*If* Michigan State advances to the Big Ten title game, they can beat Ohio State

[uxley.2]

Wait, what? Doesn't OSU rank like 81st in the nation in pass defense? Connor Cook has been pretty damn good since taking over the full-time reins at QB for MSU. He's thrown 17 TDs to just 4 INTs. MSU isn't an offensive juggernaut by any means, but given the fact that the Buckeyes have allowed 24 or more points five times in 12 games, it doesn't make much sense to say the Spartans won't be able to move the ball.

Ohio State ranks VERY poorly when talking about yards allowed through the air. Personally, I think that stat is overblown. Of course your pass defense will rank very poorly when you outscore teams by 170 points in the 1st quarter and your rush defense is extremely stout. What else are teams supposed to do besides pass in those situations?

The stat that is often overlooked is Ohio State's scoring defense. They give up very few points despite a disproportionate amount of passing yards allowed.

Ohio State has problems against a spread type of offense and duel threat QBs. MSU doesn't have either, so I struggling to find a scenario where they can keep pace with Ohio State's offense. They rely completely on defense. I'm not comfortable betting on a team with a great defense and sub par offense vs a team that averages 48 points per game.

There's a much greater chance of OSU running away with this game than there is of MSU covering, forget about winning. MSU just doesn't run the style of offense that is going to keep Urban awake at night.

[t-wizzle]

I want to take MSU but I'm waiting this one out. Need the week to think it over.

[ChalkyDog]

The trick for bettors is looking at this game objectively.

If you are not an OSU homer, you want OSU to lose, and then have most likely made MSU a better team in your mind.

Get that shit out of your head.

[I/O]

Says "GoBlue77."

How's your team doing, champ?

Good one Homer. But it's a teams attendance that really matters right?

Let's all move to Detroit, troll the gambling boards, and never bet.

[Big Bear]

Ohio state is a better team than some of yall give them credit for.

So what michigan almost beat them.

Michigan hates Ohio State and they were at home with 100,000 fans cheering them on.

Michigan has some talented football players and that was their super bowl.

michigan state on a neutral site is an easier game for them.

[KANSAS24]

Hell, okl. St can beat ohio st!

[No coincidences]

Ohio State ranks VERY poorly when talking about yards allowed through the air. Personally, I think that stat is overblown. Of course your pass defense will rank very poorly when you outscore teams by 170 points in the 1st quarter and your rush defense is extremely stout. What else are teams supposed to do besides pass in those situations?

The stat that is often overlooked is Ohio State's scoring defense. They give up very few points despite a disproportionate amount of passing yards allowed.

Ohio State has problems against a spread type of offense and duel threat QBs. MSU doesn't have either, so I struggling to find a scenario where they can keep pace with Ohio State's offense. They rely completely on defense. I'm not comfortable betting on a team with a great defense and sub par offense vs a team that averages 48 points per game.

There's a much greater chance of OSU running away with this game than there is of MSU covering, forget about winning. MSU just doesn't run the style of offense that is going to keep Urban awake at night.

I guess we'll just have to wait and see. OSU has feasted on weak competition. So has MSU. Hard to get a good read on the true colors of these teams given how bad the Big Ten was. If the Buckeyes want to beat MSU and go get blown out by Florida State in the title game, I guess that's cool.

[Big Bear]

The Buckeyes will beat FSU

[Big Bear]

The Buckeyes going to lay the wood on Jameis.

[billysink]

The true measure of a defensive side against the pass is and always has been this.

http://www.teamrankings.com/college-football/stat/opponent-average-team-passer-rating

[No coincidences]

The true measure of a defensive side against the pass is and always has been this.

http://www.teamrankings.com/college-...-passer-rating

True, billy, but again, MSU hasn't faced any standout mobile QB's this year -- and Braxton's one of the best in the biz.

[billysink]

True, billy, but again, MSU hasn't faced any standout mobile QB's this year -- and Braxton's one of the best in the biz.

Very little has changed schematically or statistically on either side since last years meeting. It is still the best barometer.

http://espn.go.com/ncf/recap?id=322730127

[No coincidences]

Very little has changed schematically or statistically on either side since last years meeting. It is still the best barometer.

http://espn.go.com/ncf/recap?id=322730127

Game was in EL on natural grass, and if I remember correctly, Miller still hurt them with big runs at key moments. I think Miller has matured as a passer this season, which makes him all the more dangerous when he does tuck and run. MSU is going to have its hands full.

[turbozed]

The trick for bettors is looking at this game objectively.

If you are not an OSU homer, you want OSU to lose, and then have most likely made MSU a better team in your mind.

Get that shit out of your head.

This is great advice. I've spent the past 5 minutes trying to come up with an angle of why MSU is clearly going to cover and you've hit the nail on the head. I WANT OSU to fail. Will hold off for now.

[turbozed]

True, billy, but again, MSU hasn't faced any standout mobile QB's this year -- and Braxton's one of the best in the biz.

Isn't there an "adjusted qb ranking" stat that takes this into account? I think ESPN has something like that.

[WorkHorse]

I wouldn't sell MSU short come Saturday. The Spartans have won 8 in a row and covered 6 of those. Also, during that run, the defense held 6 teams to 14 points or less.

OSU has issues on defense while MSU leads the nation in total defense, rushing defense (64 ypg) and are No. 4 in scoring defense at 11.8 per game.

I believe the Buckeyes are in for one hell of a fight. **Smart money will be on MS...squares on the favorite.

[MUHerd37]

I don't think Michigan St can produce enough offense to beat Ohio St. I'm not sure how much u should figure in OSUs performance last week. In the big house in a huge rivalry game. I think OSU comes out firing.

[jjgold]

Ohio St

Heavy ML

[Capper1124]

Tme MSU defense can shut down OSU. I think sparty wins outright

[Big Bear]

If the Buckeyes are losing at half time they would stupid to not to put in Guiton.

Guiton throws the best deep ball in the country.

[dick johnson]

Tme MSU defense can shut down OSU. I think sparty wins outright

Show me your bet.

[SugarDaddy]

Game was in EL on natural grass, and if I remember correctly, Miller still hurt them with big runs at key moments. I think Miller has matured as a passer this season, which makes him all the more dangerous when he does tuck and run. MSU is going to have its hands full.

Sparty dropped a lot of passes in that game

[suicidekings]

I think putting money on the Buckeyes to win by 6+ points is crazy.

Michigan State's defensive success comes about from operating out of base personnel on almost every down, and having the talent in the secondary to play one on one coverage, freeing up the front seven to focus heavily on the run, and having a very disciplined approach where everyone stays on their assignments. That's what you need to defend against a mobile QB. Carlos Hyde is definitely not going to have a big day in this game, and the Size/speed at linebacker will be effective in containing Braxton Miller if he bolts. Don't expect their 3rd/4th down conversion rates to be carrying them along in drives in this game.

[No coincidences]

What a performance. I am stunned.

Impressive, MSU. Very impressive.

[Deuce]

Nice call coiner. Had my doubt. You nailed it.

[BettingWizard]

Buckeyes will pound the sh1t out of Michigan St lol.... glad so many of you think they have a "shot"...in the words of Richie Incognito, "ni*gah please!"

[No coincidences]

Nice call coiner. Had my doubt. You nailed it.

I wavered when the motivation changed for this game, but they exceeded my expectations with this effort. Incredible.

Thanks, Deuce.

[Sam Odom]

How much $$$ did you win ?

[No coincidences]

How much $$$ did you win ?

Michigan State just advanced to the Rose Bowl for the first time since 1988.

I didn't win a penny, and I couldn't care less. Such a cool thing for all of my former Michiganders out there.

[HOT WINGS]

Buckeyes will pound the sh1t out of Michigan St lol.... glad so many of you think they have a "shot"...in the words of Richie Incognito, "ni*gah please!"

Boom little sister!

[Sam Odom]

I didn't win a penny...