Broncos @ Patriots on SNF November 24th

[k13]

Scoring comes from two places: Touchdowns and field goals.

Denver has averaged 5 TD's and 2 Field goals per game this season. NE averages 3 TD's and 2 FG's.

So you think that Denver is gonna be held to 3 TD's and like 1 FG or something? What are you saying?

I'm saying books don't care about any of that stuff and the line won't be Denver -6 unless Brady dies.

[LT Profits]

Let me ask you this. If NE was playing in Denver, what would the spread be?

That has nothing to do with the wager proposed, but Denver would be somewhere between -8 and -9.5.

[SteveRyan]

That has nothing to do with the wager proposed, but Denver would be somewhere between -8 and -9.5.

So Denver at home would be worth an entire 6 extra points?

Just so I understand you correctly, if the line opens at Denver -4.5 you send me the 500 points back (A push). If it opens softer than -4.5 (-4, -3.5, etc) then you keep the 500. Stronger than -4.5 you send me 500 + 500 more.

Correct?

Also, what book are we basing this off of? Vegas or off-shore?

[LT Profits]

So Denver at home would be worth an entire 6 extra points?

Just so I understand you correctly, if the line opens at Denver -4.5 you send me the 500 points back (A push). If it opens softer than -4.5 (-4, -3.5, etc) then you keep the 500. Stronger than -4.5 you send me 500 + 500 more.

Correct?

Also, what book are we basing this off of? Vegas or off-shore?

No, -4.5 I win, no pushes. I win at -4.5 or less, you win at -5 or more. Based on Pinny opener.

[Noleafclover]

How can he ship you 500 points as a non-pro, or did I misread it that you're betting points.

[LT Profits]

So Denver at home would be worth an entire 6 extra points?

Just so I understand you correctly, if the line opens at Denver -4.5 you send me the 500 points back (A push). If it opens softer than -4.5 (-4, -3.5, etc) then you keep the 500. Stronger than -4.5 you send me 500 + 500 more.

Correct?

Also, what book are we basing this off of? Vegas or off-shore?

How can he ship you 500 points as a non-pro, or did I misread it that you're betting points.

Crap I just realized SteveRyan is a non-pro. Oh well, I saved him 500 points. Line will be no higher than -3.5, more likely a juiced -3

[ChiLLx]

Patriots will never be +6 at home as long as hoodie is coach and Brady is QB. So many idiots here.

[Big Bang Clock]

Patriots will never be +6 at home as long as hoodie is coach and Brady is QB. So many idiots here.

This guys knows what he's talking about.

[byronbb]

Just-Bet.com has Den -2.5. Surprised. I was in the -4.5 camp.

[LT Profits]

Just-Bet.com has Den -2.5. Surprised. I was in the -4.5 camp.

Now I wish SteveRyan was a pro. Not that JustBet is worth much but real opener won't vary THAT much from that. I stand by my juiced 3 or standard 3.5.

[Goat Milk]

Denver averages a tad over 41 points per game. New England averages 26.

That's a 15 point swing and you guys think the spread will go all the way down to -3 just because it's in Foxborough?

It will not be any softer than -6

You're joking, right? Dude Denver won't be more than a 2 pt favorite.

[k13]

Going by the current line, Denver would only be -1.5/-3 in K.C...........

[byronbb]

Now I wish SteveRyan was a pro. Not that JustBet is worth much but real opener won't vary THAT much from that. I stand by my juiced 3 or standard 3.5.

Well JB opens very early, probably CRIS just trying to get an early sentiment, and many of their lines are very soft relative to closers, just load SBRODDS with JB as your NFL opener and you will see. -2.5 seems too low DEN -2.5 cannot last into next week IMO.

[LT Profits]

Well JB opens very early, probably CRIS just trying to get an early sentiment, and many of their lines are very soft relative to closers, just load SBRODDS with JB as your NFL opener and you will see. -2.5 seems too low DEN -2.5 cannot last into next week IMO.

Right but the wager I offered was based on opener, namely Pinny. It won't be higher than -3.5.

[k13]

Line is -1/-2.5,

Some people.........-6......-7.5.......seriously.....

[GunShard]

Teasing the Over.

[SteveRyan]

Line is -1/-2.5,

Some people.........-6......-7.5.......seriously.....

The -2.5 is a fukking gift. Broncos win by 10 minimum. Look at how these teams have been scoring. Patriots have not even cracked 30 points this season aside from last weeks game vs the lousy Steelers who put up 31. They beat KC by 10 and we know how awesome KC's defense is. What do you think will happen against one of the worst secondaries in the league? The line makes absolutely no penetrating sense what so ever. There is nothing that it can be based on. Opening lines are almost always based upon scoring averages and defensive rankings. Look...

New England @ Carolina -3

The total opened at 45. So what does that tell you?

Carolina is expected to score their average of 3 TD's and 1 FG = 24 points.
New England averages 3 TD's and 2 FG's = 27, but given Carolinas defense and home field advantage the books expect New England to either score 3 TD's and 0 FG's or 2 TD's and 2 FG's. Either way, the safer number is 21 points. Add them together and you get 45 with Carolina winning by 3.

New Orleans @ Atlanta +7

Again....look at the scoring potential.

Saints average 3 TD's and 2 or 3 FG's = 27 to 30 points.
Atlanta averages 2 TD's and 2 or 3 FG's = 20 to 23 points.
The books expect these teams to score their averages with 1 FG extra at the most per team.
Saints 30 Atlanta 23.
Saints cover by 7 and the total opened at 53.

Jacksonville @ Houston -10

Jax averages 1 TD and 1 FG for 10 points.
Houston averages 2 TD's and 2 FG's for 20 points.
So right there you have the -10. So where does the total of 43.5 come from?
The books expect the Jags to score 2 TD's because they have made some improvement and they are playing the lousy Texans. They also expect the Texans to score an extra TD against the lousy Jaguars.
Jacksonville 17 Houston 27 = 44.

And that's just how it is. That's how it ALWAYS is. So as far as Denver @ New England +2.5 it just does not add up in any way what so ever. The game must be a trap and I bet you anything it will be controlled by the refs. High profile games like this are often fixed. Every Pats fan in the country is going to bet their home team getting 2.5 points. Watch the refs penetrate each and every one of them in the a$$.

[k13]

If Broncos beat chiefs and Pats lose to the Panthers.

Pats beat the Broncos....

NFL worse than WWE.

[gasto]

Definitely is. You almost have to decipher the storyline. The NFL wants close games in the end. Good for advertisers, brings more revenue. Approx 80% of all NFL revenue is shared equally among all teams, dont matter whether you win or not, let alone cover the spread.

24 to 0 at half time is biggest chance to go all in on Patriots to win the second half in this case. Prime time game, the NFL will find ways to make it interesting. Refs are employees of the League. U think the honchos are staying away from the Refs, saying oh its ok for Patriots to be blown in a prime time game. Look at how many times Patriot receiver got physical but were never called for it.

Just dont be sentimental about this comedy. Pick your spot and try to read what the line is saying. Most times not all the time the lines tell the plot