Nash's 2014 All things MLB Talking Baseball Thread

[No coincidences]

Except that it was for betpoints! Nasher is too smart with his $$. We need Rudy to start blind betting $500 on every 6/1 Nash parlay.

A perfect combination. Like lamb and tuna fish.

[stevenash]

Except that it was for betpoints! Nasher is too smart with his $$. We need Rudy to start blind betting $500 on every 6/1 Nash parlay.

But did have Astros at 5D for a deuce though, just for shits and giggles thought I'd thought I'd throw the Chi Sox in here for a dopey SBR parlay, good for free SBR pizza.

Lot's of options today, I just walked in, be back in a hour or two, I love the five game abbrieviated cards though, you can focus either.

[tatddy]

But did have Astros at 5D for a deuce though, just for shits and giggles thought I'd thought I'd throw the Chi Sox in here for a dopey SBR parlay, good for free SBR pizza.

Lot's of options today, I just walked in, be back in a hour or two, I love the five game abbrieviated cards though, you can focus either.

Truly great job yesterday.

[Big Bear]

Truly great job yesterday.

you like anything today tat/nash?

[PAULYPOKER]

6-1 parlay.
I get tired of looking at my points so, WTF

WagerType:PARLAY (2 TEAMS)
Date:	Team:
May 19	MLB [957] CH WHI +170 [Action]
May 19	MLB [959] HOUSTO +168 [Action]
Risking 20 SBR To Win 124.72 SBR Ticket#: 2506136

[stevenash]

^
Appreciate those words Tat, from you, means a lot.
First things that pop out.

HOLY FUK, Mr. untouchable, Tanaka, at Wrigley, the total is 8 juiced -120 over!
Don't even need to see where the wind is blowing, Tanaka and the total is 8? Yikes, looks like Yanks and Cubs are going to do some hitting.

Also, see the juice (-130) on KC (8o)
Looks like another slug fest there too.

[stevenash]

Jays at +130 might be the way to go.
Toronto not the best LHP team in the world, but the big boy sticks (Encarn, Joey Bats) maul Doubront, who is trash.
Sox haven't hit Happ much, and ever since letting Ellsbury walk, have been weak ass at the top of the order.

+130 on a flip is what I always seek out, could be the play (s) get back to you.

[Big Bear]

Jays at +130 might be the way to go.
Toronto not the best LHP team in the world, but the big boy sticks (Encarn, Joey Bats) maul Doubront, who is trash.
Sox haven't hit Happ much, and ever since letting Ellsbury walk, have been weak ass at the top of the order.

+130 on a flip is what I always seek out, could be the play (s) get back to you.

yeah i hear ya Doubront has been terrible this year. Only thing that scares me about Happ is he has only 3 K's and 7 walks on the road.

[stevenash]

Too many weapons for Dubront to fade - Jays +128 tonight

Dubront is awful, and laying -138 against this lineup, who has done this to him lifetime is very risky business.
Going Toronto to slug their way to a win behind a slightly better, but not all that great either Happ.

However, the better lineup here tonight belongs to the Jays, and like I said Happ has a slight edge on Dubront.
+128 is more that fair here.

Doubront sports a poor 4.54 ERA and a poor 1.51 WH/IP and faces this in that park.


Jose Reyes SS - 6 for 15 .400 2 doubles lifetime v. Doubront
Melky Cabrera LF -
Jose Bautista RF - 5 for 15 .333 1 HR 4 RBI lifetime v. Doubront
Edwin Encarnacion 1B - 3 for 14 but the three are home runs
Brett Lawrie 3B - 5 for 16 .313
Dioner Navarro DH -
Steve Tolleson 2B - 1 for 2, 1 was a homerun
Erik Kratz C
Kevin Pillar CF

By the time you get to Kratz, who hit a little for Philly, it might be over.

Very tough lineup for a meatball like Doubront to navigate.

Happ needs to keep Pedroia off the bases, Papi (who Happ has had success against) in the yard, he'll walk out with a 'W'

Brock Holt, David Ross, and Jackie Bradley Jr at the bottom isn't scaring anybody

Blue Jays +128 is good value.
2*

[Grits n' Gravy]

Take Boston or pass tonight.

sf/col ov

[tatddy]

sf/col ov

Pagan out Posey out I wouldn't mess with the over. Morales has been in horrid form but he's been solid against SF bats in the past.

[GT21Megatron]

Dubront is awful, and laying -138 against this lineup, who has done this to him lifetime is very risky business.
Going Toronto to slug their way to a win behind a slightly better, but not all that great either Happ.

However, the better lineup here tonight belongs to the Jays, and like I said Happ has a slight edge on Dubront.
+128 is more that fair here.

Doubront sports a poor 4.54 ERA and a poor 1.51 WH/IP and faces this in that park.


Jose Reyes SS - 6 for 15 .400 2 doubles lifetime v. Doubront
Melky Cabrera LF -
Jose Bautista RF - 5 for 15 .333 1 HR 4 RBI lifetime v. Doubront
Edwin Encarnacion 1B - 3 for 14 but the three are home runs
Brett Lawrie 3B - 5 for 16 .313
Dioner Navarro DH -
Steve Tolleson 2B - 1 for 2, 1 was a homerun
Erik Kratz C
Kevin Pillar CF

By the time you get to Kratz, who hit a little for Philly, it might be over.

Very tough lineup for a meatball like Doubront to navigate.

Happ needs to keep Pedroia off the bases, Papi (who Happ has had success against) in the yard, he'll walk out with a 'W'

Brock Holt, David Ross, and Jackie Bradley Jr at the bottom isn't scaring anybody

Blue Jays +128 is good value.
2*

ballsy with the Sox coming off getting swept by Detroit

[GT21Megatron]

Pagan out Posey out I wouldn't mess with the over. Morales has been in horrid form but he's been solid against SF bats in the past.

I'm all over Rockies Reds and Mariners

[Grits n' Gravy]

Pagan out Posey out I wouldn't mess with the over. Morales has been in horrid form but he's been solid against SF bats in the past.

thanks. my hunch still likes it though. good luck tonight.

[stevenash]

thanks. my hunch still likes it though. good luck tonight.

Gints have weapon with Pence, Panda, and Morse.
Rox hit Bummy, they don't fear him, stay with your pick.

[iloseagain]

really like toronto tonight.. im a sox fan.. doubront sucks and they suck.. happ sucks too, but toronto should outscore the sox in a high scoring game.. bunch of righty power hitters on toronto

i was on the same page as you nash.. games not over as we know the blue jays pen is horrid.. but +130 on the jays vs doubront is too juicy to pass up

[Checkerboard]

Pagan out Posey out I wouldn't mess with the over. Morales has been in horrid form but he's been solid against SF bats in the past.

went with the u here thanks tatddy

[Grits n' Gravy]

Nice call on jays. Just saw how Rockies game ended. A few inches from a push.

[iloseagain]

Nice call on jays. Just saw how Rockies game ended. A few inches from a push.

Push on what? There wasnt a bet on the rockies game in this thread that i saw..

[Big Bear]

Pagan out Posey out I wouldn't mess with the over. Morales has been in horrid form but he's been solid against SF bats in the past.

nice call on the under. Won that shit by a matter of inches !

[Big Bear]

Gotta tip your cap to Morales for planting a 93mph fastball in Bumgarner knee cap.

He will think twice before throwing at Tulo again.

[brandcorytoby]

What is your record on posted plays?

[Big Bear]

What is your record on posted plays?

he picks winners thats all you need to know.

[stevenash]

What is your record on posted plays?

Gun to head, about five or six over .500 give or take.

Here's the thing, I don't bet anything with a big minus sign in front of it.
Minus signs are never your friend unless you are using two of them in a money line parlay, then, and only then can me an Mr - sign can coexist

I can show you how to turn a profit without even being .500, even though my record is about 53 or so percent, most of my winners, about 75 percent of them are winning dogs.

Any hamburger can pick -185 faves, picking -185 faves will kill your 'roll in the end.

It's not about the record on posted plays, it's all about the profit above zero.

For every two -150 plays that go bad, you need to hit three -150 plays just to break even.
That's 60 percent, can you go 60 percent? Just to break even?

I have hit a +190 doggy, a couple of short +130's give or take, and an over this week so far.
I can lose 5 in a row (dogs) and still show a tiny margin.

Not my intention to preach at ya, just making a point.

The bottom line is the bottom line

[TakingVegasMoney]

Gun to head, about five or six over .500 give or take.

Here's the thing, I don't bet anything with a big minus sign in front of it.
Minus signs are never your friend unless you are using two of them in a money line parlay, then, and only then can me an Mr - sign can coexist

I can show you how to turn a profit without even being .500, even though my record is about 53 or so percent, most of my winners, about 75 percent of them are winning dogs.

Any hamburger can pick -185 faves, picking -185 faves will kill your 'roll in the end.

It's not about the record on posted plays, it's all about the profit above zero.

For every two -150 plays that go bad, you need to hit three -150 plays just to break even.
That's 60 percent, can you go 60 percent? Just to break even?

I have hit a +190 doggy, a couple of short +130's give or take, and an over this week so far.
I can lose 5 in a row (dogs) and still show a tiny margin.

Not my intention to preach at ya, just making a point.

The bottom line is the bottom line

Nice post nasher

[lovetobet]

Gotta tip your cap to Morales for planting a 93mph fastball in Bumgarner knee cap.

He will think twice before throwing at Tulo again.

Did you watch the game, I'm thinking you didn't.

First off you're tipping your cap to the wrong pitcher; Morales didn't hit MadBum, Brothers did.

Second, MadBum didn't "throw at Tulo", if he's going to throw at him he's not going to use his 'cutter' the pitch that hit Tulo, plus the circumstance and situation were all wrong, that was just a pitch that got away.

Third, you don't know MadBum very well if you think that's going to make him think twice. As evidenced by him immediately talking shit to the catcher and the entire Rockies bench, don't think he is exactly intimidated, just saying.

[stevenash]

Slug fest ends today: KC/CHW UNDER 8 runs

First and foremost, winds are blowing IN from center at 10 MPH, unlike the first two games of the series where the winds were blowing out to center at 10 MPH assisting many base hits.

I'm expecting balls to stay in the park for several reasons tonight.

1)

AL-White Sox @ Royals

Weather Update Wed, 21 May 2014 09:05:00 AM

Partly cloudy with a 30-percent chance of rain. Winds blowing in from right field at 10 m.p.h. Game-time temperature: Around 80.

Kaufman Park 6 hour forecast

4 PM 5 PM 6 PM 7 PM 8 PM 9 PM Rain 0% Rain 0% Rain 0% Rain 0% Rain 0% Rain 30%

2)
CHW Start Quintana, always liked that pitcher.
He's a strikeout artist, not like Max or Kershaw, but he's K'd 45 in 54 innings, sounds like 7.5 per nine to me.
Last season, around 8 as well.
3.67 ERA and 1.28 WH/IP are sound numbers.

3)
The middle of the KC order really struggles against Quintana
Butler/Gordon/Hosmer can't touch him, I mean look it up, hate him, horrible numbers.

Moose, who can hit him, is riding the bench tonight.
The bottom of this order is weak ass, Quintana should have his way with them.

Norichika Aoki RF
Alcides Escobar SS
Eric Hosmer 1B
Billy Butler DH
Alex Gordon LF
Lorenzo Cain CF
Danny Valencia 3B
Pedro Ciriaco 2B
Brett Hayes C

4)
KC starts Guthrie.
Guthrie has a tidy 1.24 WH/IP he's not a K specialist, he gets 'contact' outs.
However, his flyballs aren't going to leave the park tonight.

Chicago White Sox vs. Kansas City Royals (Ewing M. Kauffman Stadium)

7:10 PM CDT on May 21, 2014

Wind	3 mph South	4 mph West	5 mph West	6 mph West	7 mph NNE	7 mph NNE
Conditions	Chance of a Thunderstorm	Chance of a Thunderstorm	Chance of a Thunderstorm	Chance of a Thunderstorm	Chance of a Thunderstorm	Chance of a Thunderstorm
Temperature	85 °F	85 °F	84 °F	82 °F	81 °F	79 °F
Humidity	51 %	53 %	56 %	59 %	62 %	65 %
Chance of Rain	27 %	27 %	27 %	27 %	51 %	51 %

Game stays under 8 tonight.

I don't subscribe to the 'due' theory, there are those that do.

OK, if you want to say the two teams hitting is 'due' to slow down tonight, fine, that's not why the game goes under.

Quinatana, the winds at 8pm blowing dead in, and the weak ass KC bottom half of the order is.

You can get +105 on the under 8, good wager from where I sit.

[tatddy]

To Checker and Bear. Thanks. I didn't have a play on the game. Was just a cautionary post to Grits that I didn't really like the over. I dont touch totals in that park. Game played out pretty much like I thought except for the last inning. Was an inch away from ending on 7 with that Crawford missed catch and an inch away from ending on 10 with the Arenado hit.

Middle if SF order was 0-12 but Posey out actually hurt sf more on the other side. H Sanchez insisted on calling sliders to Arenado even after Romo hung 3 straight. Posey would have wisely kept him on the change.

Great job yesterday Nash and good luck today.

[meader99]

Gun to head, about five or six over .500 give or take.

Here's the thing, I don't bet anything with a big minus sign in front of it.
Minus signs are never your friend unless you are using two of them in a money line parlay, then, and only then can me an Mr - sign can coexist

I can show you how to turn a profit without even being .500, even though my record is about 53 or so percent, most of my winners, about 75 percent of them are winning dogs.

Any hamburger can pick -185 faves, picking -185 faves will kill your 'roll in the end.

It's not about the record on posted plays, it's all about the profit above zero.

For every two -150 plays that go bad, you need to hit three -150 plays just to break even.
That's 60 percent, can you go 60 percent? Just to break even?

I have hit a +190 doggy, a couple of short +130's give or take, and an over this week so far.
I can lose 5 in a row (dogs) and still show a tiny margin.

Not my intention to preach at ya, just making a point.

The bottom line is the bottom line

And that's the bottom line......cause Steve Nash says so..... <enter 1 finger salute here>

[iloseagain]

great pick on the under chw

[JonEJet]

BOOM!!! Winner

[stevenash]

Mets / Dodgers UNDER 6.5 +105

I know, I know, unders are a painful wager.
6.5 unders are even more torturous.

1) Game is in Citi Field which is a graveyard.
It's tough enough to hit one out when it's 85 and sunny, but the wind is blowing in at 10 mph, and it's raw in NYC and drizzle rain.

2) Mets start Niese, who has only given up three homers all season, none in the last month, and not one at all in Citi at home, has been sharp pretty much all season. Niese has been underrated very good so far this year.

3) Dodgers start their 'B' lineup tonight, Figgins on top (no Gordon) Either on the bench, Crawford on the bench, bottom of the order is Van Slyke, Justin Turner, AJ Ellis, and Greinke.
No Dodger is going deep tonight, Puig and Han-Ram or A-Gon may scratch out a run or two, but not by going long.

4) Dodgers start Greinke, a bona fide ace on any staff that does not have Kershaw.
61 K's, 54 IP (do the math) against a team amongst the league leaders that strikes out the most.
Only person who can possibly hurt Greinke is Wright, ain't gonna happen tonight.

This game, after breaking down all factors is a classic 'under' bet.
Wind blowing in, not great conditions, two very, very solid starters, 'B' lineups.....

Skip it if you can't stand under 6.5's, or you can't deal with 3 hours of "Come on you shit head, get this third out"

I like this play, but, like I said, not for everyone.

Under 6.5 2* at +105

Crappy weather, 'B

[Pauulzcappin]

good luck tonight nasher. looking at white sox tt over against phelps and an overused yanks bullpen.

[CapmeSpartan]

Hardest part about tailing today is the single fact that yisman has this game hitting the over Nash

[stevenash]

Hardest part about tailing today is the single fact that yisman has this game hitting the over Nash

Well I'm sure he has his reasons for betting over.
If everyone agreed on the same side, all the time, that would not be a good thing.

Only way this game sees seven runs, my opinion, and mine alone is on 10 singles or 7 singles and a couple of doubles.