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Brewers -115 overnight line over Pittsburgh
Had to take a couple of days off, I got so pissed off at myself for loving Darvish all day Saturday, only to talk myself off of Darvish and go with Jose Ferenandez instead.
I am the king of that, talking myself out of winners to select a loser at the last second.
Darvish pitches a one hit masterpiece, falling one out shy of a no hitter, and Fernandez pukes up 6 runs in 5 innings, now he's probably lost for the year, looks like he's going to need TJ surgery.
Then, Phil fukking Hughes schools Justin Verlander, that happens once every light year, and did anybody check out the Royal game over the weekend, they get 16 hits, all singles.
Nice to see Timmy throw a gem last night, and Stanton continues to mash, and Tulo continues to rake.
Back to basics here.
I'm liking the Brews with Estrada at a very fair -115 price tag over Gerrit Cole.
Pretty much a man to man pick 'em and I'm getting the home team plus the slightly better starter (numbers wise this season, even though Estrada's past three starts have been mediocre pitching to a 4.57 ERA but he's a K and inning guy, and his numbers for the year remain very sound. 1.06 WH/IP says he's not allowing base runners, and I am OK with his 3.53 ERA.
Cole is 3.63 ERA, and his WH/IP is OK at 1.26, but depending on how long these two go in the game, that's a 1.5 more base runners a game, pushing two.
The last time we saw Cole, he was dancing with Carlos Gomez at third base.
Something about a fly ball to center that Gomez hit and admired, that Cole took exception to.
One's a hot head, well they are both hot heads, except the other is a hot head and a nut job.
I listen to Gomez speak, and he actually comes across intelligent, I really don't know what his problem is.
Curious as to see if Cole comes in high and tight, how will Milwaukee respond, these two teams never really like each other to begin with.
I might be wrong, but I think Cole gets scrutinized tonight.
OK, that is not why I am backing the Brews, this is.
Brewers are are 6 and 1 against Pittsbugh this year, Estrada is undefeated in his career versus the Pirates 5-0 with 2.22 ERA in nine starts.
Pedro Alvarez can't hit Estrada, he's 3 for 18 and struck out 8 times.
Andrew McCutchen even though in the lineup has a real bad foot.
So who hits Estrada? Well, Russell Martin, but he's DL'ed, and McCutchen who has two homers off of Estrada, but is 7 for 28.
With Martin Pitt is .215 (32 for 140) without him, it's barely .200.
Who hits Cole?
Start with Carlos Gomez, 5 for 11 .455
Scooter Gennett is .444
Segura is 5 for 12 and Braun is eligible to come off the DL too.
Milwaukee loses A-Ram, but he hasn't hit Cole much in the past.
Brewers have 79 at bats, more if you include the walks, that's enough of a sample size, they hit .305 off of Cole, now take out Rickie Weeks, who doesn't play much anymore and Caleb Gindl, and Jeff Bianchi, that .305 has to climb over .320
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great write up, GL!Comment -
Welcome back Nashe! As always, much tks for the game analysis.Comment -
Welcome back Nash nice to see you back...how many units is this play?Comment -
welcome back and good luck!Comment -
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Welcome back! Tailing this play.
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Yep,
Brewers own Pittsburgh
and
I see nothing changing this fact tonight......Comment -
was the game rain delayedComment -
nope 5-2 top of the 9th
2 outs to go until we can officially cash it!Comment -
Brilliant return NashyComment -
Nash is back and focused! Thanks for the winner.
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Bravo, give the pups a treat on me
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I'm not saying to fade Tanaka, but......
This Santana the Mets are trotting out tonight is a good one.
The PCL numbers, the 3.05 ERA last year, don't let that fool you, the PCL for the most part is played in places like Salt Lake City, and the desert of New Mexico, and Las Vegas, where balls fly out like superballs. That league has no mercy on pitchers, to pitch to a 3.05 ERA, in that air, in that league, with those big bats, is very impressive. Teams pitch to 5 ERA's in the PCL, not to mention he's been a K an inning guy at every level, what is also impressive are the 90 and 86 ratings.
Yanks have been trash all week, if it was anybody else but Tanaka I'd be on NYM tonight, I just might.
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I think the books are expecting him to be great. Not sure I've seen a 6.5 being juiced on the under at Yankee Stadium in recent memory, especially given this kid is making his debut. That's a crazy low number for a rookie in his first start ever.This Santana the Mets are trotting out tonight is a good one.
The PCL numbers, the 3.05 ERA last year, don't let that fool you, the PCL for the most part is played in places like Salt Lake City, and the desert of New Mexico, and Las Vegas, where balls fly out like superballs. That league has no mercy on pitchers, to pitch to a 3.05 ERA, in that air, in that league, with those big bats, is very impressive. Teams pitch to 5 ERA's in the PCL, not to mention he's been a K an inning guy at every level, what is also impressive are the 90 and 86 ratings.
Yanks have been trash all week, if it was anybody else but Tanaka I'd be on NYM tonight, I just might.
http://www.milb.com/milb/stats/stats...d=112&sid=l112Comment -
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I know, but the guy has a 90 effiency rating with a 1:1 K/IP ratio.
Yikes, match that up with Tanaka, you can't bet the total, at all, over or under.Comment -
Steve, Im confused with your write up. Are you saying we like the Mets or Yankees ?Comment -
Steve do we pound Scooter Feldman tonightComment -
What you think about Sonny Gray at Cleveland on Friday?
We should be able to get a decent price on Sunny maybe -135ish?Comment -
Chase Whitley and Jacob Degrom - the play is NYY -116 because of the 'pen
Both are low draft picks originally
Mets rookie Degrom was having a solid season so far in that PCL league (AAA) in Las Vegas, where the balls fly like golf balls in rarified air.
Undefeated after 7 starts, 4-0, but, only averages 5.5 innings per start.
Has control issues, walks about 3 per 9. Throws right, 1.40 AAA WH/IP, don't like the number. Not a big K guy either.
Chase Whitley is the Yank starter making his prime time debut.
On paper, I like what I see, better and more polished than Degrom, but pitches in a normal park (Scranton-AAA)
Better WH/IP at AAA, much better at 1.12, better ERA, almost a K an inning guy, matter of fact this season was 11K's per nine innings in 6 starts. Those are Nolan Ryan K numbers.
But, like Degrom, he's a five and fly guy too, only averages 5.5 innings a start also.
Even the novice handicapper knows where to go next.
The 'pen, well duh.
a) Yanks have better bullpen.
b) Yanks whole 'pen is avaiable, Tanaka went all nine innings yesterday, NYY 'pen did not even get up, well just to pee, they are good to go.
c) Valverde (Mets) went 2 IP's probably has to sit this one out tonight.
This is how the game goes (as I see it)
Yanks get to the Mets kid early for 3 or 4 runs.
Mets get a singleton off of Whitley.
I'll be around 4-1 Yanks mid-way though, Yanks 'pen shuts down Murph and Wright, Yanks bats exploit Mets pen late, and put this game to bed by the seventh inning stretch.
Yanks -116, not big, but Yanks get this oneComment -
good luckComment -
i'm watching the game and this mets' kid is very lucky. this should be a 2-0 easily.Comment -
Notice that both Whitley and deGrom got hits in their first MLB ABs?
Wonder if that ever happened before, two SPs making their MLB debuts in the same game and each get a hit first time the plate.
Just when you think you've seen everything in baseball...
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Dellin Betances was the difference last night. Wow that kid is impressive, bright future with the YanksComment -
No time for long write up: Mets +154 Wheeler over Zimmerman
Game goes in 35 mins. no time for a sermon now, in a nut shell...........
Met's core Murph and Wright hit Zimmy, Wheeler has the stuff to shut down a not really scary Nat lineup.
+154 is very generous, I am taking the bait.
Mets +154 2 will get you 3, I like it.Comment -
Over in mets/natsComment
