Woodhead Take Your Bookie to the Woodshed Prop

[EaglesPhan36]

Chargers RB Danny Woodhead Total Receptions Over 5 [-130]
Matthews is going to play some tonight as he has reportedly been cleared from last week's concussion. Should not matter for this prop. Woodhead was getting heavy targets with or without Matthews as far as the passing game. Guy has been targeted at least seven times in the past four games. He's had at least five catches in all of those and is coming off a season-best ten catch performance. He's a great match-up for SD out of the backfield in their passing game because of the other weapons they have. Colts have been solid in their 3-4 scheme, but they have yet to deal with a playmaker out of the backfield in the passing game. Woodhead may not burn them for a lot of yardage, but if he is targeted 7-9 times ... fairly confident five catches will come.

[daneblazer]

I like it

[tatddy]

GL but I wouldn't make it a habit to take a player prop at -130

[daneblazer]

Bovada has it at -115 fwiw

[yisman]

heritage -115. I bet it. thanks for the tip

[TPowell]

UNDER 5.5 at -135 for me. Really exposed to Rivers tonight in props. Have him under 290.5 (line moved other way) and UNDER 2.5 TDS at (-125). As well as under 25.5 completions. One of my best is Gates NOT scoring a TD at -115

[EaglesPhan36]

GL but I wouldn't make it a habit to take a player prop at -130

Only at one book right now, so gotta pay what I pay. No different than any bet you make. Win and you don't sweat it. Obviously I'm not gonna take something inflated like -150 or -160, but -130 isn't exactly a wallet breaking expense.

[TPowell]

GL but I wouldn't make it a habit to take a player prop at -130

LMAO what kind of idiotic sense does that make? I have Rivers throwing A INT at -190. I'll make that bet every day of the week and quit my job

[Drew0585]

I like Woodhead rushing+receiving yards over 74.5 @ -125. Think he gets that easy.

[l7ustin]

I could see 7 catches for 75 yards with 20 rushing yards, good luck

[yisman]

I also tried receiving yards over 45.5 at -115

[EaglesPhan36]

LMAO what kind of idiotic sense does that make? I have Rivers throwing A INT at -190. I'll make that bet every day of the week and quit my job

I didn't look this week, is Eli running over -300 yet on that prop?

[Tboonepickem]

Mon 10/14		4589 IND wins every quarter		<input id="editx" name="M1_140" size="4" style="font-size: 1em; color: rgb(68, 68, 68);"> +2150
8:35PM		4590 SD wins or ties a quarter		<input id="editx" name="M2_140" size="4" style="font-size: 1em; color: rgb(68, 68, 68);"> -4300

Oh noo this is soo tempting. putting $50 on it.

[Drew0585]

Philip Rivers over 2.5 TDs +160.

[Tboonepickem]

tailing Woodhead Prop over 45 1/2 rec yards. Also on colts win every quarter for 100 to win 2150. stupid bet but its makes for a good shouting match between me and my TV

[tatddy]

LMAO what kind of idiotic sense does that make? I have Rivers throwing A INT at -190. I'll make that bet every day of the week and quit my job

Let me know how that works out for you.

[JMon]

Looks good!

[tatddy]

Only at one book right now, so gotta pay what I pay. No different than any bet you make. Win and you don't sweat it. Obviously I'm not gonna take something inflated like -150 or -160, but -130 isn't exactly a wallet breaking expense.

Understandable. GL and hope you hit it. Since props are usually such a low limit at online shops I always keep a small balance at 2-3 books just for props/live betting because they are so slow to move the lines on them. Keep cashouts small as well there. Over time it really helps.

[jjgold]

The knock on props is the juice, many experts think that is why you cannot beat them

[beermankirk]

Only losers pay juice....

Winners get wings!

[BigDeem5]

Heritage moved it from -115 to -130, i got it at -130 and liked this all day, sucker for waiting to pay 15 cents juice

[TPowell]

Let me know how that works out for you.

+EV play, doesn't matter clown

[tatddy]

+EV play, doesn't matter clown

From what I can gather by the words you type, I'd say that you don't even have a rudimentary grasp of statistical analysis.

[No coincidences]

+EV play, doesn't matter clown

A +EV play on a -190 prop?

WTF are you talking about?

[BigDeem5]

I don't know how a prop -190 can just be -EV b/c of juice.

If you could get the Packers on Sunday this week, -190 versus the Browns that is +EV, they should win about 85% of the time and your paying 1.9 - 1 on your money.

It doesn't make a PLAY -/+ EV just based on the juice, if juice at all.

It is +EV if it hits X amt of the time based on your juice.

[TPowell]

From what I can gather by the words you type, I'd say that you don't even have a rudimentary grasp of statistical analysis.

I'd say my degrees in financial analysis suggest otherwise. What kind of math could you use to justify saying Phillips Rivers throws less than 1.4 (or whatever the breakeven is, I'm too lazy to look it up after pricing all those props earlier) INT's in this game

[TPowell]

A +EV play on a -190 prop?

WTF are you talking about?

if the prop should be priced at -300 or -400 it should be +EV. Not complicated, common no coin

[TPowell]

I don't know how a prop -190 can just be -EV b/c of juice.

If you could get the Packers on Sunday this week, -190 versus the Browns that is +EV, they should win about 85% of the time and your paying 1.9 - 1 on your money.

It doesn't make a PLAY -/+ EV just based on the juice, if juice at all.

It is +EV if it hits X amt of the time based on your juice.

we have a winner. good call pal

[teaserpleaser]

wait for it

[No coincidences]

if the prop should be priced at -300 or -400 it should be +EV. Not complicated, common no coin

OK, this is the only time you'll see me defending Rivers, so here goes nothing.

He has the second best QB rating in the league right now. He's thrown five picks, but three came in Week 1.

If you want to take that gamble and say that -190 is +EV in this situation, be my guest.

[tatddy]

if the prop should be priced at -300 or -400 it should be +EV. Not complicated, common no coin

So Rivers has failed to throw a pick in 2 of 5 games so far and did not throw a pick in 7 out of 16 games in 2012.

But you think it should be -350 to be priced correctly and would max bet -190 every week if it was avail and pay your rent.

I've wasted enough time on you as it is. Done here.

[No coincidences]

I don't know how a prop -190 can just be -EV b/c of juice.

If you could get the Packers on Sunday this week, -190 versus the Browns that is +EV, they should win about 85% of the time and your paying 1.9 - 1 on your money.

It doesn't make a PLAY -/+ EV just based on the juice, if juice at all.

It is +EV if it hits X amt of the time based on your juice.

I didn't say that -- I said -190 on Rivers throwing a PK is not a good bet, given how he has played in recent weeks.

[No coincidences]

So Rivers has failed to throw a pick in 2 of 5 games so far and did not throw a pick in 7 out of 16 games in 2012.

But you think it should be -350 to be priced correctly and would max bet -190 every week if it was avail and pay your rent.

I've wasted enough time on you as it is. Done here.

Exactly.

[TPowell]

OK, this is the only time you'll see me defending Rivers, so here goes nothing.

He has the second best QB rating in the league right now. He's thrown five picks, but three came Week 1.

If you want to take that gamble and say that -190 is +EV in this situation, be my guest.

who cares when and where the picks came from? He's thrown 5 picks in 5 games. That is the important stat.

[TPowell]

So Rivers has failed to throw a pick in 2 of 5 games so far and did not throw a pick in 7 out of 16 games in 2012.

But you think it should be -350 to be priced correctly and would max bet -190 every week if it was avail and pay your rent.

I've wasted enough time on you as it is. Done here.

Dumb logic, apparently not everybody understands pricing on SBR, shocking