Lotto (Mega Millions) top prize could reach a Billion tonight

[kaliboyz]

Hot pick from a tout: 15, 3, 41, 22, 21 mega ball 19. Locked!!!!!

[ChalkyDog]

Hot pick from a tout: 15, 3, 41, 22, 21 mega ball 19. Locked!!!!!

Mega ball only goes to 15.

Try again.

[Jago2008]

You know there was a prop on 5dimes.eu on the previous Draw:

-1200 Lottery winner.

+1000 no lottery winner.

Now the stakes are currently:

<small>Mega Millions Jackpot Winner</small>
Tue 12/17		11 Mega Millions Jackpot Winner 12/17/2013		<input id="radiox" value="M1_0" name="radiox" type="radio">-500
10:30PM		12 No Jackpot Winner 12/17/2013		<input id="radiox" value="M2_0" name="radiox" type="radio">+400
<small></small>

So is that gambling on gambling i.e. Gambling^2 (squared)... and who the hell bets this prop?


disclaimer: I just realized Nasher posted this previously.

[newguy]

If I win tonight I'd be just fine with $340 million lump sum and wouldn't even care about making a lot of interest.

I'd probably just split it up into 8 or 10 safe banks around the world, most of it would be here in Canada though.

i know it's not the smartest thing to do but why do I need to turn $340 mil into 500 million.

I agree with you - wouldn't bank it but would go for mostly low-risk investments.

You would end up with about $238 mill or so after taxes assuming you couldn't find better shelters on the lump sum (thats a 30% tax rate on $340m lump sum winnings). You invest that in a mix of stuff earning just 5% a year and it would spin off almost $11m a year. Just a quick calculation - you take that $11m, spend 50% and reinvest other 50%, pay 40% investment income taxes on the half you keep, you can still spend over $250k every month and not run out of money. And that number goes up every year because as you reinvest you spin off more interest etc.

By year 10 or 11 you could spend $350k a month and not spend even half the interest you earned that year. Sick

[stevenash]

If I win tonight I'd be just fine with $340 million lump sum and wouldn't even care about making a lot of interest.

I'd probably just split it up into 8 or 10 safe banks around the world, most of it would be here in Canada though.

i know it's not the smartest thing to do but why do I need to turn $340 mil into 500 million.

Told my wife, the first thing we do is lock up 50 percent of it, before dollar one gets spent, 1/2 gets locked up in a guaranteed t-bill or something, or IRA

[ChalkyDog]

I agree with you - wouldn't bank it but would go for mostly low-risk investments.

You would end up with about $238 mill or so after taxes assuming you couldn't find better shelters on the lump sum (thats a 30% tax rate on $340m lump sum winnings). You invest that in a mix of stuff earning just 5% a year and it would spin off almost $11m a year. Just a quick calculation - you take that $11m, spend 50% and reinvest other 50%, pay 40% investment income taxes on the half you keep, you can still spend over $250k every month and not run out of money. And that number goes up every year because as you reinvest you spin off more interest etc.

By year 10 or 11 you could spend $350k a month and not spend even half the interest you earned that year. Sick

You'd be hard pressed to turn 5% on low risk investments right now, IMO.

[Jago2008]

You'd be hard pressed to turn 5% on low risk investments right now, IMO.

That's exactly right, furthermore if purchase bonds, even high yield- high input, and interest rates rise, the value of your bond goes down. So you could end up getting a negative return on your "treasury safe haven."

If you can manage a Non-Public Real Estate Investment Trusts or REITs you could receive mid to high single-digit dividends. Public REITS can provide a higher return but are very volatile - however since this is a gambling forum, I think many of us can live with volatility, just maybe not w/ $200 mill.

[stevenash]

You know there was a prop on 5dimes.eu on the previous Draw:

-1200 Lottery winner.

+1000 no lottery winner.

Now the stakes are currently:

<small>Mega Millions Jackpot Winner</small>
Tue 12/17		11 Mega Millions Jackpot Winner 12/17/2013		<input id="radiox" value="M1_0" name="radiox" type="radio">-500
10:30PM		12 No Jackpot Winner 12/17/2013		<input id="radiox" value="M2_0" name="radiox" type="radio">+400
<small></small>

So is that gambling on gambling i.e. Gambling^2 (squared)... and who the hell bets this prop?


disclaimer: I just realized Nasher posted this previously.

You know they have geeks at 5D feeding data into some mainframe like estimated ticket sales divided into all sorts of data, came up with the odds of somebody winning tonight was about 3.5 or so to 1 and decided to juice up the prop to 5 to 1

Ticket Matches Payout Odds Probability
--------------------------------------------------------------------
5 White + Mega Jackpot 1 in 258,890,850.00 0.000000003863
5 White No Mega 1,000,000 1 in 18,492,203.57 0.00000005408
4 White + Mega 5,000 1 in 739,688.14 0.000001352
4 White No Mega 500 1 in 52,834.87 0.00001893
3 White + Mega 50 1 in 10,720.12 0.00009328
3 White No Mega 5 1 in 765.72 0.001306
2 White + Mega 5 1 in 472.95 0.002114
1 White + Mega 2 1 in 56.47 0.01771
0 White + Mega 1 1 in 21.39 0.04675

Win something Variable 1 in 14.71 0.0679916


In any combinatorics problem where all possible outcomes are equally likely, the probability of a successful outcome is determined by finding the number of successful combinations, and then dividing by the total number of all combinations. There are nine possible configurations that will win something in the Mega Millions Lottery. For each of these, the probability of winning equals the number of winning combinations for that particular configuration divided by the total number of ways the Mega Millions numbers can be picked

Since the total number of combinations for Mega Millions numbers is used in all the calculations, we will calculate it first. The number of ways 5 numbers can be randomly selected from a field of 75 is: COMBIN(75,5) = 17,259,390.

The number of ways the first 5 numbers on your lottery ticket can match the 5 White numbers is COMBIN(5,5) = 1. The number of ways your final number can match the Mega number is: COMBIN(1,1) = 1. The product of these is the number of ways you can win the Jackpot: COMBIN(5,5) x COMBIN(1,1) = 1. The probability of success is thus: 1/258,890,850 = 0.0000000038626316844. If you express this as “One chance in ???”, you just divide “1” by the 0.0000000038626316844, which yields “One chance in 258,890,850”.

[Jago2008]

^^^Great post.

[Madison]

Take this all lightheartidly ...

Tax on the poor.

NY was supposedly betting 500K an hour at peak last draw.

Only 31% of the possible numbers have been played? Think about that one.

They lowered the odds of winning to suck more people in. Really?

And on and on.

Yeah I played $5. ... Checks for all my friends here when I win. LOL

[bubblebuttluv]

If I win tonight I'd be just fine with $340 million lump sum and wouldn't even care about making a lot of interest.

I'd probably just split it up into 8 or 10 safe banks around the world, most of it would be here in Canada though.

i know it's not the smartest thing to do but why do I need to turn $340 mil into 500 million.

Don't worry, you won't win you little bitch.

Keep flying your fake planes.

[Madison]

Nasher ... A mill would change my life. lol.

[Madison]

Hot pick from a tout: 15, 3, 41, 22, 21 mega ball 19. Locked!!!!!

Funny, you forgot "POTY" "Lock"

[Louisvillekid1]

Brock and Kerry have started collecting $100 each from numerous posters in an online pool.

[brooks85]

they make the odds significantly worse and in return more people play... lol

[Madison]

they make the odds significantly worse and in return more people play... lol

Yep!! exactly. Bigger pools. This is what killed greyhound racing in the 80's.

[stevenash]

Nasher ... A mill would change my life. lol.

Little bit, that's about 10 years of salary
Need about 4 mil

[Madison]

Little bit, that's about 10 years of salary
Need about 4 mil

Smaller life expectency here.

[Louisvillekid1]

I'm 28

If I won this, I'd never see 40

W/ that being said I'm locked and loaded

[Jikos]

If you played 1,000,000 tickets you would have a 99.6% chance of not winning the jackpot.

[Madison]

I'm 28

If I won this, I'd never see 40

W/ that being said I'm locked and loaded

Dude , you and I need to meet at some point. I also thought 40 was about it, but here I am closing in on 60 (did I just say that). Lot of dents though. One imortant thing though .. they can bury me tomorrow and very few regrets. GL boys!!

[ChalkyDog]

I'm 28

If I won this, I'd never see 40

W/ that being said I'm locked and loaded

It would be an incredible 12 years though.

[Madison]

I'm 28

If I won this, I'd never see 40

W/ that being said I'm locked and loaded

Sometime we'll talk about first pick 6 jackpot in Fla in 80's. Wife said same thing "might be good you didn't win". Like 250K. Chump change now right?

[stevenash]

Dude , you and I need to meet at some point. I also thought 40 was about it, but here I am closing in on 60 (did I just say that). Lot of dents though. One imortant thing though .. they can bury me tomorrow and very few regrets. GL boys!!

Now I don't feel so old

[Madison]

I'm 28

If I won this, I'd never see 40

W/ that being said I'm locked and loaded

See dwight gooden.

[Louisvillekid1]

to no regrets

[Madison]

Now I don't feel so old

You're a smart dude. Anything I can offer would be my pleasure. Survival my man. I can't rival the strippers (obviously) but I could keep you and LKid entertained for hours with gamblin stories.

[ChalkyDog]

Have a closet filled with that mother of pearl nose candy might not be a dream for most, but it's a dream nonetheless.

[Madison]

to no regrets

Exactly man!!

[Louisvillekid1]

Have a closet filled with that mother of pearl nose candy might not be a dream for most, but it's a dream nonetheless.

Dam you guys have officially got me sittin here dreaming.

I wasn't even gonna drink tonight

[stevenash]

Have a closet filled with that mother of pearl nose candy might not be a dream for most, but it's a dream nonetheless.

I got some Peruvian marching powder stories of my own, I started to make the beau coup dollars when I was 22, in the 80's when Regan was in full swing.
Everybody had money, I mean everybody, I was pulling down serious money, working in mid-town NYC, supporting a data center, 4 to midnight shift.
We would turn the shift over to graveyard at midnight, head over to the Blarney on 57th Street, stay to last call at 3:45am, crawl into bed at 6am, get up at 2pm, get up, and do it again. Amen

[pavyracer]

Even if it reaches a billion the take hom prize would still be half of that after taxes.

[Jago2008]

I'm 28

If I won this, I'd never see 40

W/ that being said I'm locked and loaded

Also 28, however I'd spend my time surfing, and occasionally having a nice blaze after inputting some bets. Invest in downtown SD.

That white powder will put holes in your brain, but who I am to judge?! Not advocating MJ is better - but anything that grows from the ground, i.e. not synthesized is prolly ok.... Alcohol is horrible however.

*steps down from his soap box*.

[Louisvillekid1]

I got some Peruvian marching powder stories of my own, I started to make the beau coup dollars when I was 22, in the 80's when Regan was in full swing.
Everybody had money, I mean everybody, I was pulling down serious money, working in mid-town NYC, supporting a data center, 4 to midnight shift.
We would turn the shift over to graveyard at midnight, head over to the Blarney on 57th Street, stay to last call at 3:45am, crawl into bed at 6am, get up at 2pm, get up, and do it again. Amen

[ChalkyDog]

I got some Peruvian marching powder stories of my own, I started to make the beau coup dollars when I was 22, in the 80's when Regan was in full swing.
Everybody had money, I mean everybody, I was pulling down serious money, working in mid-town NYC, supporting a data center, 4 to midnight shift.
We would turn the shift over to graveyard at midnight, head over to the Blarney on 57th Street, stay to last call at 3:45am, crawl into bed at 6am, get up at 2pm, get up, and do it again. Amen

Peruvian flake, I've had a ton of the supposed stuff. Most of it was absolute fire. However, I think it most likely got its pink coloring from being wrapped in something red on the way to America.

I prefer to see a nice fish scale, although the yellow soft stuff is probably the best I've had - but it's not as prevalent.