10% Chance We Go To War With Russia

[Mitchell88]

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=kaFygeknae8&feature=kp

discussion over

[ByeShea]

russia cannot afford war that's the funniest shit I've read today

Monday's news: Russian central bank raising rates, ruble hits all-time lows, and Russian stock market off 10% and counting.

And the fighting hasn't even started yet.

[Mitchell88]

Russia saying that it wants Ukraine army out of the bases on Crimera today no later. Later we will see what ensues.

[Big Bear]

if we go to war with anyone it will be mexico

[ByeShea]

if we go to war with anyone it will be mexico

That would be fukkin tragic.

I can see jj on the front lines getting splattered with jalapeno paint. There goes my hero, he gave all for country, he gave all for Shari.

[Mitchell88]

we are already at war with Mexico open your eyes

[Russian Rocket]

Monday's news: Russian central bank raising rates, ruble hits all-time lows, and Russian stock market off 10% and counting.

And the fighting hasn't even started yet.

this is a standard flow of things when a country is on a brink of a war with a neighboring country
go look at some historic market reactions to any of the wars that US has been involved to

[Mitchell88]

this is a standard flow of things when a country is on a brink of a war with a neighboring country
go look at some historic market reactions to any of the wars that US was involved to

rocket is right anytime that a country is in the situation with a neighboring or any country the currency moves

[Russian Rocket]

Kerry is such a puppet I guess it's easy to forget things like US invading Iraq over fake intel on weapons of mass distraction

"You just don’t invade another country on phony pretext in order to assert your interests,” John Kerry said during an interview with NBC’s Meet the Press. “This is an act of aggression that is completely trumped up in terms of its pretext. It’s really 19th century behaviour in the 21st century.”
“There could be certainly disruption of any of the normal trade routine, there could be business drawback on investment in the country,” he continued. “There could even be ultimately asset freezes, **** bans.”

[ByeShea]

this is a standard flow of things when a country is on a brink of a war with a neighboring country
go look at some historic market reactions to any of the wars that US has been involved to

When the US goes to war the stock market rallies - it doesn't tank. Bad sign, bro. Russia now off 12% and counting.

[Russian Rocket]

When the US goes to war the stock market rallies - it doesn't tank. Bad sign, bro. Russia now off 12% and counting.

you obviously know very little about stock markets so I'm not gonna argue with you

here is just one example:
before the Korean War, which started in 1950. When it became clear that the West would have to go to the aid of South Korea to defend it from communist troops in the north, share prices fell in the US by 13 per cent

most of the times when the war is in your own backyard, market has nowhere to go but down
a big selloff usually follows by a big rally when things become clear on what the countries involved are planning to do in terms of use of force

Here is the record across the last 100 years, the chart below shows closing values of the Dow Jones Industrial Average in New York for the ten working days before and after eight war onsets (the value on the day itself is omitted).

• September 11, 2001: Al-Qaeda attacks American cities
• August 2, 1990: Iraq invades Kuwait
• August 7, 1964: Gulf of Tonkin Resolution
• June 25, 1950: North Korea invades South Korea
• December 7, 1941: Japan attacks Pearl Harbor
• September 1, 1939: Germany invades Poland
• March 1, 1917: The Zimmermann telegram published
• June 25, 1914: Russia mobilizes against Germany

Only two of these events saw stock prices climb, and then only slightly. In five cases they fell, and in two the stock market was closed (for more than four months after the outbreak of World War I in Europe, and for four days after 9/11).

[Mitchell88]

we should join up and go to war with costa rica

[ByeShea]

you obviously know very little about stock markets so I'm not gonna argue with you

You're right. Worked as a clerk on the New York Stock Exchange, then 15 years trading equity institutionally - what the fuk would I know about a stock market?

That's why I got into marketing hedge funds. I'll let clients sweat volatility while I dik around on sites like SBR.

And I'll leave stock market expertise to you, pal. Besides the Russian stock market just lost 11% in a single trading session - why would that bother a Russian peasant anyway?

[jjgold]

Shea impressive resume

You never know who does what here

Market is rigged in USA

It's a Shame

[Deuce]

Russia lost 55 billion overnight in stock.

World loses, next major war is nuclear.

[ByeShea]

Only two of these events saw stock prices climb, and then only slightly. In five cases they fell, and in two the stock market was closed (for more than four months after the outbreak of World War I in Europe, and for four days after 9/11).

WTF kind of chart was that?

A sound stock market is cyclical in nature and war news will disrupt and shift the cycle, thus creating short term winners and losers that will cancel each other out in an index. In the US, once it's clear in the weeks and months after war news that there won't be foreign tanks in the streets and that the military-industrial complex is in synch, we see rallies.

What we don't tend to see (ever in US history, I believe) is the markets crash on Day 1 of an event of war.

That might be the downside of a free market being led by autocrat - Putin might have the power to nationalize a company that doesn't jump when he tells it to, but he can't stop people bailing on investments.

[Big Bear]

That would be fukkin tragic.

I can see jj on the front lines getting splattered with jalapeno paint. There goes my hero, he gave all for country, he gave all for Shari.

we should take over that country foreal and just make a bigger USA the mexican already want to live here so lets welcome them with open arms and take advantage of that prime real estate they have

[Smoke]

[ByeShea]

Shea impressive resume

You never know who does what here

Market is rigged in USA

It's a Shame

I wouldn't say it's rigged as much as I'd say it's a highly uneven playing field; and the main reason a mom n' pop investor is so set up to get smoked is because the mom n' pop investor does not matter any more than a $2 show bettor at a track.

[broadway6]

we should take over that country foreal and just make a bigger USA the mexican already want to live here so lets welcome them with open arms and take advantage of that prime real estate they have

Yes we need more debt and poverty.

Also, who will cut my grass?

[Russian Rocket]

WTF kind of chart was that?

if you can't fukking understand a chart that I posted in my previous msg, don't bother to post anything else about your "knowledge" of stock markets here

I'm laughing my ass off from your comedy show

[manny24]

Yes we need more debt and poverty.

Also, who will cut my grass?

Broader war or no war got you covered mayne

[jjgold]

The only people winning in the stock market are those high-speed traders with high-tech servers and high-tech equipment

There are select few That get information earlier than the rest

Speed is everything in the stock market

90% of investors do not have the resources to be a winner in the stock market

Of course long term anybody can show profit

[Russian Rocket]

What we don't tend to see (ever in US history, I believe) is the markets crash on Day 1 of an event of war.

I hope you do realize that there is no war in Ukraine right now and we might not even see a war out there
What day 1 of the war are you referring to right now? Do some fukking reading about situation in Ukraine before you post something stupid like this.

You said that US markets rallies before US goes to war and I gave you an example of what happened before the Korean War, when US markets plunged over 13%

I also showed you a chart of happened to the stock markets every time we had a major war on our hands during the past 100 years.

Instead of looking at the cold facts, you reserved to a little story about your 15 years of experience on wall street.

...and I gotta tell ya, that's a wonderful story, bro and I'm very happy for ya

[manny24]

Shea seems pretty sharp but i have been fooled before

could be just barreled in and broke wearing greasy sweatpants with rooster holes for all i know

[ByeShea]

I hope you do realize that there is no war in Ukraine right now and we might not even see a war out there
What day 1 of the war are you referring to right now? Do some fukking reading about situation in Ukraine before you post something stupid like this.

You said that US markets rallies before US goes to war and I gave you an example of what happened before the Korean War, when US markets plunged over 13%

I also showed you a chart of happened to the stock markets every time we had a major war on our hands during the past 100 years.

Instead of looking at the cold facts, you reserved to a little story about your 15 years of experience on wall street.

...and I gotta tell ya, that's a wonderful story, bro and I'm very happy for ya

Thanks Gordon Gekko.

Can you draw up another chart with your crayon? I have trouble with big words.

[Russian Rocket]

Thanks Gordon Gekko.

Can you draw up another chart with your crayon? I have trouble with big words.

that's all you got? that chart just so u know was posted by WSJ - nowadays kids in high school can read stuff like that

[Smoke]

Thanks Gordon Gekko.

Can you draw up another chart with your crayon? I have trouble with big words.

[ByeShea]

that's all you got? that chart just so u know was posted by WSJ - nowadays kids in high school can read stuff like that

Well, I don't know where that link is but I hope WSJ attributed the graph (with its 'days before / days after' plotted along the axis - heavy stuff, Rocket) to the British professor Mark Harrison who created it for his book "Capitalism at War".

Google Image search, gentlemen.

Also - I wrote "When the US goes to war the stock market rallies" - you responded with a cartoon graph charting US market reaction to foreign aggression.

You're misguided from the outset. And angry or something.

[Russian Rocket]

Well, I don't know where that link is but I hope WSJ attributed the graph (with its 'days before / days after' plotted along the axis - heavy stuff, Rocket) to the British professor Mark Harrison who created it for his book "Capitalism at War".

Google Image search, gentlemen.

Also - I wrote "When the US goes to war the stock market rallies" - you responded with a cartoon graph charting US market reaction to foreign aggression.

You're misguided from the outset. And angry or something.

angry? why would I be angry at your stupidity?

here are your own words: "What we don't tend to see (ever in US history, I believe) is the markets crash on Day 1 of an event of war"

Now, why don't you tell us why you think today is the day 1 in RUS vs UKR war? Do you even know what's happening out there? Any idea at all?

You're throwing here some lame stories about market, without actually knowing of what's going on in that region.
So, do you really think that something like this would make me angry? Anyone, who has a half a clue about a current situation in Ukraine is laughing at you right now.

[manny24]

either of you guys know current NHL war policy?

Ish goes down they WILL finish the regular season at least right?!?!?!?

[ByeShea]

angry? why would I be angry at your stupidity?

here are your own words: "What we don't tend to see (ever in US history, I believe) is the markets crash on Day 1 of an event of war"

Now, why don't you tell us why you think today is the day 1 in RUS vs UKR war? Do you even know what's happening out there? Any idea at all?

You're throwing here some lame stories about market, without actually knowing of what's going on in that region.
So, do you really think that something like this would make me angry? Anyone, who has a half a clue about a current situation in Ukraine is laughing at you right now.

Rocket - what I've said stands on its own merit.

All of it.

You bring insults and new arguments to things I don't even address - must be because I don't echo your Russia Superpower Ya!, USA Superpower Nyet! mindset.

So ... how about a link to the Wall Street Journal posting your cartoon graph that tiny bits of market average across 100 years of trading?

Because I found it HERE: http://theconversation.com/history-s...business-17611 and HERE: http://qz.com/119782/an-intervention...-is-any-guide/

But neither sources the WSJ.

Is there a special internet that only you can see, Rocket?

[Russian Rocket]

Rocket - what I've said stands on its own merit.

All of it.

You bring insults and new arguments to things I don't even address - must be because I don't echo your Russia Superpower Ya!, USA Superpower Nyet! mindset.

So ... how about a link to the Wall Street Journal posting your cartoon graph that tiny bits of market average across 100 years of trading?

Because I found it HERE: http://theconversation.com/history-s...business-17611 and HERE: http://qz.com/119782/an-intervention...-is-any-guide/

But neither sources the WSJ.

Is there a special internet that only you can see, Rocket?

Why is the source of the image is now an issue? What you need to look in the graph is the data, which is correct btw, and not the graphics of the graph itself - this just a bit immature, don't you think?
I haven't saved the link for the article where I got this image from and if it's not WSJ so be it.

You say: "You bring insults and new arguments to things I don't even addressed - probably because I don't echo your Russia Superpower Ya!, USA Superpower Nyet! mindset. This makes me - and most the world - stupid."

guess what...I lived in US for over 20 years and I love States as much as my home country and I don't think that Russia is superior than US.

you said: "When the US goes to war the stock market rallies - it doesn't tank. Bad sign, bro. Russia now off 12% and counting"

First of all Russia is not at war right now, so I'm not even sure why you would bring up something like that...second of all I gave you a great example of Korean war and a 13% haircut in stock prices...Correct me if I'm wrong, but I think US was involved in it?
Can you also tell me what happened to the market when the Gulf war started?

We can go back and forth on this for days, but the bottom line is you have no clue about a current situation in Ukraine, so how the hell can you draw a conclusion between today's market movement in Russia and current situation in Crimea peninsula?

[King Mayan]

Russian, byeshea thinks russia is at war because Rush Limbaugh said so..

[jjgold]

Good clean battle with Rocket and Shea

Tough to say who won

Rocket call me