Are gamblers who do a ton of legwork smart or suckers?

[NYSportsGuy210]

I was thinking about this tonight after a ridiculous weekend in which I somehow cashed big plays on Penn State and the Patriots and another on the Red Sox. None of them really had any business cashing; I suppose you could say PSU and NE were in control for more of the game than not, but they were both dead in the water near the end until their opponents fvcked it all up. Boston, meanwhile, was just a total fluke.

Anyway, between the three plays, I had close to a $1,000 swing -- crazy for a guy who bets $20 per unit. So I'm sitting here looking at my account balance thinking about being on the "right" side of the "wrong" play three times. This, one week after having Northwestern and a bunch of other shitty beats that had me wondering WTF I was doing, feeling like I was on the "wrong" side of the "right" play.

I know bettors who break down a game every which way. They have systems, study matchups, analyze data, trends, etc. I put a lot of time into capping games, but these guys are workaholics when it comes to research and doing their homework. I don't go anywhere near that far. Sometimes I feel like I should. Sometimes I think it's a huge waste of time.

The smart response here is probably to not worry as much about the end result -- that in the long run, if you put the time in and don't take short cuts, you will be rewarded for making the right play more often than not. The longer I'm in this game, though, the more I question and wonder if you can legitimately be a "sports investor," as LTA liked to call it back in the day, as opposed to a guy who is either a lucky schmuck or an unlucky sonofabitch on any given play no matter how much effort you put into preparing for a bet.

Anyway....

I find it funny that you are actually asking this question considering you do a "ton of leg work" and still lose for the most part.

[Gonz312]

I think its a waste of time...the number of times I read someones long write up and their pick is right but the angles, scenarios, analysis is completely wrong tells me that much. Has to be close to 80% of the time thats the case.

Keep it simple

[No coincidences]

That's all part of the game.

The part you don't seem to get is that nothing is ever supposed to happen.

True, but there is typically a "right" and a "wrong" side to an end result -- which doesn't always coincide with what actually happens at the end of a game. In other words, the stuff you just can't and will never handicap.

I keep bringing up the Northwestern example, but there have been quite a few games recently -- more than you would really anticipate -- where you can have a game handicapped perfectly and some total bullshit rips your ticket in half. At what point does the law of diminishing returns come into play for guys who are treating this as an investment vs. a hobby?

That's why I never get too torn up over a bullshit loss, and at the same time, can't imagine bettors who have real, big, hard-earned money on the line.

[Inkwell77]

Every market is very different.

It took me a while to realize this.

Research what the market you are playing is like.
Do lines move more often towards the favorite? Do lines move more often towards the dog? Do headfakes happen a lot? etc.

[No coincidences]

I find it funny that you are actually asking this question considering you do a "ton of leg work" and still lose for the most part.

I don't and I don't, but thanks for playing.

And if you want to prove yourself wrong, go ahead and look up my plays/threads.

You really struggle with this, don't you?

[Vinnie Paz]

Isn't what you're describing in your above posts just variance? Bad beats won't go away regardless of which side you're on--its gambling. Luck is involved no matter what. Crunch numbers till your eyes bleed, but sometimes the complete opposite ends up occurring. It's all a part of the game, and one of the reasons you're supposed to wager small %s of your given bankroll--to protect yourself from these swings/occurrences.

In regards to the thread title--I'd say no you're not a sucker for studying game/team stats. But yes every # we look at is already incorporated in the line--thing is not all lines are created accurate. That's our job to sniff those ones out and determine based off the number crunching whether there's an edge or not.

I can relate to what you're trying to get at coin(I think?), guys at work who know nothing at all come in Monday morning pounding their chest over hitting some ridiculous 7 team parlay and act like theyve got it all figured out. Meanwhile, youve studied your ass off just to break even or go 3-5. Just makes everything feel like a big waste of time when some guys are winning putting in no work at all.

[Louisvillekid1]

Working mans a sucker

Mickey Mantle won't pay your rent

I'd rather go to the other side

[No coincidences]

Isn't what you're describing in your above posts just variance? Bad beats won't go away regardless of which side you're on--its gambling. Luck is involved no matter what. Crunch numbers till your eyes bleed, but sometimes the complete opposite ends up occurring. It's all a part of the game, and one of the reasons you're supposed to wager small %s of your given bankroll--to protect yourself from these swings/occurrences.

In regards to the thread title--I'd say no you're not a sucker for studying game/team stats. But yes every # we look at is already incorporated in the line--thing is not all lines are created accurate. That's our job to sniff those ones out and determine based off the number crunching whether there's an edge or not.

I can relate to what you're trying to get at coin(I think?), guys at work who know nothing at all come in Monday morning pounding their chest over hitting some ridiculous 7 team parlay and act like theyve got it all figured out. Meanwhile, youve studied your ass off just to break even or go 3-5. Just makes everything feel like a big waste of time when some guys are winning putting in no work at all.

Great post. I especially like the bolded part.

[No coincidences]

Working mans a sucker

Mickey Mantle won't pay your rent

I'd rather go to the other side

[5mike5]

It works great for me, But im talking NASCAR