streaks throughout last season:
6gm - 1
4gm - 2
3gm - 1
2gm - 5Comment -
Mini MartinGale
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ML fav of the day for me. No capping, no muss, no fuss.
I use decimal odds to spot the fav. Minimum odd is 1.45 (-222)
Last year, April through Sept resulted in a 69% success rate.
If preseason is an indicator of the season, it's gonna be a great season.Comment -
when it commes to dat a, go to tge book and warch all the games at once.First 5 lines are tricky. You have to take into consideration if the pitcher(s) pitch to contact because this will have a factor in the 4th and 5th innings. The lineup will get around causing ulcers for you in the 5th inning when a leadoff walk happens and the meat of the order gets what could be a 3rd rip at your boy on the hill who is missing spots at 87mph and falls behind and has to come with a 3-1 center cut that becomes a laser beam and you lose your 1st 5 bet 3-2.
It just depends on the pitcher and the difference in price between full game and 1st 5. Factor in the bullpen usage from previous 2 games and also the dailybaseballdata.com pitcher/hitter matchups of potential pen guys versus opposing hitters and platoon bench hitters.
we are dealing with a lot of s h it here.... 2:00 mark
Holy Faaa---y. k (you mean sell more steroids)
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One, if not the.most important consideration is math, use math because baseball is a close game.Comment -
Also MLB is full of sharpie angls, as in the day detroit lost to houston at over minus 300 ( 2B cy young winner pitching) or the dodgers bringing up Puig and going on a record breaking teear...(a dodger is a kind of wiener), or pitchers against teams aka #55 of giants and san diego.Comment -
It's a good thing this thread is not in the Think TankComment -
How the fukk does a guy quit gambling until football?
No way I could do it coach.Gotta have action everyday.I don't think anyone on the board waits till football,they might say they are but no fukking way.Might tell their moms,brothers,sisters,uncles,gfs,"yeah cleaned house in football and hoops,but I don't bet baseball Uncle Joey,no one wins long term in baseball."
Lying Fukks
FieldyComment -
Now I just use the Magic 8 ball for my picks. I can think of a few guys here that should try it.
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