Take Bowling Green ML -235 today

ZIPPER HEAD · 12-26-13, 12:26 PM

Lot of juice bear. I see green winning by two touchdowns. Gl

RollinDo · 12-26-13, 12:37 PM

Yes, a little too much juice...would bet ML if it were -200 or better.

I took a Parlay of BG State (ML) and Stanford (ML).
1.5 units to win 1.5 units

Hope you're right Big Bear. I have not seen Pitt play this year, but according to your comments, they have little chance in this one. I saw BG vs. UNI in Detroit and they looked dang impressive.

kmarinouofm · 12-26-13, 12:40 PM

pitt with a touchdown for me.. comparing the talent the two teams have played.. i think pitt can hang with or even beat bowling green

HilltopTony · 12-26-13, 12:43 PM

I'm a season ticket holder of Pitt athletics and have seen every game this year. A motivated Pitt team will beat Bowling Green by at least 6. I really see Pitt winning this game 34-27

leetreaper · 12-26-13, 12:46 PM

Originally posted by Big Bear

The Juice only matters when you lose.

Take that low hanging fruit and get your ass to the pay window.

Been handicapping this game hard all morning BG is the play here fellas.

Why sweat a point spread when you can make a little profit and move on ?

God you are dumb......

d2bets · 12-26-13, 12:48 PM

If the juice only matters when you lose, then would you also lay -800 on this?

kmarinouofm · 12-26-13, 12:48 PM

Originally posted by HilltopTony

I'm a season ticket holder of Pitt athletics and have seen every game this year. A motivated Pitt team will beat Bowling Green by at least 6. I really see Pitt winning this game 34-27

its hard to back a Mac team.. i agree with you

Big Bear · 12-26-13, 01:07 PM

Originally posted by d2bets

If the juice only matters when you lose, then would you also lay -800 on this?

no not on this particular game and actually i generally try to avoid
anything over -500 even in a ML parlay.

believe me i am not thrilled to lay this much juice but after looking at this
game for a long time i truly believe BG wins this game. But i could also see them winning
by less than 6.5

Big Bear · 12-26-13, 01:10 PM

I am starting a new strategy with my gambling. For now i will only make single bets
and if i'm betting a football favorite that is less than 7 points i will take ML only.

AFTER this play cashes i plan to take Minnesota ML at anything less than -200 tomorrow.

Capper1124 · 12-26-13, 01:29 PM

I like Pitt to win outright, but still GL to you

warbux · 12-26-13, 01:35 PM

safe bet but i think pitt will cover

ZIPPER HEAD · 12-26-13, 01:36 PM

I'm not understanding anyone taking Pitt. What am I missing??? Nothing green is going to stomp

BIGDAY · 12-26-13, 01:42 PM

Bear, GL

d2bets · 12-26-13, 01:54 PM

Originally posted by Big Bear

no not on this particular game and actually i generally try to avoid
anything over -500 even in a ML parlay.

believe me i am not thrilled to lay this much juice but after looking at this
game for a long time i truly believe BG wins this game. But i could also see them winning
by less than 6.5

But if the juice only matters when you lose and you think you're going to win then what difference does it make? Of course the juice matters, always.

RollinDo · 12-26-13, 01:55 PM

Originally posted by ZIPPER HEAD

I'm not understanding anyone taking Pitt. What am I missing??? Nothing green is going to stomp

I'm with ya' Zip...though I did do a small parlay with Pitt (+11) and Cleveland Cavs (+6) to hedge my BG ML play

leetreaper · 12-26-13, 02:01 PM

Originally posted by d2bets

But if the juice only matters when you lose and you think you're going to win then what difference does it make? Of course the juice matters, always.

He's clueless, everyone knows that by now...

Derek Foreal · 12-26-13, 02:03 PM

BG doesn't have anyone that can block Aaron Donald.

Big Bear · 12-26-13, 02:14 PM

Originally posted by d2bets

But if the juice only matters when you lose and you think you're going to win then what difference does it make? Of course the juice matters, always.

okay i got that saying from Paco.

Yes the juice always matters but it only effects you if you lose.

Big Bear · 12-26-13, 02:21 PM

Originally posted by leetreaper

He's clueless, everyone knows that by now...

post a link to a spreadsheet. i'm about to keep a record son.

there is no room for ego in this biz and always learning new stuff everyday
but i promise u i am sharp.

leetreaper · 12-26-13, 02:23 PM

All my plays are documented in different threads but I'll start one on Jan 1st, 20014 specially for you.

RollinDo · 12-26-13, 02:26 PM

Originally posted by Big Bear

post a link to a spreadsheet. i'm about to keep a record son.

there is no room for ego in this biz and always learning new stuff everyday
but i promise u i am sharp.

I'm 2nd guessing myself for even hedging Pitt at +11 (in a parlay) I just don't see the angle on Pitt - the only impressive win was vs. ND. They are limping into this bowl game vs. one of the hottest teams in the country.
I think now BG wins by 2 TDs or so.
Oh well, let's hope for a 10-point BG win!

BigdaddyQH · 12-26-13, 02:29 PM

Originally posted by Big Bear

okay i got that saying from Paco.

Yes the juice always matters but it only effects you if you lose.

If you lose this game, you will hve to win two others just to get near even. You will still be behind. You are playing this all wrong. If you do not think that the team can win by atleast 7 or more points, you should NOT be laying the ML. It is way too big of a crap shoot.

Big Bear · 12-26-13, 02:31 PM

Originally posted by BigdaddyQH

If you lose this game, you will hve to win two others just to get near even. You will still be behind. You are playing this all wrong. If you do not think that the team can win by atleast 7 or more points, you should NOT be laying the ML. It is way too big of a crap shoot.

scared money don't win money.

i love this weeks NFL card. I aint worried bout nothin

Big Bear · 12-26-13, 02:32 PM

Originally posted by leetreaper

All my plays are documented in different threads but I'll start one on Jan 1st, 20014 specially for you.

you aint gotta prove nothin to me.

Booya711 · 12-26-13, 03:27 PM

Originally posted by Big Bear

I am starting a new strategy with my gambling. For now i will only make single bets
and if i'm betting a football favorite that is less than 7 points i will take ML only.

AFTER this play cashes i plan to take Minnesota ML at anything less than -200 tomorrow.

You must have received Brock's guide to gambling for Xmas as your stocking stuffer.....

jjgold · 12-26-13, 03:33 PM

Love Big Bear

Merry Christmas and good luck on the play

d2bets · 12-26-13, 03:35 PM

Originally posted by RollinDo

I'm 2nd guessing myself for even hedging Pitt at +11 (in a parlay) I just don't see the angle on Pitt - the only impressive win was vs. ND. They are limping into this bowl game vs. one of the hottest teams in the country.
I think now BG wins by 2 TDs or so.
Oh well, let's hope for a 10-point BG win!

Didn't Oregon State limp in as well? It's a new ballgame. Pitt has played much better competition.

Jrod124 · 12-26-13, 03:37 PM

I played Pitt at +5 early and grabbed another unit at +6.5 I think they can win this outright, but at a minimum I can that can hang

SamDiamond · 12-26-13, 03:37 PM

Originally posted by Big Bear

The Juice only matters when you lose.

Take that low hanging fruit and get your ass to the pay window.

Been handicapping this game hard all morning BG is the play here fellas.

Why sweat a point spread when you can make a little profit and move on ?

Explain this to me.

If Bowling Green is the play at -235-----

Why aren't they the play at -4, -117?

If juice doesn't matter--- then you are assuming it's going to be a blowout.

So, why not throw a number back and a better number?

If you come back to me and say, "well, anything could happen, and it could come down to a FG"----

Then you are admitting you are laying heavy chalk for a coin flip. Which is stupid.

So which is it?

stevenash · 12-26-13, 03:43 PM

I love BG, what bothers me is pretty the whole world loves BG too.
Public (which I was a big part of last week) cleaned up.

I'm expecting for the books to get that back, however, I refuse to get mind phucked, and will play BG small.
BG is on paper the very logical play

RollinDo · 12-26-13, 03:44 PM

Originally posted by SamDiamond

Explain this to me.

If Bowling Green is the play at -235-----

Why aren't they the play at -4, -117?

If juice doesn't matter--- then you are assuming it's going to be a blowout.

So, why not throw a number back and a better number?

If you come back to me and say, "well, anything could happen, and it could come down to a FG"----

Then you are admitting you are laying heavy chalk for a coin flip. Which is stupid.

So which is it?

I would think Big Bear has no doubts that BG will WIN the game, but who knows - Pitt may score a late TD or FG to keep it within 6 points. I am in the same boat - big play is on the ML, but also have Pitt +11 in a parlay with an nba game. I am more worried about Pitt hangin within double-digits to be honest. BG State is here to win, and I disagree that their bowl game was last game. Yes it was big, but they want to keep the momentum going and conclude with a memorable season.

Big Bear · 12-26-13, 03:45 PM

Originally posted by SamDiamond

Explain this to me.

If Bowling Green is the play at -235-----

Why aren't they the play at -4, -117?

If juice doesn't matter--- then you are assuming it's going to be a blowout.

So, why not throw a number back and a better number?

If you come back to me and say, "well, anything could happen, and it could come down to a FG"----

Then you are admitting you are laying heavy chalk for a coin flip. Which is stupid.

So which is it?

i dont know Sam. Anything can happen. i guess at the end of the day all I want to do is cash my ticket.

Maybe i will add Bowling Green minus the points as well.

I think this Bowling Green team has a really good defense and Pittsburgh is about as bad of a football team as i watched all season long. This is more of a Pittsburgh fade than it is a willingness to back Bowling Green.

Big Bear · 12-26-13, 03:49 PM

Originally posted by stevenash

I love BG, what bothers me is pretty the whole world loves BG too.
Public (which I was a big part of last week) cleaned up.

I'm expecting for the books to get that back, however, I refuse to get mind phucked, and will play BG small.
BG is on paper the very logical play

yeah i think in many of these bowl match ups there is a pretty large talent discrepancy.

i agree that we will start to see some underdogs cover and win straight up as we get into the more high profile matchups

Big Bear · 12-26-13, 03:50 PM

Originally posted by booya711

you must have received brock's guide to gambling for xmas as your stocking stuffer.....

lmao