fantastic WRITE UP about how books are baiting, chasing Seattle money today.

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  • wagerjunkie
    SBR MVP
    • 08-24-13
    • 4105

    #1
    fantastic WRITE UP about how books are baiting, chasing Seattle money today.
    WRITE UP IS NOT MINE.

    wow! Did you see what the Seahawks did to the Saints on Monday Night Football?! So did everyone else and we’re always quick to point out that the worst time to step in on a team is after a game like that. A win here by the 11-1 Seahawks just formalizes that they will be hosting the NFC Championship after beating whatever wildcard dregs bubble up in round two. A loss here wouldn't change that much since the Seahawks still would have a two game lead over the 49ers but that’s not to say that Seattle won’t be motivated. However, the Seachickens are just a little too high for our liking. Every sportscast, every NFL preview show, every sports talk radio show has been raving all week about how this Seattle team can’t be beat. Make no mistake - these Seahawks are a great team in all facets and in games that they win by smaller margins are usually because they know they don't have to try too hard to win. It would come as no surprise to see a lesser effort here from Seattle after they have already destroyed the 49ers once this year and after that highly charged up win over the Saints on Monday.
    Besides, the 49ers are no pushovers and they absolutely have something to prove here. This is a team with outstanding defense that has allowed just 52 points against over the past four games against Carolina, New Orleans, Washington and St. Louis. The 49ers are one of the best pass defenses in the league and have only allowed three touchdowns by a quarterback in the last five home games almost with marginal yardage in most cases. Russell Wilson will have to throw more than eight completions this time and even then he threw 19 times for those eight catches (Wilson passed for only 142 yards and one score on his eight completions in the first meeting). Colin Kaepernick was supposed to have a big year but that’s not been the case at all. Frankly, the entire 49ers team has been inconsistent and it’s no secret that the 49ers have not defeated a playoff team yet this year while losing to every team that is likely going to the playoffs (Indy, Seattle, Carolina and New Orleans). Now they’re spotting spots to the best team in the NFL? The oddsmakers didn’t error here. They are very aware that this late Sunday afternoon game is going to attract a ton of action. The oddmakers also know they could have made this game a pick-em and not swayed a single wager. They’re gambling that the 49ers are going to play their best game in two years and/or the Seahawks will not be great on Sunday. Indeed the Seahawks have appeal taking back points but if the better team won every time out we’d all be rich. When the oddsmakers make a statement, like they are here, you would be wise to listen. That statement says to lay the points because they are begging you to take them.
  • boeing power
    SBR Hall of Famer
    • 03-23-10
    • 9698

    #2
    Same as books wanting you to pound the chiefs today.
    Comment
    • Smoke
      SBR Aristocracy
      • 10-09-09
      • 48111

      #3
      Originally posted by boeing power
      Same as books wanting you to pound the chiefs today.
      This
      Comment
      • Louisvillekid1
        SBR Aristocracy
        • 10-17-07
        • 52143

        #4
        I could create a fantastic write up arguing the other side.

        All that bullshit goes out the window in this rivalry.

        I've learned nothing from reading that

        Im on Seattle
        Comment
        • wagerjunkie
          SBR MVP
          • 08-24-13
          • 4105

          #5
          Originally posted by Louisvillekid1
          I could create a fantastic write up arguing the other side.

          All that bullshit goes out the window in this rivalry.

          I've learned nothing from reading that

          Im on Seattle
          yah. game gets decided on the field. I'm not touching the game but just some food for thought.
          Comment
          • TPowell
            SBR Posting Legend
            • 02-21-08
            • 18842

            #6
            I just think Kaep is a sitting duck tonight. Everyone knows he can't beat them with his arm so he'll get pressure all night and won't be able to move around IMO. Seattle on the road worries me historically, as does the rivalry
            Comment
            • jjgold
              SBR Aristocracy
              • 07-20-05
              • 388179

              #7
              SF for me

              Home and playing real well
              Comment
              • k13
                SBR Posting Legend
                • 07-16-10
                • 18104

                #8
                Originally posted by boeing power
                Same as books wanting you to pound the chiefs today.
                Not really. Opened -3, moved to -3.5, clear sign the other way around.

                Jets -2.5, hits 3, game over, public in love with a road dog again

                Phi -3, gets off the 3, game over for philly
                tb -2.5 , hits 3, game over
                cin -5, hits 7, game over

                blah blah blah

                books give you winners why even handicap
                Comment
                • broadway6
                  SBR Posting Legend
                  • 11-14-09
                  • 13337

                  #9
                  everyone on sbr on niners, so books need to get the money even


                  Comment
                  • 2daBank
                    SBR Aristocracy
                    • 01-26-09
                    • 88966

                    #10
                    that all well and good except for there a ton more money on sf
                    Comment
                    • Becel
                      SBR High Roller
                      • 12-14-08
                      • 139

                      #11
                      Hawks will likely roll here. They are legit.
                      Comment
                      • wagerjunkie
                        SBR MVP
                        • 08-24-13
                        • 4105

                        #12
                        Originally posted by 2daBank
                        that all well and good except for there a ton more money on sf
                        there aren't many times i disagree with you but this is one.

                        "joe public" gotta be pounding shit out of Seattle
                        Comment
                        • 2daBank
                          SBR Aristocracy
                          • 01-26-09
                          • 88966

                          #13
                          Originally posted by wagerjunkie
                          there aren't many times i disagree with you but this is one.

                          "joe public" gotta be pounding shit out of Seattle
                          not really..look at the forums all around..there several ppl i respect on sf and i leaned that way but there a ton of the typical avg super square lames all over sf as well..
                          Comment
                          • wagerjunkie
                            SBR MVP
                            • 08-24-13
                            • 4105

                            #14
                            Originally posted by 2daBank
                            not really..look at the forums all around..there several ppl i respect on sf and i leaned that way but there a ton of the typical avg super square lames all over sf as well..
                            personally, I just think this a bad game to try and make money on, period.
                            Comment
                            • 2daBank
                              SBR Aristocracy
                              • 01-26-09
                              • 88966

                              #15
                              Originally posted by wagerjunkie
                              personally, I just think this a bad game to try and make money on, period.
                              I agree. Sf was a really strong lean for me at 1st of week and the setup was perfect but as I got into capping it more it just made sense to pass,.
                              Comment
                              • Tommy Karate
                                SBR Posting Legend
                                • 10-12-13
                                • 13445

                                #16
                                im on the niners big, but whoever things the books were begging for sea money is dead wrong imo...

                                hanging 2.5 all week at the sharp shops is an indicator that books want money on SF. whether that means they need SF money to balance sharp money on Sea, or they know Sea is gonna win (books have crystal balls).....whats the difference between PK and +2.5? virtually nothing...
                                Comment
                                • face
                                  SBR Posting Legend
                                  • 01-31-11
                                  • 14740

                                  #17
                                  Originally posted by Tommy Karate
                                  whats the difference between PK and +2.5? virtually nothing...
                                  8% of games decided by 1 or 2
                                  15% decided by 3
                                  interesting site: http://www.marasoft.com/nfl-margin-victory.php
                                  Comment
                                  • suicidekings
                                    SBR Hall of Famer
                                    • 03-23-09
                                    • 9962

                                    #18
                                    Should have been a huge red flag for Niners backers that the number never went back to -3 before kickoff... Not a guarantee, but that's typically a bad sign for anyone wanting to back SF here.

                                    Now 14-9 Seahawks and the Niners are really struggling to slow Seattle down. If SF is going to win this, it will have to be power vs power. Their defense is not going to get the job done for them today.
                                    Comment
                                    • Tommy Karate
                                      SBR Posting Legend
                                      • 10-12-13
                                      • 13445

                                      #19
                                      Originally posted by suicidekings
                                      Should have been a huge red flag for Niners backers that the number never went back to -3 before kickoff... Not a guarantee, but that's typically a bad sign for anyone wanting to back SF here.

                                      Now 14-9 Seahawks and the Niners are really struggling to slow Seattle down. If SF is going to win this, it will have to be power vs power. Their defense is not going to get the job done for them today.
                                      i cant tell you how many times ive bought into that (take the dog +2.5 angle)...
                                      im not buying into it as anything relevant unless there are some long term #'s to back it up....perhaps i would say that its 53-55% if you're always getting 3.5 when the sharper books have 2.5.

                                      agree on SF....this one has 2 point win written all over it..
                                      Comment
                                      • wagerjunkie
                                        SBR MVP
                                        • 08-24-13
                                        • 4105

                                        #20
                                        Originally posted by wagerjunkie
                                        personally, I just think this a bad game to try and make money on, period.
                                        games like this too tough to try and pad the roll. better off just sitting back, relax and enjoy.
                                        Comment
                                        • ksnooksk
                                          SBR MVP
                                          • 11-18-11
                                          • 2890

                                          #21
                                          Originally posted by Black_QB's suck
                                          So the book wanted us to "pound the chiefs" today? I assume that means they want us to bet the chiefs. Why would the books want that when they usually would know the fixes or the results ahead of time. And on this game, obviously was not even close so why would books want betters to bet the chiefs today?
                                          Books wanted the "faux" sharps to pound the Skins.
                                          Comment
                                          • Tommy Karate
                                            SBR Posting Legend
                                            • 10-12-13
                                            • 13445

                                            #22
                                            ahhh....way to go kaperknocker
                                            Comment
                                            • Tommy Karate
                                              SBR Posting Legend
                                              • 10-12-13
                                              • 13445

                                              #23
                                              Originally posted by suicidekings
                                              Should have been a huge red flag for Niners backers that the number never went back to -3 before kickoff... Not a guarantee, but that's typically a bad sign for anyone wanting to back SF here.

                                              Now 14-9 Seahawks and the Niners are really struggling to slow Seattle down. If SF is going to win this, it will have to be power vs power. Their defense is not going to get the job done for them today.
                                              hopefully you backed up all this with some actual money on the hawks. read between the lines perfectly....
                                              Comment
                                              • suicidekings
                                                SBR Hall of Famer
                                                • 03-23-09
                                                • 9962

                                                #24
                                                Originally posted by Tommy Karate
                                                i cant tell you how many times ive bought into that (take the dog +2.5 angle)...
                                                im not buying into it as anything relevant unless there are some long term #'s to back it up....perhaps i would say that its 53-55% if you're always getting 3.5 when the sharper books have 2.5.

                                                agree on SF....this one has 2 point win written all over it..
                                                Push probability tables are based on the results of thousands of games. +2.5 is not worthless.

                                                Big run from SF, and Seattle backers might well be wishing they had that +2.5 in a few minutes. I know I wish I did...
                                                Comment
                                                • suicidekings
                                                  SBR Hall of Famer
                                                  • 03-23-09
                                                  • 9962

                                                  #25
                                                  Originally posted by Tommy Karate
                                                  hopefully you backed up all this with some actual money on the hawks. read between the lines perfectly....
                                                  Teased up to +8.5, and played the ML, unfortunately. However it was a live line at +216, so I can't feel too bad if it fails to cash.
                                                  Comment
                                                  • Tommy Karate
                                                    SBR Posting Legend
                                                    • 10-12-13
                                                    • 13445

                                                    #26
                                                    this is sick...what a tease this may end up being
                                                    Comment
                                                    • Tommy Karate
                                                      SBR Posting Legend
                                                      • 10-12-13
                                                      • 13445

                                                      #27
                                                      cant complain - i guess harbaugh played that right.

                                                      i typically take the ML when i go heavy on a spread thats 3 or less....paid the price this time. just brutal..
                                                      Comment
                                                      • byronbb
                                                        SBR MVP
                                                        • 11-13-08
                                                        • 3067

                                                        #28
                                                        Books gonna get buried with heavy action on SF -2.5 and Sea ML.
                                                        Comment
                                                        • wagerjunkie
                                                          SBR MVP
                                                          • 08-24-13
                                                          • 4105

                                                          #29
                                                          BUBBA VENTRONE. damn that dude was Fkn flyyyyyyyyyingggg down on that kick off holy shit
                                                          Comment
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