Does it make you Nervous to be on a public side of a game??

BIGDAY · 10-18-13, 10:59 AM

Who give a flyin fuk who the public is on...

Pound the winners.

lakerboy · 10-18-13, 10:59 AM

Take 10 public sides in a row and let us know how it worked.

747planes · 10-18-13, 11:01 AM

You cannot make money simply following a blind system like Pinny leans or fading the public or following the reverse line movement. You need to learn to pick the spots. So many clueless gamblers trying to be sharp and losing their ass off by fading the wrong public sides....and we have so many lamas that follow the obvious traps with the public side. the sharp sbr users rarely post. only a very few regular posters have some clue.

blankoblanco · 10-18-13, 11:04 AM

Originally posted by lakerboy

Take 10 public sides in a row and let us know how it worked.

Most likely outcome is it goes 5-5. If you're implying 10 public sides in a row would lose, then you're also saying "fading the public" on those plays automatically wins. Which of course isn't the case. In 2013 the books are sharp as a knife, they pinpoint the lines and don't give a damn which side the public takes on 1 game, if their lines are accurate enough then they auto-profit off the juice in the long-run (and really it's not that long, juice is so killer that they profit in a short time -- even when people on here make threads about the public "crushing" it lately, books are probably doing just fine)

What I just said should be common knowledge, but there are a lot of people who seem to think fading the public works. Maybe it worked in 2007 or something for some really small edge. But I know it doesn't work now. You have to cap games yourself, and they have to be games where you're very knowledgeable about the teams involved

Big Bear · 10-18-13, 11:15 AM

good points guys. this is very interesting to me.

i have mixed feelings on this issue. Maybe its paranoia.

Sometimes i feel like i shouldnt even look to see where the money is going.

konck · 10-18-13, 11:18 AM

Im on the public side less than 15% and I hate it when Im on that side. Perfect example Brock is on the puvlic side 93% The more you cap and research the numbers the more you will lean to the public. You have to go outside the box to go against the grain and find good reasons

jjgold · 10-18-13, 11:41 AM

Means nothing
If you follow any of it your a square

pinnacle420 · 10-18-13, 11:45 AM

Originally posted by BIGDAY

Who give a flyin fuk who the public is on...

Pound the winners.

bubblebuttluv · 10-18-13, 12:00 PM

Public, square, etc. is bullshit.

Just remember, GAMES ARE DECIDED ON THE FIELD OR COURT, NOT IN THE SPORTSBOOK.

Sure there can definately be point shaving in some college basketball, but if Tony One Thumb tries to approach Tom Brady about throwing a game, that won't go over well.

Just pick winners.

There is a reason I don't generally bet ATS, so I don't have to bitch about "The public side cost me, grrr!" and stupid shit like that.

tony_come · 10-18-13, 01:18 PM

Bear is part of the public

Big Bear · 10-18-13, 01:23 PM

Originally posted by tony_come

Bear is part of the public

ofcourse i am.

But thats not one public means when it come to betting.

The public means the "MAJORITY"

Louisvillekid1 · 10-18-13, 01:29 PM

Bear you make me nervous

Ghenghis Kahn · 10-18-13, 01:29 PM

over 70% yes.

otherwise yes.

Big Bear · 10-18-13, 01:39 PM

Originally posted by Louisvillekid1

Bear you make me nervous

jjgold · 10-18-13, 03:00 PM

Public has been winning

Much sharper right now than anyone

Jaug · 10-18-13, 03:16 PM

Public is the new sharp in NCAAF. Unreal

TheGuesser · 10-18-13, 08:02 PM

In the NFL, if you fade public sides where 80% or more of the public, from consensus sites, Hilton contest, etc, are on the same side, you will do very, very well over the long haul. Especially strong plays are when 80%+ are on one side, and the line moves against them.

k13 · 10-18-13, 08:03 PM

Not if a sharp line move goes with it.

thetrinity · 10-18-13, 10:38 PM

live moves way more important then who the public has for most part

ksnooksk · 10-18-13, 10:44 PM

Pinny leans was MONEY last two years in hoops. Unreal how easy it was. But, not sure its like that anymore.

ChalkyDog · 10-18-13, 10:47 PM

Only when the non-public play would bury a lot of teasers and ML parlays.

Other than that, it's impossible to care too much about public numbers. If you like a play, just because more than 50% of the people who bet on the same game like the same side doesn't make me rethink my position.

There is nothing (maybe a few?) things out there that betting it exclusively will yield a positive result for any length of time. There are a few things I watch for, and if those certain things line up, then you bet it.

Like the guy before me mentioned, if it is bonafide RLM, (i.e 70%+ on one side, and the book moves the line the other way), then you need to start paying attention or start looking for why the books took a position.

Also, most the numbers you see are not the amount of money on one or the other, just the amount of bets. Thus why smart money moves lines. 10,000 $20 wagers on Green Bay means shit, when Cleveland has a lot less bets but a shit more money on them.

Smoke · 10-18-13, 10:56 PM

Chalky relax guey

importmoon · 10-18-13, 11:15 PM

In real life if a book try to live on the vic they will starve to death... the truth is you just SWALLOW all the bets A+B total and parlay anything people bet. in a long run you make out like a bandit fuk the juice just swallow everything you will quadruple your profit the upside was you don't have to lose your sleep. I know a book he never watch sports on tv.he just watch the final score the next day.he drove a 120g jaguar.the downside is you have to be selective on your clients another word they better pay on Mondays...if they lost... and he never short his clients if they won

and I think it apply to VEGAS too...