Unranked Texas Longhorns favored over 22nd ranked Kansas State

[LT Profits]

Not really that big of a deal though because Kansas State is probably overrated, going 14-4 vs. a schedule ranked 115th in SOS according to Pomeroy, which has Kansas State ranked 40th overall. Texas has an identical 14-4 record against a stronger SOS (43rd) and is ranked 44th on Pomeroy. Both teams grade out well defensively, but Kansas State is ranked 146th in offensive efficiency. Texas offense isn't great either, but at least it has a pulse ranking 73rd in efficiency. With not much separating these teams on their Pomeroy profiles other that the offensive efficiencies I just mentioned, give me the team with the stronger SOS playing at home. Texas -5.5

[SamDiamond]

Come on LT-- you've been around long enough to know the AP and Coaches Poll mean absolutely dick.

You would be better off using a poll from the retards here than some goofy AP writers who watch 9 games a season.

[sportsguy04]

Texas playing a team that plays good d. To many points to lay.

[Rangers901]

Over the years, an unranked home favourite over a ranked opponent has been a great wager. I don't know the exact numbers, but I can guarantee it's been profitable.

[LT Profits]

Come on LT-- you've been around long enough to know the AP and Coaches Poll mean absolutely dick.

You would be better off using a poll from the retards here than some goofy AP writers who watch 9 games a season.

Yep, agree totally. That's why Pomeroy Rules!

[UBNVS]

K state underrated. Can't go off their blowout loss to a top 5 Kansas team. Give me little apple and the points

[ChalkyDog]

Really like the writeup. Hits all the major points I look at.

Kenpom has been worth the money the past few weeks, finally.

[ChalkyDog]

My ratings based on player ratings have Texas anywhere between a 6.5 and 10 point favorite here.

Texas has two players better than KSU's best.

[UBNVS]

Little apple. Didn't even sweat it

[No coincidences]

Yep, agree totally. That's why Pomeroy Rules!

Pomeroy "rules"? LOL.

[LT Profits]

Pomeroy "rules"? LOL.

You know what I meant. Best ratings on the internet by a mile.

[No coincidences]

You know what I meant. Best ratings on the internet by a mile.

KenPom has brainwashed both you and Vegas. I'm not saying his work isn't a valuable tool, but it isn't the bible oddsmakers treat it as. It's hard to rely on advanced stats and the like when you're dealing with college kids. Let me ask you this, LT: were you a better capper record-wise before or after you started praying at KenPom's altar? Think about it.

[LT Profits]

KenPom has brainwashed both you and Vegas. I'm not saying his work isn't a valuable tool, but it isn't the bible oddsmakers treat it as. It's hard to rely on advanced stats and the like when you're dealing with college kids. Let me ask you this, LT: were you a better capper record-wise before or after you started praying at KenPom's altar? Think about it.

It depends on HOW you use it. If you just use their projected scores and think you are done with it, you will only hit a shade over 50% ATS and not be over .500 enough to offset the vig. But the STATS at the site are priceless and the best in the market.

[No coincidences]

It depends on HOW you use it. If you just use their projected scores and think you are done with it, you will only hit a shade over 50% ATS and not be over .500 enough to offset the vig. But the STATS at the site are priceless and the best in the market.

Agree that the stats are valuable, but it's not nearly as crisp and efficient as advanced stats from the pro game because the college product is so inconsistent and inferior these days. I've said a million times that I think Vegas makes a big mistake parroting KenPom's numbers for sides and totals. They more or less blindly and lazily tail his projections to set lines.

Let me ask you this: what was the projected score of this particular game according to Pomeroy?

[LT Profits]

Agree that the stats are valuable, but it's not nearly as crisp and efficient as advanced stats from the pro game because the college product is so inconsistent and inferior these days. I've said a million times that I think Vegas makes a big mistake parroting KenPom's numbers for sides and totals. They more or less blindly and lazily tail his projections to set lines.

Let me ask you this: what was the projected score of this particular game according to Pomeroy?

Actually they had the right side and I didn't. The projection was Texas by 3. But back to what you said about advanced stats, well you have to use SOMETHING to handicap with! More likely to find small edges with Pomeroy than with mainstream numbers.

[No coincidences]

Actually they had the right side and I didn't. The projection was Texas by 3. But back to what you said about advanced stats, well you have to use SOMETHING to handicap with! More likely to find small edges with Pomeroy than with mainstream numbers.

If you were being honest with yourself, do you feel like taking more of the human element out of an imperfect product like college basketball -- thanks to resources like KenPom -- has, in actuality, negatively affected your bottom line in this sport? Not an implication. Just a question.

[LT Profits]

If you were being honest with yourself, do you feel like taking more of the human element out of an imperfect product like college basketball -- thanks to resources like KenPom -- has, in actuality, negatively affected your bottom line in this sport? Not an implication. Just a question.

I doubt it because I've always been a numbers guy my whole life. If I can't quantify something, I usually ignore it. Even "letdown" and "look-aheads" I adjust my projections by a certain amount of points rather than just playing them blindly. I just think my downfall has been the market getting sharper.