Dollars2Donuts Daily NBA, NHL and NFL wagers

[Dollars2Donuts]

the week thing is confusing, how is a week in november number 5 and then a week in December number 2 or 3...

Also, imo, more important than unit +- by sport would be the amount of plays and W/L ratio per sport.

I completely disagree with this. W/L per sport means NOTHING. All you should care about is profit/loss. I bet units for a reason, and while I would be ahead if I was just betting one unit per game, my ROI would be lower. If anyone tails I encourage them to come up with a unit model that works with their bankroll.

Ok, on to picks....I am on my mobile all day and I know how mad this is going to look. Can somebody reformat this for me or repost in a more user friendly way?

Thanks!!

216984852-1 12/18/13 2:11pm $50.00 $50.00 Pending 12/18/13 7:35pm Reduced Hockey 1 Ottawa Senators Under 2½ +100* vs New Jersey Devils
216984762-1 12/18/13 2:09pm $108.00 $100.00 Pending 12/18/13 7:05pm Reduced Basketball 701 Indiana Pacers/Miami Heat Under 189 -108*
216984762-2 12/18/13 2:09pm $103.00 $100.00 Pending 12/18/13 7:05pm Reduced Basketball 705 Charlotte Bobcats/Toronto Raptors Over 190½ -103*
216984762-3 12/18/13 2:09pm $108.00 $100.00 Pending 12/18/13 7:35pm Reduced Basketball 712 Brooklyn Nets -4 -108* vs Washington Wizards
216984762-4 12/18/13 2:09pm $101.00 $100.00 Pending 12/18/13 8:05pm Reduced Basketball 714 Milwaukee Bucks +3 -101* vs New York Knicks
216984762-5 12/18/13 2:09pm $157.50 $150.00 Pending 12/18/13 8:35pm Reduced Basketball 717 Memphis Grizzlies/Dallas Mavericks Over 192 -105*
216984762-6 12/18/13 2:09pm $103.00 $100.00 Pending 12/18/13 9:05pm Reduced Basketball 719 San Antonio Spurs/Phoenix Suns Over 202 -103*
216984762-7 12/18/13 2:09pm $103.00 $100.00 Pending 12/18/13 9:35pm Reduced Basketball 722 Houston Rockets -8 -103* vs Chicago Bulls
216096371-1 12/14/13 1:43am $15.00 $1,050.00 Pending 12/15/13 1:00pm Football NFL Super Bowl XLVIII - Green Bay Packers +7000*
216059140-1 12/13/13 10:36pm $40.00 $2,800.00 Pending 12/15/13 1:00pm Football NFL Super Bowl XLVIII - Green Bay Packers +7000*

[Dollars2Donuts]

And please disregard the last two wagers. They were made prior to last Sunday and were a friend and I, so should not be included in my stats, win or lose.

[Dollars2Donuts]

Any early leans on nhl tonight D2D?

I don't care for either game, but I think there is a very good possibility that Ottawa goes under 2.5 goals here.

[OpinionatedPrime]

Ok, on to picks....I am on my mobile all day and I know how mad this is going to look. Can somebody reformat this for me or repost in a more user friendly way?

Ticket	Time Placed	Ammount	To Win	Status	Wager
216984852-1	12/18/13 2:11pm	$50.00	$50.00	Pending	12/18/13 7:35pm Reduced Hockey 1 Ottawa Senators Under 2¬Ω +100* vs New Jersey Devils
216984762-1	12/18/13 2:09pm	$108.00	$100.00	Pending	12/18/13 7:05pm Reduced Basketball 701 Indiana Pacers/Miami Heat Under 189 -108*
216984762-2	12/18/13 2:09pm	$103.00	$100.00	Pending	12/18/13 7:05pm Reduced Basketball 705 Charlotte Bobcats/Toronto Raptors Over 190¬Ω -103*
216984762-3	12/18/13 2:09pm	$108.00	$100.00	Pending	12/18/13 7:35pm Reduced Basketball 712 Brooklyn Nets -4 -108* vs Washington Wizards
216984762-4	12/18/13 2:09pm	$101.00	$100.00	Pending	12/18/13 8:05pm Reduced Basketball 714 Milwaukee Bucks +3 -101* vs New York Knicks
216984762-5	12/18/13 2:09pm	$157.50	$150.00	Pending	12/18/13 8:35pm Reduced Basketball 717 Memphis Grizzlies/Dallas Mavericks Over 192 -105*
216984762-6	12/18/13 2:09pm	$103.00	$100.00	Pending	12/18/13 9:05pm Reduced Basketball 719 San Antonio Spurs/Phoenix Suns Over 202 -103*
216984762-7	12/18/13 2:09pm	$103.00	$100.00	Pending	12/18/13 9:35pm Reduced Basketball 722 Houston Rockets -8 -103* vs Chicago Bulls
216096371-1	12/14/13 1:43am	$15.00	$1,050.00	Pending	12/15/13 1:00pm Football NFL Super Bowl XLVIII - Green Bay Packers +7000*
216059140-1	12/13/13 10:36pm	$40.00	$2,800.00	Pending	12/15/13 1:00pm Football NFL Super Bowl XLVIII - Green Bay Packers +7000*

[Shazzadude]

I take it there's no POD play today?

[Cornelius]

I take it there's no POD play today?

Mavs/grizzlies over 192 I would assume

[Noleafclover]

He's heavy on Grizzlies/Mavs > 192. FWIW, leetreaper and ksnooksk are also respected and on it. I tailed.

[hus7ler]

I completely disagree with this. W/L per sport means NOTHING. All you should care about is profit/loss. I bet units for a reason, and while I would be ahead if I was just betting one unit per game, my ROI would be lower. If anyone tails I encourage them to come up with a unit model that works with their bankroll.

Ok, on to picks....I am on my mobile all day and I know how mad this is going to look. Can somebody reformat this for me or repost in a more user friendly way?

Thanks!!

216984852-1 12/18/13 2:11pm $50.00 $50.00 Pending 12/18/13 7:35pm Reduced Hockey 1 Ottawa Senators Under 2½ +100* vs New Jersey Devils
216984762-1 12/18/13 2:09pm $108.00 $100.00 Pending 12/18/13 7:05pm Reduced Basketball 701 Indiana Pacers/Miami Heat Under 189 -108*
216984762-2 12/18/13 2:09pm $103.00 $100.00 Pending 12/18/13 7:05pm Reduced Basketball 705 Charlotte Bobcats/Toronto Raptors Over 190½ -103*
216984762-3 12/18/13 2:09pm $108.00 $100.00 Pending 12/18/13 7:35pm Reduced Basketball 712 Brooklyn Nets -4 -108* vs Washington Wizards
216984762-4 12/18/13 2:09pm $101.00 $100.00 Pending 12/18/13 8:05pm Reduced Basketball 714 Milwaukee Bucks +3 -101* vs New York Knicks
216984762-5 12/18/13 2:09pm $157.50 $150.00 Pending 12/18/13 8:35pm Reduced Basketball 717 Memphis Grizzlies/Dallas Mavericks Over 192 -105*
216984762-6 12/18/13 2:09pm $103.00 $100.00 Pending 12/18/13 9:05pm Reduced Basketball 719 San Antonio Spurs/Phoenix Suns Over 202 -103*
216984762-7 12/18/13 2:09pm $103.00 $100.00 Pending 12/18/13 9:35pm Reduced Basketball 722 Houston Rockets -8 -103* vs Chicago Bulls
216096371-1 12/14/13 1:43am $15.00 $1,050.00 Pending 12/15/13 1:00pm Football NFL Super Bowl XLVIII - Green Bay Packers +7000*
216059140-1 12/13/13 10:36pm $40.00 $2,800.00 Pending 12/15/13 1:00pm Football NFL Super Bowl XLVIII - Green Bay Packers +7000*

Good picks, i cross reference our plays. However, i must disagree with you on the variation of units. I tried it too and it burned me, so im at the 1 unit a game for all game model. This is why.

Unlike Blackjack, where you have to also play the hands where you know you are at negative value, the same does not apply to sports. If you don't like a certain game, you don't have to bet it. But if you keep going out when the count is negative and coming back in when the count is positive, you'll get banned faster than ratzz will jump on an opportunity to trash talk kobe. That is why the variation of units in BJ is essential to being profitable. On the other hand, in sports you can always pick your spot.

Furthermore are you using the kelly criterion to find your unit size? If you are, what kind of stats are you using to come to the percentage? Can you truly say when you value a team to win 70% of the time, that it is accurate?

[High3rEl3m3nt]

Viejo, is that you? If so, I enjoyed your appearance on the show last night...GL this week!

[burkestar]

tony parker out for next 2 games

[tknklsbr]

gl tonight d2d, bol 2 all

[Dollars2Donuts]

Well, unless we see it comes down to fouls, or OT I think the Raptor game has been blown...Sessions missing that free throw did not help

Really too bad, as with 6.5 minutes to go it looked like it was 90% to go over.

[Dollars2Donuts]

I hate when I cheer for something and I look at my sheet and find out I was off. This refers to the Heat/Pacers game....I was sure I was on the under 192....I was fist pumping when it stalled at 191.....then I check back and find out it was 189.

That hurts....I actually thought 'wow, we finally won a close one!!!! Yay!!' Instead we lost by 2.

[Dollars2Donuts]

You know what is funny.....every game in the NBA is going to go over tonight....except I don't think my Memphis and Mavs game will....yikes.

[ThiaZ]

20 points in 5mins.. They can do it, come on! Let's win a close one for once..

edit:

UNDOING MY JINX

edit2:

NOW I CAN CELEBRATE

[Dollars2Donuts]

I think we are going to lose this Milwakee game. Kind of sad, seeing how we had them +3 and they went to OT and Double OT. Even a close loss or a three point loss would have been ok.

Meh.

[Dollars2Donuts]

And 22 points in the first 8 minutes of the fourth quarter in the Spurs game.....that game was assured after 3 Q's....crazy.

[tto827]

I think we are going to lose this Milwakee game. Kind of sad, seeing how we had them +3 and they went to OT and Double OT. Even a close loss or a three point loss would have been ok.

Meh.

My game cast showed the game went final with Knicks winning by 2 for like 2 minutes in the first OT so I closed it assuming push with spread win and ML loss, now I find out they didn't even cover..... Yikes.

[Dollars2Donuts]

My game cast showed the game went final with Knicks winning by 2 for like 2 minutes in the first OT so I closed it assuming push with spread win and ML loss, now I find out they didn't even cover..... Yikes.

We would have won at the end of regulation and the first OT if the Bucks hadn't tied it late, OR the Knicks had made a basket at the end. That is the third time we have gone to OT WITH points this season and not covered....0 for 3 in OT games....kind of weird, especially because we had at least 2.5 points in all three.

[16johnnymac]

We would have won at the end of regulation and the first OT if the Bucks hadn't tied it late, OR the Knicks had made a basket at the end. That is the third time we have gone to OT WITH points this season and not covered....0 for 3 in OT games....kind of weird, especially because we had at least 2.5 points in all three.

Nicks won by more than 3 1/2

[Dollars2Donuts]

Nicks won by more than 3 1/2

And what does that have to do with anything?

[Dollars2Donuts]

Is Harden shaving points here? Did anyone else see him pull up on the run, and then basically allow Dunleavy (big awkward tool) steal the ball away from him....and foul him. Seriously....I don't call crap like that EVER (except one college game where is was SOOOOO obviously about 6 years ago) but he has me a little worried. Keep a close eye on that guy for the next 5 minutes.....they are up 17 at home....if they win by less than 8.....and he makes a bunch of blunders.....I am going to investigate....lol.

EDIT: Then he loses his man on the cut, basket.....

[DOM-Ganador]

Krispy I had Knicks ML and b/c it went to OT, I had great confidence in the cash.
Almost as a rule, when I have an NBA dog, game goes OT. its a loss.

Keep up the good work, tailed on that Ott under pick, thanks.

[Dollars2Donuts]

Well, a 5-3 night and we won our 2nd POD, so all in all not bad. A 4 (minus the juice) unit profit will always be an ok day.

I am seriously down on my number of plays per day right now (averaging around 10 per day, normal is closer to 15).....and once I see one or two things that I am looking for in the NBA, the number of plays will be back to normal.

I would like to complain about another couple of crazy, close-call losses, but at least tonight we had a couple of close wins....seems like every night we keep getting all of these OT losses, and one or two point over and under losses, but I know that will turn around....it always does. I smell another 8-1 day coming soon.

D2D

[Dollars2Donuts]

Good picks, i cross reference our plays. However, i must disagree with you on the variation of units. I tried it too and it burned me, so im at the 1 unit a game for all game model. This is why.

Unlike Blackjack, where you have to also play the hands where you know you are at negative value, the same does not apply to sports. If you don't like a certain game, you don't have to bet it. But if you keep going out when the count is negative and coming back in when the count is positive, you'll get banned faster than ratzz will jump on an opportunity to trash talk kobe. That is why the variation of units in BJ is essential to being profitable. On the other hand, in sports you can always pick your spot.

Furthermore are you using the kelly criterion to find your unit size? If you are, what kind of stats are you using to come to the percentage? Can you truly say when you value a team to win 70% of the time, that it is accurate?

Sorry I didn't get to this sooner....as it comes to the variation of units, I certainly do understand your position. It is something I am completely comfortable and that I have found has worked for me across my last 1800 wagers. When I am wagering, I make a lot of plays (obviously....as far as I know I am the highest volume guy around) and I find that takes a lot of the ups and downs out of it (control the variance, don't let it control you). Could I possibly just bet my best 10%, yes....could that be profitable? Yes. But would my ups and downs be greater? YES. Would I tilt on only one play per day? YES. Would I lose control over my bankroll....possibly....and even more likely I would lose my mind. I understand my weaknesses as a gambler, and volume is my only true solution.

In essence I would prefer to put 25% of my bankroll down every day on an assortment of games, rather than 10% per day on my best play.

As for calling a game, and the percentage of said game, that is only from combining my experience, statistics AND even more importantly I cap emotional ups and downs of players and teams. I am sure there are ways to beat the games using pure statistics....there have to be people out there, employing computers to find real trends....those people are probably killing it (but very gently).

As for the Kelly Criterion, whoever Kelly is, she can suck my rooster (ok, I know about Kelly, but I do not use it). I have read a lot of books and heard all of the theories and I have discovered my own, you need to bet money on the team that wins, more than on the team that loses....frankly, that is the only 'criterion' that I use.


D2D

[Dollars2Donuts]

I have been going over the NFL card this week....I loved last week's card....this Sunday scares me.

[Dollars2Donuts]

And for those of you that have asked about last year (and didn't bother trying to comb through 110 pages of my thread) here are the stats from my first thread at SBR:

Totals (111 documented days):

833-700 (54.33%)



+ $ 12,458.65


Play of the Day:

45-22 (67.16%)

+ $6452.93

This is all documented on page 106 of my last thread with my last day of MLB picks from the following day, which were never added originally (as I stopped making wagers at that point....was entirely too frustrated with my favorite sport). These picks (yes, all 1533) were all posted properly and before game time, or immediately when making in game plays (which I tried to give people heads up on).

NOW, it seems like I haven't found as much traction this year....and that we have constantly been losing almost all of the close ones....that's why I went back to the old thread. What I found was that the number is close enough that I am not too worried. At an ROI of over 5%, and the fact that I bet over $1k per day (last year it was well over $2k and I will get there again this year) the profits will come. The difference between 54.33 and 53.51 isn't that huge, it is still statistically significant.

I look forward to slowly getting those numbers up to 54%+ in the coming days.

Cheers guys.

[EasyPicks]

I completely disagree with this. W/L per sport means NOTHING. All you should care about is profit/loss. I bet units for a reason, and while I would be ahead if I was just betting one unit per game, my ROI would be lower. If anyone tails I encourage them to come up with a unit model that works with their bankroll.

obviously it means. It means if you/me/anyone know what they are doing or just getting lucky. One thing is to make money getting lucky (for example by hitting a big parlay or only the big units plays during some time) the other one is to beat the odds consistently (at -110 would be ~52,5%) therefore making money would be a no brainer with even the wildest money management strategies.

As you said "u bet units for a reason" and your main concern is making profit. I couldn't agree more, but the winning ratio is also a good indicator specially if you are betting on different sports.

just my opinion.

GL

[EasyPicks]

And for those of you that have asked about last year (and didn't bother trying to comb through 110 pages of my thread) here are the stats from my first thread at SBR:

Totals (111 documented days):

833-700 (54.33%)



+ $ 12,458.65


Play of the Day:

45-22 (67.16%)

+ $6452.93

Impressive numbers

[CatHawk]

And for those of you that have asked about last year (and didn't bother trying to comb through 110 pages of my thread) here are the stats from my first thread at SBR:

Totals (111 documented days):

833-700 (54.33%)



+ $ 12,458.65


Play of the Day:

45-22 (67.16%)

+ $6452.93

Umm.... Holy crap! Well done D2D!

BOL on the future!

[CaptainInsano]

Great Job D2D. I use two locals and was comparing lines the Heat total jumped from 189 - 191 when I was puttin in plays. Got lucky for a push there. Thanks for your input and all your work.

-Captain

[RollinDo]

Man, can't wait for your POD D2D! Your picks are golden!

[Dollars2Donuts]

obviously it means. It means if you/me/anyone know what they are doing or just getting lucky. One thing is to make money getting lucky (for example by hitting a big parlay or only the big units plays during some time) the other one is to beat the odds consistently (at -110 would be ~52,5%) therefore making money would be a no brainer with even the wildest money management strategies.

As you said "u bet units for a reason" and your main concern is making profit. I couldn't agree more, but the winning ratio is also a good indicator specially if you are betting on different sports.

just my opinion.

GL

*sighs*

All I am saying is that units mean more than anything else. If you are measuring somebodies consistency over 20 picks, sure....I have put up over 1700 plays. All I am saying is this.....at the end of the day/week/month/year, if I have more than I started with, THAT is what matters.

[Dollars2Donuts]

Ok guys, here are today's picks:

217127556-1	12/19/13 1:35pm	$112.00	$100.00		Pending	12/19/13 7:05pm NHL Hockey 55 Boston Bruins (1st 60 min) -½ -112* <small>vs</small> Buffalo Sabres (1st 60 min)
217127556-2	12/19/13 1:35pm	$100.00	$109.00		Pending	12/19/13 7:35pm NHL Hockey 62 Detroit Red Wings (1st 60 min) -½ +109* <small>vs</small> Calgary Flames (1st 60 min)
217127511-1	12/19/13 1:34pm	$128.00	$100.00		Pending	12/19/13 7:05pm Reduced Hockey 52 Pittsburgh Penguins -128* <small>vs</small> Minnesota Wild
217127511-2	12/19/13 1:34pm	$100.00	$102.00		Pending	12/19/13 7:05pm Reduced Hockey 54 Toronto Maple Leafs +102* <small>vs</small> Phoenix Coyotes
217127511-3	12/19/13 1:34pm	$100.00	$102.00		Pending	12/19/13 8:35pm Reduced Hockey 68 Dallas Stars +102* <small>vs</small> Vancouver Canucks
217127511-4	12/19/13 1:34pm	$57.50	$50.00		Pending	12/19/13 10:35pm Reduced Hockey 72 Los Angeles Kings -115* <small>vs</small> San Jose Sharks

Sorry, I know no NBA, but I don't like either game or either total....if you are a junkie and need a pick, then take the OKC under 192, but it isn't strong enough for me to play it.

ALSO, I am going to start posting a quick synopsis of my record on the thread daily to make things easier for everyone. It will be taken directly from my records and matched to HigherElement's site for verification. If anyone sees a discrepancy please do not hesitate to let me know and it will be corrected.

Thread Totals:

122-106

+ $1232

POD

2-0

+ $300

[TC Woods]

Ok guys, here are today's picks:

217127556-1	12/19/13 1:35pm	$112.00	$100.00		Pending	12/19/13 7:05pm NHL Hockey 55 Boston Bruins (1st 60 min) -½ -112* <small>vs</small> Buffalo Sabres (1st 60 min)
217127556-2	12/19/13 1:35pm	$100.00	$109.00		Pending	12/19/13 7:35pm NHL Hockey 62 Detroit Red Wings (1st 60 min) -½ +109* <small>vs</small> Calgary Flames (1st 60 min)
217127511-1	12/19/13 1:34pm	$128.00	$100.00		Pending	12/19/13 7:05pm Reduced Hockey 52 Pittsburgh Penguins -128* <small>vs</small> Minnesota Wild
217127511-2	12/19/13 1:34pm	$100.00	$102.00		Pending	12/19/13 7:05pm Reduced Hockey 54 Toronto Maple Leafs +102* <small>vs</small> Phoenix Coyotes
217127511-3	12/19/13 1:34pm	$100.00	$102.00		Pending	12/19/13 8:35pm Reduced Hockey 68 Dallas Stars +102* <small>vs</small> Vancouver Canucks
217127511-4	12/19/13 1:34pm	$57.50	$50.00		Pending	12/19/13 10:35pm Reduced Hockey 72 Los Angeles Kings -115* <small>vs</small> San Jose Sharks

Sorry, I know no NBA, but I don't like either game or either total....if you are a junkie and need a pick, then take the OKC under 192, but it isn't strong enough for me to play it.

ALSO, I am going to start posting a quick synopsis of my record on the thread daily to make things easier for everyone. It will be taken directly from my records and matched to HigherElement's site for verification. If anyone sees a discrepancy please do not hesitate to let me know and it will be corrected.

Thread Totals:

122-106

+ $1232

POD

2-0

+ $300

Please excuse my ignorance, I'll only waste your time once with this...

POD today?