!college basketball capping!

Louisvillekid1 · 10-22-13, 06:14 AM

fukk power ratings, stop trying to be the books, and use your eyes/mind to beat the books...

jjgold · 10-22-13, 08:31 AM

Power ratings mean nothing

Watching games has always been best way go cape

TPowell · 10-22-13, 04:44 PM

Originally posted by jjgold

Power ratings mean nothing

Watching games has always been best way go cape

so any couch potato watching sports has a gold mine huh?

TPowell · 10-22-13, 04:46 PM

Originally posted by Louisvillekid1

fukk power ratings, stop trying to be the books, and use your eyes/mind to beat the books...

.

If you don't use power ratings, you'll be clueless the first few weeks of the year in non conference play. A solid set of power ratings will CRUSH the books for a solid 2-3 weeks without any real work

ChalkyDog · 10-22-13, 04:57 PM

Originally posted by TPowell

.

If you don't use power ratings, you'll be clueless the first few weeks of the year in non conference play. A solid set of power ratings will CRUSH the books for a solid 2-3 weeks without any real work

Hard to find a good set of power ratings to start off the season.

You effectively have math guys trying to make a pre-season poll. We all know Pre-season polls aren't worth the paper their written on or even the internet space they take up.

If you find a solid power rating, please post it. However, more than likely the numbers you see posted by books will be close to what you will be given from a solid power rating, meaning I have a hard time seeing how someone would have a perceived edge using that resource.

There is this site that is trying to quantify every player in the nation and give them a rating, to include transfers. Hoopsnerd. I don't believe it has anything for new freshman, so the information there is not as precise for teams counting on freshman at multiple starting positions. However, that isn't to say his ratings for the players wont be useful. Combine that list with historic tempo and efficiencies of the given teams, and you might be able to calculate out a perceived edge on a line which was based on power ratings.

TPowell · 10-22-13, 05:08 PM

Originally posted by ChalkyDog

Hard to find a good set of power ratings to start off the season.

You effectively have math guys trying to make a pre-season poll. We all know Pre-season polls aren't worth the paper their written on or even the internet space they take up.

If you find a solid power rating, please post it. However, more than likely the numbers you see posted by books will be close to what you will be given from a solid power rating, meaning I have a hard time seeing how someone would have a perceived edge using that resource.

There is this site that is trying to quantify every player in the nation and give them a rating, to include transfers. Hoopsnerd. I don't believe it has anything for new freshman, so the information there is not as precise for teams counting on freshman at multiple starting positions. However, that isn't to say his ratings for the players wont be useful. Combine that list with historic tempo and efficiencies of the given teams, and you might be able to calculate out a perceived edge on a line which was based on power ratings.

My excel sheet has teams power ratings based off Sagarin the past 10 years as a PROGRAM, including number of years the coach has been there. I use a mix of power ratings including Sagarin to do that (I throw my own into the mix for the last 3 years). I also use an average tempo rating based on what the coach has had the past 7 years (the tempo from KenPom is a great starting point)

TPowell · 10-22-13, 05:09 PM

Originally posted by ChalkyDog

Hard to find a good set of power ratings to start off the season.

You effectively have math guys trying to make a pre-season poll. We all know Pre-season polls aren't worth the paper their written on or even the internet space they take up.

If you find a solid power rating, please post it. However, more than likely the numbers you see posted by books will be close to what you will be given from a solid power rating, meaning I have a hard time seeing how someone would have a perceived edge using that resource.

There is this site that is trying to quantify every player in the nation and give them a rating, to include transfers. Hoopsnerd. I don't believe it has anything for new freshman, so the information there is not as precise for teams counting on freshman at multiple starting positions. However, that isn't to say his ratings for the players wont be useful. Combine that list with historic tempo and efficiencies of the given teams, and you might be able to calculate out a perceived edge on a line which was based on power ratings.

I disagree, the early NCAAB lines are as EASY as anything you can bet IMO

Louisvillekid1 · 10-22-13, 05:11 PM

Ok let me rephrase, I'm just not that type of capper.

My power rankings are in my head, I know the skill sets of these kids and where the mismatches lie.

Most importantly I know these coaches, very well and their styles/background. (Most don't)

ChalkyDog · 10-22-13, 05:12 PM

Originally posted by TPowell

I disagree, the early NCAAB lines are as EASY as anything you can bet IMO

I don't disagree with that, because I tend to take a lot of points early with mid-majors.

I can't even point to a set of predictive power ratings that I would trust my money on.

Kenpom, sagarin, massey, teamrankings, etc. Maybe use them as a base guide for teams I am not familiar with, but going anything beyond that before they have numbers to make their ratings substantive is something I wouldn't suggest.

For christ sake, Kentucky is pre-season number 1. They were a shit NIT team last year. Where does one get reliable data to even attempt to predict how good they will be?

TPowell · 10-22-13, 05:17 PM

Originally posted by ChalkyDog

I don't disagree with that, because I tend to take a lot of points early with mid-majors.

I can't even point to a set of predictive power ratings that I would trust my money on.

Kenpom, sagarin, massey, teamrankings, etc. Maybe use them as a base guide for teams I am not familiar with, but going anything beyond that before they have numbers to make their ratings substantive is something I wouldn't suggest.

For christ sake, Kentucky is pre-season number 1. They were a shit NIT team last year. Where does one get reliable data to even attempt to predict how good they will be?

Personally, I put a projected rating and then a "?" for a team like UK or a team that lost EVERYBODY like Miami this year to remind myself they are a complete unknown and crapshoot

TPowell · 10-22-13, 05:18 PM

Originally posted by ChalkyDog

I don't disagree with that, because I tend to take a lot of points early with mid-majors.

I can't even point to a set of predictive power ratings that I would trust my money on.

Kenpom, sagarin, massey, teamrankings, etc. Maybe use them as a base guide for teams I am not familiar with, but going anything beyond that before they have numbers to make their ratings substantive is something I wouldn't suggest.

For christ sake, Kentucky is pre-season number 1. They were a shit NIT team last year. Where does one get reliable data to even attempt to predict how good they will be?

ALso, I meant use LAST YEARS power ratings as the BASE for this years and then adjust accordingly for players coming back and coaching changes. Should have explained that better. Just lazy today I guess