Reverse Line Movement in Panthers vs Patriots Game

[Big Bear]

Some Whale out there must have put 50K on Panthers.

What does everyone think about the RLM?

[BIGDAY]

OV/UN is set at 8... For threads started by BigBear for this game.

[jjgold]

[ChalkyDog]

$50K does not move a MNF game.

$50K by the right person, maybe. Key being the person not the amount of money.

[artyfudgepacker]

Good point chalky

[Sam Odom]

Sammy put 50K on -7 it will move to -6 1/2

[High3rEl3m3nt]

Not a good sign for Pat backers when the current godfather of sportbooks (bookmaker) moves to a key number.

[Big Bear]

Not a good sign for Pat backers when the current godfather of sportbooks (bookmaker) moves to a key number.

i got Patriots ML and i'm getting real nervous

[bo281]

Would take more than one 50k bet to move the line across every vegas book and all the offshores. That being said the Panthers are a better team and are sharp play here imo.

[LT Profits]

As I just posted in another thread, the sharps are on Carolina tonight but they are not always right. I am not going against Pats as a dog with Hoody having two weeks to prepare. Pass for me.

[Vinnie Paz]

$50K does not move a MNF game.

$50K by the right person, maybe. Key being the person not the amount of money.

Nominate this post. Chalky gets it.

[LT Profits]

Nominate this post. Chalky gets it.

It can be amended probably. 50K by JQP won't move line. 10K by known sharp would.

[jjgold]

I never believed in reverse line movement

Some say it works from time to time but again never going to profit daily with it

[BMoreBird]

i got Patriots ML and i'm getting real nervous

as sharp as the lines can be sometimes... the games still have to be played. nothing to worry about yet. gl

[Big Bear]

only reason RLM would matter is if the game is fixed.

i doubt Tom Brady wants to lose on purpose

[LT Profits]

I never believed in reverse line movement

Some say it works from time to time but again never going to profit daily with it

RLM DOES tell you who the sharps are on 90% of the time, nothing more. Remember that even the sharpest of the sharp are usually only around 55% ATS in NFL, and that 55% is based on the lines they got pre-move. In other words, RLM can give meaningful info, but it is after the fact unless you have a slow moving book.

[Big Bear]

I think what a lot of people fail to realize is that most
sharps aren't really that Sharp.

Whale is probably a better term.

[LT Profits]

I think what a lot of people fail to realize is that most
sharps aren't really that Sharp.

Whale is probably a better term.

"Sharp" fits guys that can sustain 55% on NFL spreads.

[Big Bear]

"Sharp" fits guys that can sustain 55% on NFL spreads.

yeah but people always talk about sharps moving the line

you could hit 55% but if you are betting $20 per game you aint moving the line

[jayc88]

most lines move because of money,
if game a has a limit of 10 000 and you bet at least 5000 it will move the line most of the time.

RLM tells you that value was on Carolina, if you bet it now at -3 value might be gone though

[kgindy]

They bet Carolina up to get Pats at +3. Carolina either wins by 1 or 2 or lose outright.

[sneakerhead]

Bear your threads are really annoying

Weren't you leaving pt?

[Big Bear]

Bear your threads are really annoying

Weren't you leaving pt?

nope changed my mind. Not going to let trolls like you and Vegas39 bother me.

If my threads are annoying you, nobody is making you leave a comment.

Try posting something relevant to sports.

[sneakerhead]

You don't need to make ten threads about one game that's all. Carry on

[LT Profits]

They bet Carolina up to get Pats at +3. Carolina either wins by 1 or 2 or lose outright.

I said 90%, the other 10% includes the head fakes. But for that to be the case here, the line would drop back to 2.5 later with those guys betting triple their original amounts on Pats +3. So stay tuned either way.

[ChalkyDog]

Where are people getting RLM on this one?

I see 54-46 split favoring the Pats, and the line only shifting by half a point against the public.

Are these numbers terribly off?

[SteveRyan]

Where are people getting RLM on this one?

I see 54-46 split favoring the Pats, and the line only shifting by half a point against the public.

Are these numbers terribly off?

Exactly. There is no RLM.

I don't know where he is seeing this.

[thetrinity]

what about the rlm on the ml bets

[rainman416]

"Sharp" fits guys that can sustain 55% on NFL spreads.

THANK YOU! And there it is folks! finally, a definition to put an end to the ambiguous use of the term "Sharp".. now there is a rule and it makes sense.. IF over 55% playing the spread in NFL.. you are a "Sharp" bettor... obviously that would have to be in a large-ish (3-5 season) sample to be official.. but this is now making sense...

No sarcasm.
Thank you LT.

[LT Profits]

Where are people getting RLM on this one?

I see 54-46 split favoring the Pats, and the line only shifting by half a point against the public.

Are these numbers terribly off?

Exactly. There is no RLM.

I don't know where he is seeing this.

64% on New England and the line moved up to the key 3.

[LT Profits]

Sports Options = 64%
Sports Insights = 68%

[LT Profits]

SBR = 59% of Bets and 60% of Money

[ChalkyDog]

I have always used 70's as a threshold percentage for RLM myself. Also a full point in movement.

I don't see either here, but maybe others differentiate on the parameters.

[High3rEl3m3nt]

Lt, tell us how SBR compiles their consensus betting data? Which books are participating?

[keel44]

Belicheck vs. Ron Rivera in preparation for teams each coach is not familiar with. Belicheck had longer to prepare as well. After saying that, I can only guess this match-up hinges on Cam Newton being a running QB. He is the ultimate wild card. Maybe the line movement is based on that.