Nash's 2014 All things MLB Talking Baseball Thread

[PAULYPOKER]

Too bad I missed your play though.........

[KawadaKicks17]

Haha nice call. I'm on Dodgers RL, so that's going pretty well.

[stevenash]

Haha nice call. I'm on Dodgers RL, so that's going pretty well.

What you get? Like +105 or so?

Could have been worse, could have laid the -170 or what ever the closer was.

Are you starting to see why betting two faves in bases reduces the house advantage.
If you bet LAD s/up you would have lost 170 or whatever the closer was to win 100.
If you bet LAD in a 1* parlay, with anything, the parlay goes down the toilet, but you lose the hundy, not the 170
Yes, it's still a loss, but 100, not 170.
Hey, I am not an advocate of any wager that depends on multiple outcomes to collect one payout, but unlike foots and hoops, where the spread is 11-10, there are advantages in baseball because like I said, the vig in baseball is built into the m/l, not the 11-10.

[justin81]

Great insights stevenash. Never been to , watched or understood baseball game, but reading your opinions makes it exciting.

[stevenash]

Great insights stevenash. Never been to , watched or understood baseball game, but reading your opinions makes it exciting.

Thank you for that, I have develeoped a handicapping style over the years that places a premium on OBA's, and past perforamces.
There is a certain amout of truth to two age old adages, first one being, history does tend to repeat itself, if a hitter has a history of constantly smacking a certain pitcher around, there is no reason to believe it will stop the next game. Same with pitchers owning certain lineups.

If you played baseball, starting at the age of 8 the coach would say "a walk is as good a hit"
It's true, the object is to get on base, you can not score if you don't get on base. It's really that simple, two walks to first base is the same as two singles to first base. OBA (on base percentage) is in my opinion the most important stat, so I start from there. The more a batter or team gets on base, the better chance he or they has of scoring.

[KawadaKicks17]

What you get? Like +105 or so?

It was +130. The ML was -185 where I got it and -181 on pinny when I bet it right before first pitch.

[stevenash]

It was +130. The ML was -185 where I got it and -181 on pinny when I bet it right before first pitch.

How long you been betting bases?

[KawadaKicks17]

How long you been betting bases?

3 years but last year was the first I tracked it all season and I won 6 units. Not really great but better than losing. I bet a little less than 1 game per day and took about a month of the season off. Majority of my plays were 1u.

[stevenash]

OK

Try to stay away from using home teams on run lines.

a) 95 times out of 100 you are screwed if you are tied In the bottom of the ninth, unless your walk off is a multiple run bomb, in other words if it's 3-3 and the bases are loaded, and say Kemp hits a rocket off the wall, only the first run counts.

b) I have seen countless of run lines get screwed like this too, home team winning 5-3, top ninth, two outs, visiting team has man on first, home team not even holding runner on, allows runner to 'steal' second, actually called catchers indifference,because there's no reason to hold the runner on, batter singles, run scores making game 5-4, next batter makes out, game over. Wager screwed.

When to bet a run line?
When you want to bet a Kershaw type pitcher on the road to adjust a - money line to a + run line. If you have a run line bet and you have a tie game through eight innings, your team can go nuts in the ninth and score as many as they want,where as like I said, the first run only counts in the ninth if the home team wins on a walk off, unless the aforementioned walk off is a two or more run home run. (Unlikely)

[Julian9]

eying any plays today Nash?

[stevenash]

eying any plays today Nash?

Yeah, a couple that just went off, I just got back from the lake running my dogs and didn't get a chance to post them.

I got a few later I am looking at, want to see lineups first.

[KawadaKicks17]

OK

Try to stay away from using home teams on run lines.

a) 95 times out of 100 you are screwed if you are tied In the bottom of the ninth, unless your walk off is a multiple run bomb, in other words if it's 3-3 and the bases are loaded, and say Kemp hits a rocket off the wall, only the first run counts.

b) I have seen countless of run lines get screwed like this too, home team winning 5-3, top ninth, two outs, visiting team has man on first, home team not even holding runner on, allows runner to 'steal' second, actually called catchers indifference,because there's no reason to hold the runner on, batter singles, run scores making game 5-4, next batter makes out, game over. Wager screwed.

When to bet a run line?
When you want to bet a Kershaw type pitcher on the road to adjust a - money line to a + run line. If you have a run line bet and you have a tie game through eight innings, your team can go nuts in the ninth and score as many as they want,where as like I said, the first run only counts in the ninth if the home team wins on a walk off, unless the aforementioned walk off is a two or more run home run. (Unlikely)

Perhaps I made myself sound like way more of a newbie than I am...I do know all of this. But the being at home factor is also factored into the RL price.

That game though the line made no sense at all to me and seemed like a trap so I trapepd myself. But there was reason to believe LA might get to Vogelsong and it's never hard to assume SF could end with a low run total and the game ends 6-2 or 7-2 LA. Looking back I don't hate my wager whatsoever, it's just a loss.

[ccc111ccc]

Giant tonight

[stevenash]

But the being at home factor is also factored into the RL price.

Spot on

[stevenash]

Giant tonight

Everybody loves Bummy tonight

[PAULYPOKER]

Stevo,

when ya gonna release?

[TankHankerous]

For what it's worth, I like the Puds tonight +$$$

[stevenash]

Rox TT over 4 .5 runs

All that glitters is not gold, these things are not always automatic, however, I can not ignore these facts, the sample size is more than ample, and the Rockies have probably the most lethal lineup in the NL and that includes the Dodgers.

.905 OBA+SLG is a rarity if you look very carefully at the walk column.
Very rare, one walk in 88 official at bats and 33 hits.
10:1 K/BB ratio. Holy shit, you don't see this very often, a .375 BA against with a 10:1 K/BB ratio

Is it a lock? Nothing is. Int this case, Rox could spank the ball all game again off of McCarthy, but instead of line drive singles, the rockets become line drive outs to third base.

COLORADO ROCKIES CAREER STATISTICS VS. BRANDON MCCARTHY
BATTER	AB	H	2B	3B	HR	RBI	BB	SO	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS
Nolan Arenado	3	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	.000	.000	.000	.000
Charlie Blackmon	3	1	0	0	0	0	0	1	.333	.333	.333	.667
Michael Cuddyer	26	6	1	0	1	3	1	4	.231	.259	.385	.644
Corey Dickerson	3	2	0	0	0	0	0	0	.667	.667	.667	1.333
Carlos Gonzalez	6	2	0	0	0	2	0	2	.333	.333	.333	.667
DJ LeMahieu	3	1	0	0	0	0	0	0	.333	.333	.333	.667
Justin Morneau	18	7	1	0	0	1	0	1	.389	.389	.444	.833
Jordan Pacheco	7	5	0	0	0	1	0	0	.714	.714	.714	1.429
Wilin Rosario	9	4	1	0	1	3	0	0	.444	.444	.889	1.333
Troy Tulowitzki	9	5	1	0	1	4	0	1	.556	.556	1.000	1.556
Ryan Wheeler	1	0	0	0	0	0	0	1	.000	.000	.000	.000
Totals	88	33	4	0	3	14	1	10	.375	.382	.523	.905

Brandon McCarthy is what he is, an ordinary, barely mediocre number four starter.
Rockies demonstate right here what they do to pedestrian like, mediocre righties.

Not for nothing, Rox start De La Rosa who has been known to get lit up a few times himself, and quite frankly as long as the Rockies score five, De La Rosa could give up 25 and I really wouldn't give a two puppy farts.


Will the Rox score 5 or more, probably.

I hit with the SF Giants yesterday, 2* +154
YTD 5-2 + 8.38 *

2* over Rockies 4.5 - I can't ignore the statistics.

[stevenash]

For what it's worth, I like the Puds tonight +$$$

Cashner and the Reds lefty Cingrani are my two to watch. Those are the two best starting pitching prospects in the NL not named Jose Fernandez, and I am not sure you can call those two prospects any more.

[twoods23]

OK

Try to stay away from using home teams on run lines.

a) 95 times out of 100 you are screwed if you are tied In the bottom of the ninth, unless your walk off is a multiple run bomb, in other words if it's 3-3 and the bases are loaded, and say Kemp hits a rocket off the wall, only the first run counts.

b) I have seen countless of run lines get screwed like this too, home team winning 5-3, top ninth, two outs, visiting team has man on first, home team not even holding runner on, allows runner to 'steal' second, actually called catchers indifference,because there's no reason to hold the runner on, batter singles, run scores making game 5-4, next batter makes out, game over. Wager screwed.

When to bet a run line?
When you want to bet a Kershaw type pitcher on the road to adjust a - money line to a + run line. If you have a run line bet and you have a tie game through eight innings, your team can go nuts in the ninth and score as many as they want,where as like I said, the first run only counts in the ninth if the home team wins on a walk off, unless the aforementioned walk off is a two or more run home run. (Unlikely)

all this talk about the 9th inning. 2 biggest mlb bets of yr so far where Cinci ml - thank you 9th inning and the under 8.5 in Balt/Det - thank you fcking 9th inning

[lovetobet]

Thank you for that, I have develeoped a handicapping style over the years that places a premium on OBA's, and past perforamces.
There is a certain amout of truth to two age old adages, first one being, history does tend to repeat itself, if a hitter has a history of constantly smacking a certain pitcher around, there is no reason to believe it will stop the next game. Same with pitchers owning certain lineups.

If you played baseball, starting at the age of 8 the coach would say "a walk is as good a hit"
It's true, the object is to get on base, you can not score if you don't get on base. It's really that simple, two walks to first base is the same as two singles to first base. OBA (on base percentage) is in my opinion the most important stat, so I start from there. The more a batter or team gets on base, the better chance he or they has of scoring.

OK Billy Bean

[lovetobet]

Perhaps I made myself sound like way more of a newbie than I am...I do know all of this. But the being at home factor is also factored into the RL price.

That game though the line made no sense at all to me and seemed like a trap so I trapepd myself. But there was reason to believe LA might get to Vogelsong and it's never hard to assume SF could end with a low run total and the game ends 6-2 or 7-2 LA. Looking back I don't hate my wager whatsoever, it's just a loss.

Time to update you knowledge of the Giants, they have bats this year and WILL score RUNS especially on the road in hitter friendly parks; see Arizona and Chavez Ravine to start the year. I am a Giants fan and live in Nor Cal so watch them everyday. If they stay healthy their bats will bang this year, problem is their starting pitching is not nearly as good as either of their 2 World Championship years unless something changes dramatically but as much as I'm hoping for it, realistically can't see it happening.

Let me throw in that I ABSOLUTELY LOVE THAT THE DODGERS ARE NOT GOING TO BE AS GOOD AS EVERYONE THOUGHT OR THEIR PAYROLL SHOULD REPRESENT. Kershaw could be out till June, HAHAHA!!!! Puig is a complete head case, great talent, but feking head case. Hopefully he continues to blow up any and all chemistry in that club house. FUECK THE DODGERS!!

Sorry to hijack Nash, I know we've disagreed on one or two things in the past but I respect your opinion and your doing good work here, keep it up!!

[KawadaKicks17]

Let me throw in that I ABSOLUTELY LOVE THAT THE DODGERS ARE NOT GOING TO BE AS GOOD AS EVERYONE THOUGHT OR THEIR PAYROLL SHOULD REPRESENT.

First of all, I'll be 12k richer if anyone not named the Dodgers wins the NL West so I hope you're right.

Secondly, I'm not sure what the point of your post is as it has zero to do with mine. I said the Dodgers were capable of winning a game vs the Giants by multiple runs, something that they WILL do this season multiple times. Your post is acting as if I stated things I didn't or that I think things I don't. Your post also is as if a team that's not as good as the other team can't win. Something that's also not true. You're also acting as if you know everything, which you don't.

[stevenash]

First of all, I'll be 12k richer if anyone not named the Dodgers wins the NL West so I hope you're right.

Secondly, I'm not sure what the point of your post is as it has zero to do with mine. I said the Dodgers were capable of winning a game vs the Giants by multiple runs, something that they WILL do this season multiple times. Your post is acting as if I stated things I didn't or that I think things I don't. You're acting as if you know everything, which you also don't.

If my thread is going to get hijacked I will lock it up as pro status only.

One more time, this is MY THREAD

[2daBank]

If my thread is going to get hijacked I will lock it up as pro status only.

One more time, this is MY THREAD

Never fails, jackass morons can't get attention on their own so they invade good threads..

[lovetobet]

Time to update you knowledge of the Giants, they have bats this year and WILL score RUNS especially on the road in hitter friendly parks; see Arizona and Chavez Ravine to start the year. I am a Giants fan and live in Nor Cal so watch them everyday. If they stay healthy their bats will bang this year, problem is their starting pitching is not nearly as good as either of their 2 World Championship years unless something changes dramatically but as much as I'm hoping for it, realistically can't see it happening.

Let me throw in that I ABSOLUTELY LOVE THAT THE DODGERS ARE NOT GOING TO BE AS GOOD AS EVERYONE THOUGHT OR THEIR PAYROLL SHOULD REPRESENT. Kershaw could be out till June, HAHAHA!!!! Puig is a complete head case, great talent, but feking head case. Hopefully he continues to blow up any and all chemistry in that club house. FUECK THE DODGERS!!

Sorry to hijack Nash, I know we've disagreed on one or two things in the past but I respect your opinion and your doing good work here, keep it up!!

Read the last line Nash. I apologized and gave you props, no?

[leetreaper]

Read the last line Nash. I apologized and gave you props, no?

[lovetobet]

First of all, I'll be 12k richer if anyone not named the Dodgers wins the NL West so I hope you're right.

Secondly, I'm not sure what the point of your post is as it has zero to do with mine. I said the Dodgers were capable of winning a game vs the Giants by multiple runs, something that they WILL do this season multiple times. Your post is acting as if I stated things I didn't or that I think things I don't. Your post also is as if a team that's not as good as the other team can't win. Something that's also not true. You're also acting as if you know everything, which you don't.

Last time I respond in respect of Nash's thread.

This single line you took from my post wasn't even directed toward you, my hatred of the Dodgers got the best of me. The first couple of lines of my post directed toward the 6-2 or 7-2 run total (ie Giants scoring only 2 in Chavez) is where I was questioning your knowledge of Giants bats. Anyway was more throwing out for discussion not flaming you but you seem to get your pantys in a bunch about everything as evidenced with earlier exchanges with Nash.

I'm out of your thread Nash, sorry to impose.

[leetreaper]

Last time I respond in respect of Nash's thread.

This single line you took from my post wasn't even directed toward you, my hatred of the Dodgers got the best of me. The first couple of lines of my post directed toward the 6-2 or 7-2 run total (ie Giants scoring only 2 in Chavez) is where I was questioning your knowledge of Giants bats. Anyway was more throwing out for discussion not flaming you but you seem to get your pantys in a bunch about everything as evidenced with earlier exchanges with Nash.

I'm out of your thread Nash, sorry to impose.

What kind of loser r u? You apologized twice in your last 2 posts...??? 'Nough said...

[stevenash]

Last time I respond in respect of Nash's thread.

This single line you took from my post wasn't even directed toward you, my hatred of the Dodgers got the best of me. The first couple of lines of my post directed toward the 6-2 or 7-2 run total (ie Giants scoring only 2 in Chavez) is where I was questioning your knowledge of Giants bats. Anyway was more throwing out for discussion not flaming you but you seem to get your pantys in a bunch about everything as evidenced with earlier exchanges with Nash.

I'm out of your thread Nash, sorry to impose.

1)Apologies for missing your last sentence.
2)That post wasn't directed at you
3)Feel free to drop by anytime.

[lovetobet]

1)Apologies for missing your last sentence.
2)That post wasn't directed at you
3)Feel free to drop by anytime.

Cool thanks man. Like I said I like what your doing here good knowledge, keep it up.

[lovetobet]

What kind of loser r u? You apologized twice in your last 2 posts...??? 'Nough said...

Was I talking to you DouchBag, go Fueck yourself. I apologized to the OP for hijacking when he's asked people not to, it's called showing some respect in someone else's thread. As for you maybe you need to get your Boyfriends balls out of your face so you can read, go sit and spin Beetch.

[leetreaper]

Was I talking to you DouchBag, go Fueck yourself. I apologized to the OP for hijacking when he's asked people not to, it's called showing some respect in someone else's thread. As for you maybe you need to get your Boyfriends balls out of your face so you can read, go sit and spin Beetch.

[JonEJet]

McCarthy rolling

[JonEJet]

McCarthy rolling

Not anymore....lol