Interesting trend/stat on this weekends Carolina/SF game

MoneyLineDawg · 01-09-14, 11:45 PM

Brock are we pounding the Panthers??

Brock Landers · 01-09-14, 11:48 PM

Just as in the first meeting between the teams in November, the 49ers are favored over the Panthers in Sunday’s NFC divisional-playoff matchup in Charlotte.
As of late Monday afternoon, most Nevada oddsmakers listed the 49ers as two-point favorites at Carolina. The Niners, who defeated Green Bay on Sunday in the wild-card round, are the only road favorite in the divisional playoffs, and they are the narrowest favorite in the four games to be played this weekend.
It is quite rare for a home team to be an underdog in the divisional round. From 1993 through 2012, home teams were favored in 77-of-80 divisional-round matchups, with one game rated a pick ‘em, according to Marc Lawrence and Jim Feist point spread archives.
Interestingly enough, the only home underdogs in this span were the 2011 49ers and 1996 Panthers. Both teams pulled upsets, with San Francisco knocking off New Orleans 36-32 as a three-point underdog on January 14, 2012 and Carolina beating three-point favorite Dallas 26-17 on January 5, 1997.
The Panthers, for what it’s worth, have a knack for exceeding expectations as underdogs in the divisional round. In addition to 1996, the Panthers won outright as underdogs in the 2003 and 2005 divisional rounds, perLawrence data.
For the record, the Panthers have only been favored once in the divisional round.
You might recall how that ended.
The Panthers, who were favored by 10 points, lost 33-13 to the visiting Cardinals in the 2008 postseason.

No coincidences · 01-10-14, 12:36 AM

A) Can you not give credit for the info you are plagiarizing?
B) WTF do results from past seasons have to do with this game? More importantly, WTF does a Carolina playoff game in '08 -- when Cam Newton was in high school -- have to do with this weekend?

slacker00 · 01-10-14, 08:07 AM

Interesting, maybe, but it's not a stat or trend. If I flipped a coin 5 times and got 4 heads, is that a stat or trend?

Big Bear · 01-10-14, 08:09 AM

Get'em Brock

jjgold · 01-10-14, 08:43 AM

5 games is a zero trend

Brock back to chalkboard

BennyBigNuts · 01-10-14, 08:43 AM

Brock doesn't even have $5 to bet.
He's resorted to reporting trends rofl.
Fukkin stain.
Just kill yourself already. Or tell us when an actual penny of yours goes on a game like always so we can fade it.

Hot Jerry · 01-10-14, 09:43 AM

I have to agree with Brock - Carolina WILL OUTRIGHT WIN !!

LT Profits · 01-10-14, 09:58 AM

There is a different dynamic here because the 49ers are actually one of the two best teams in the NFC but have the misfortune of being in the same division as the other one. In other words, the 49ers are the better team and actually deserve to be favored whereas the the four that lost in the past may have been overvalued.

Big Bear · 01-10-14, 09:59 AM

Originally posted by LT Profits

There is a different dynamic here because the 49ers are actually one of the two best teams in the NFC but have the misfortune of being in the same division as the other one. In other words, the 49ers are the better team and actually deserve to be favored whereas the the four that lost in the past may have been overvalued.

cant wait to bump this thread sunday afternoon

crustyme · 01-10-14, 10:03 AM

is this a rubberband play?

innovation · 01-10-14, 10:57 AM

Considering 2 of the divisonal round games involve #1 seeds. It is very rare that any home team would be an underdog because the other home teams usually are the better team.

The niners imo really came together at the right time and power ranking wise they are the best team in the League currently.

The other thing is to even make Niners a road fave 1 pm eastern game is telling. The chargers historically have been the best west coast team in that time slot.

Snowball · 01-10-14, 11:06 AM

49ers are the proven squad especially after that win at Green Bay.
Carolina is hot but has proven nothing yet.
Betting on Carolina feels like a homer play.

slacker00 · 01-10-14, 11:10 AM

Originally posted by Brock Landers

In NFL history, there have only been 5 home dogs in this round of the playoffs...

4 of the 5 dogs won outright

Carolina is a home dog

Hold on, Brock. Did you even read you own article? There have only been 2 home dogs ever in this round:
(1997) DAL -3.5 @ CAR
(2011) NO -3.5 @ SF.

The 2003, 2005 & 2008 CAR games were on the road. So, your 4 out of 5 isn't even correct.

Also, the current line for SF @ CAR is almost PK. Calling CAR a true home dog in this game is a stretch.

Big Bear · 01-10-14, 11:36 AM

Originally posted by Snowball

49ers are the proven squad especially after that win at Green Bay.
Carolina is hot but has proven nothing yet.
Betting on Carolina feels like a homer play.

yeah going 11-1 in the last 12 AND

not allowing the 49ers to score a TD in their own house is not proving anything...

fellas in this business you gotta stay ahead of the curve

When Cam slap 49ers backers in the mouth with his rooster on sunday it will be too late
for yall to learn.

the writing is on the wall. Fade Cam with caution.

innovation · 01-10-14, 11:41 AM

big bear make sure cam has his towel ready to sulk

Brock Landers · 01-10-14, 11:45 AM

49'ers were lucky to beat Green Bay, who has the shittiest D imaginable. Carolina has pipe hitting niqqa's on D....

Easy-Rider 66 · 01-10-14, 11:47 AM

Originally posted by Brock Landers

49'ers were lucky to beat Green Bay, who has the shittiest D imaginable. Carolina has pipe hitting niqqa's on D....

...

konck · 01-10-14, 12:03 PM

Well I was going to bet Caro and Scam Newton ....this ended that. How is your make a wish collection going Brock

Pauleypoker fuked Manning geez whats left for Deemer and Lakerboy

Big Bear · 01-10-14, 12:09 PM

Originally posted by innovation

big bear make sure cam has his towel ready to sulk

thats the old Cam.

He has come a long way since entering the league 3 years ago.

jjgold · 01-10-14, 12:52 PM

Its a tough game, does Carolina have enough weapons to win??

artyfudgepacker · 01-10-14, 01:46 PM

hard to beat a team twice .playoff exp is key here .u think ?

Parligod · 01-10-14, 02:56 PM

This whole thread is giving me a headache given the lack of logic here but let me start somewhere...

1. 4-5 games is hardly much to go off of.
2. slacker called out brock on accuracy of the "trend" and I'm too lazy to bother looking myself, but if what he says is true it basically mitigates the trend argument because: (a) he found that only 2 games in the past are remotely comparable (thus there is no trend); and (b) he distinguished the upcoming 49ers/panthers game - 49ers are hardly a true favorite given game is virtual/actual pickem.
3. You CANNOT look at stats in a vacuum. Even if we agree there's a historic trend would you bet heavily if the Panthers team consisted of 9-year-old kids in wheelchairs? Probably not, because CONTEXT matters and who plays the game matters.
4. The reality is that either one of these teams is capable of winning, but I'll guarantee the winning backers will pop in Sunday night with the "I told you so idiot" threads. Unless there's an absolute breakdown/blowout I don't see justification - these are both 2 top teams with excellent defenses.
5. Big Bear - please get off Cam's junk. I know you are backing them this week and GL to you, but if you're genuinely interested in the forum for capping purposes then spewing OMG/Lolz/You're-going-down smacktalk doesn't accomplish anything. I don't give much credit to Brock's trend argument but at least he's trying to post something constructive.

Ghenghis Kahn · 01-10-14, 03:15 PM

Originally posted by Brock Landers

In NFL history, there have only been 5 home dogs in this round of the playoffs...

4 of the 5 dogs won outright

Carolina is a home dog

so you're gonna take the favorite ml right?

jjgold · 01-10-14, 03:17 PM

Stats are huge square way to handicap

slacker00 · 01-10-14, 08:44 PM

Originally posted by Parligod

This whole thread is giving me a headache given the lack of logic here but let me start somewhere...

1. 4-5 games is hardly much to go off of.
2. slacker called out brock on accuracy of the "trend" and I'm too lazy to bother looking myself, but if what he says is true it basically mitigates the trend argument because: (a) he found that only 2 games in the past are remotely comparable (thus there is no trend); and (b) he distinguished the upcoming 49ers/panthers game - 49ers are hardly a true favorite given game is virtual/actual pickem.
3. You CANNOT look at stats in a vacuum. Even if we agree there's a historic trend would you bet heavily if the Panthers team consisted of 9-year-old kids in wheelchairs? Probably not, because CONTEXT matters and who plays the game matters.
4. The reality is that either one of these teams is capable of winning, but I'll guarantee the winning backers will pop in Sunday night with the "I told you so idiot" threads. Unless there's an absolute breakdown/blowout I don't see justification - these are both 2 top teams with excellent defenses.
5. Big Bear - please get off Cam's junk. I know you are backing them this week and GL to you, but if you're genuinely interested in the forum for capping purposes then spewing OMG/Lolz/You're-going-down smacktalk doesn't accomplish anything. I don't give much credit to Brock's trend argument but at least he's trying to post something constructive.

Great job, Parligod. I appeciate when someone puts forth a legitimate effort and a lot of thought into a post.