NCAAF Week 8 Opening Line Discussion

**getthekook** · 10-16-13, 02:16 AM

Originally posted by JabooFootball

I think Miami is good, but they haven't played a single top 40 passing team let's be real!

All im saying is if you've followed college football you know alot of teams are overrated this year..we'll see what miami does vs unc's passing attack

**TexasJayhawk** · 10-16-13, 02:31 AM

Speaking of overrated...Does anyone think Louisville (-13) v. UCF is a bit of a stretch? I mean Louisville has played virtually nobody this year (Strength of Schedule...#127 according to Football Outsiders) and I'd argue UCF will be their toughest competition as of now.
Sure S. Carolina wasn't 100% and Penn State isn't all that this year, but they're a hell of lot more competitive than any team Louisville has played this year.
When Ville faced a mediocre team (Rutgers) they couldn't cover the 19 points and they BARELY covered the 13 points v. Kentucky...

**getthekook** · 10-16-13, 02:33 AM

yesss^^^^

**Ralphie Halves** · 10-16-13, 07:19 AM

Purdue is bad, but MichSt isn't 26 pts better than anyone right now IMO. Purdue has been surprising in spots.

Not sold on Syracuse, even though they did play their asses off last week. GT -7 at home is a play for me.

South Carolina could easily blow out Tennessee. Tennessee has no chance of blowing out SC. Yet the line is only one TD.

Miami Ohio is left for dead, but who has the balls to lay over a TD with Akron on the road???

North Texas has been good to me this year, but I'm passing this week.

UNLV has the offense to keep pace with Fresno State, and has done really well at making 2nd half adjustments defensively as of late. Remember, the only reason Hawai'i scored at all in the 2nd half last game is because Hauck was a retard and sat his starters. He won't do that again. I liked the line at +21, I love it at +24.5 now.

**Pin Fish** · 10-16-13, 09:21 AM

Originally posted by Koldazzice

"Washington/ASU gonna break the LED's on the scoreboard"

I am all over this game!!! This game may be in the high 40's/50's at the half!

I have my "max" early spread bet in on over 66. I will also be looking to add how much I have not yet decided. I can assure you this will be my biggest play of the week.

Wash 51 - Zona st 47 in overtime

Curious how the score could ever be 51-47 in an overtime game...........................

**thetrinity** · 10-16-13, 09:26 AM

oregon is a squares wet dream (blowing teams out with video game scores every week) and ga st is a sharps wet dream (awful record but quietly playing better every game and covering)

**Big Bear** · 10-16-13, 09:35 AM

What do you guys think of

Stanford -6 over UCLA
and

Ohio state -17 over Iowa

Stanford should be out for blood here after 2 horribly
played games.

Ohio State is going to do their very best to run up the
score as much as possible in every game from here on out.

**Fred The Hammer** · 10-16-13, 09:38 AM

Purdue is bad, but MichSt isn't 26 pts better than anyone right now IMO. Purdue has been surprising in spots.

Yeah they are......Sparty's D is much better than Nebraska's and Purdue was less than a minute from being shutout. Purdue had Rob Henry at QB earlier....and he has alot of experience and could atleast run. Problem is...he screwed up so bad vs N. Illinois that they went with a true fresh QB (severe growing pains) and they lost one of their top receivers on top of that.

Michigan State 41-10 just because Sparty goes soft 2nd half. I don't like laying that many pts to anyone but there's a good chance MS goes Over 42.5 themselves.

**RavensFan2k3** · 10-16-13, 09:44 AM

Originally posted by JRoZe410

So far im liking
Duke +3 vs UVA
Oregon St -10 vs Cal
Notre Dame -3 vs USC
Wyoming -7 vs Colo St
Florida -3 vs Mizzou

Wyoming stood stood out to me too, but why is it only -7?

**Louisvillekid1** · 10-16-13, 10:06 AM

I still would love to know this BYU/Houston total is 63...

**Big Bear** · 10-16-13, 10:17 AM

Originally posted by Louisvillekid1

I still would love to know this BYU/Houston total is 63...

BYU and Houston?

how does anyone know anything about either of those
teams?

**Vegas39** · 10-16-13, 10:34 AM

Originally posted by Big Bear

BYU and Houston?

how does anyone know anything about either of those
teams?

Called watching games

**747planes** · 10-16-13, 10:37 AM

West Virginia and the points and moneyline is the best bet on the board. Sucks for people who missed out on +8 to +7 numbers but it is still the best play.

**747planes** · 10-16-13, 10:40 AM

Originally posted by Louisvillekid1

I still would love to know this BYU/Houston total is 63...

Both teams can move the ball and get first downs, it will come down to clock management. Maybe the books think (know) that Houston will go with hurry up offense.

**ChalkyDog** · 10-16-13, 12:39 PM

Originally posted by Pin Fish

Curious how the score could ever be 51-47 in an overtime game...........................

At first I assumed it was first team scores a FG, second scores a TD - but I don't think they'd have to kick a FG for the 4 point win at that point.

**JabooFootball** · 10-16-13, 01:23 PM

Originally posted by Louisvillekid1

I still would love to know this BYU/Houston total is 63...

I tried really hard to find a lean to go devils advocate on you with. Couldnt find a convincing one. One little tidbit is this- Teams that put up over 225 passing yards on houston double the avg. scoring on them of teams that dont. That still doesnt mean take the over... The most points BYU has allowed per game are 21, the most theyve scored is 40. This is strange, indeed.

**Louisvillekid1** · 10-16-13, 01:49 PM

Originally posted by Big Bear

BYU and Houston?

how does anyone know anything about either of those
teams?

Originally posted by Vegas39

Called watching games

Posts like this just shows why we can find some value in under the radar type games.

**Louisvillekid1** · 10-16-13, 01:50 PM

Originally posted by JabooFootball

I tried really hard to find a lean to go devils advocate on you with. Couldnt find a convincing one. One little tidbit is this- Teams that put up over 225 passing yards on houston double the avg. scoring on them of teams that dont. That still doesnt mean take the over... The most points BYU has allowed per game are 21, the most theyve scored is 40. This is strange, indeed.

Both give up under 20 a game and Houston is not the "Houston" the public thinks they are lighting up the scoreboard. Also BYU defense is very good as you know.

I went 3x on this play at 63 (second 3x play, North Texas last week was first)

I saw line went to 62/62.5 afterwards

**Rangers901** · 10-16-13, 02:07 PM

Auburn ML +390 is the best bet on the board this week.

**Louisvillekid1** · 10-16-13, 02:44 PM

Originally posted by Rangers901

Auburn ML +390 is the best bet on the board this week.

Auburn +13 is my last game as of now I'm strongly considering.

I don't think they have enough firepower to win, but who needs firepower against that A&M Defense

**Louisvillekid1** · 10-16-13, 02:46 PM

Originally posted by Louisvillekid1

Ok,

This is what I'm rolling with this week (Still looking at a few games but this is most likely it)

ULL +147 1x W
Northwestern -12.5 (not sure if 1x or 2x depending on injuries)
Indiana/Michigan O 67 1x
BYU/Houston u 63 3x
Washington/Arizona St O 65.5 2x
Auburn +12.5 1x

I haven't locked in NW yet because I need to see the Injury report later in week, just hope line doesnt go to 14.

Will post some info later in week on why.

26-12 + 23.44 units on year after La LA W

http://forum.sbrforum.com/college-fo...7-card-p2.html

Fukk it I'm adding Auburn +12.5 1x

**Louisvillekid1** · 10-16-13, 02:52 PM

Strong Lean on USC/ND

Here is what I did for SBR Points

Ticket#:2238582 Oct 19 06:00 PM	Oct 15 01:09 PM	CFB	STRAIGHT BET [355] TOTAL o65½-110 (WASHINGTON vrs ARIZONA STATE)	1000.00 / 909.09
Ticket#:2239122 Oct 15 08:00 PM Oct 15 08:00 PM Oct 19 12:00 PM Oct 19 03:30 PM Oct 19 06:00 PM	Oct 15 06:03 PM	CFB CFB CFB CFB CFB	PARLAY (5 TEAMS) (FP) [301] UL LAFAYETTE +3-105 [302] TOTAL u62-110 (UL LAFAYETTE vrs WESTERN KENTUCK) [330] NORTHWESTERN -12½-110 [343] TOTAL o67-110 (INDIANA vrs MICHIGAN) [355] TOTAL o65½-110 (WASHINGTON vrs ARIZONA STATE)	0.00 / 7120.06
Ticket#:2239505 Oct 19 03:30 PM	Oct 16 02:01 AM	CFB	STRAIGHT BET [368] TOTAL u63-110 (BRIGHAM YOUNG vrs HOUSTON)	1000.00 / 909.09
Ticket#:2239795 Oct 19 03:30 PM Oct 19 03:30 PM Oct 19 07:30 PM	Oct 16 03:52 PM	CFB CFB CFB	PARLAY (3 TEAMS) (FP) [339] AUBURN +12½-110 [368] TOTAL u62½-111 (BRIGHAM YOUNG vrs HOUSTON) [384] TOTAL u50½-110 (SOUTHERN CALIFO vrs NOTRE DAME)	0.00 / 1731.18

**Louisvillekid1** · 10-16-13, 02:58 PM

Florida and Mizzouri should be very low scoring as well

**Big Bear** · 10-16-13, 03:45 PM

Originally posted by Louisvillekid1

Florida and Mizzouri should be very low scoring as well

didnt mizzou hang 40 on georgia?

and that was on the road.

i dont fukk with totals but i may hammer mizzou here

**Louisvillekid1** · 10-16-13, 03:52 PM

Guey franklin is out and they are playing Florida

have you watched UF play defense?

have you watched UGA play defense?

**Big Bear** · 10-16-13, 03:56 PM

i will tail your BYU / HOUston under and UW/ ASU over

**thetrinity** · 10-16-13, 03:58 PM

kid brings up a good point bout houston byu, houston is probably still seen as a run and gun type team by the public, byu maybe even so as well.

id think that byu will try and control the ball on offense, which plays into the under even more, also would think houston would have a hard time scoring tds in the redzone.

**Louisvillekid1** · 10-16-13, 04:01 PM

Originally posted by thetrinity

kid brings up a good point bout houston byu, houston is probably still seen as a run and gun type team by the public, byu maybe even so as well.

id think that byu will try and control the ball on offense, which plays into the under even more, also would think houston would have a hard time scoring tds in the redzone.

Look at post #1 in this thread about the Houston BYU game

63

I don't get it, What do we get on alt line u 42.5? haha

If they get over 63 I'll happily hand my 3 units over, proceed to bend over and ask for another

**Huckleberry Pig** · 10-16-13, 04:02 PM

Originally posted by Louisvillekid1

Florida and Mizzouri should be very low scoring as well

like florida and the under here

**Ralphie Halves** · 10-16-13, 04:14 PM

Originally posted by RavensFan2k3

Wyoming stood stood out to me too, but why is it only -7?

Big rivalry game. Wyoming has slipped a bit as of late.

**JabooFootball** · 10-16-13, 04:15 PM

The more I look at UM/UNC the more I think UNC is in full blown defensive meltdown and UM will be good for 500 total yards of offense. Georgia Tech- 370 Rush 107 Pass, Eastern Carolina- 227 Rush 376 Pass, Virginia Tech 48 Rush, 293 Pass. Thats what UNC has allowed the last 3 weeks. I hate jumping on a more than TD fav on the road on Thur but this might be the time to do it.

**Louisvillekid1** · 10-16-13, 04:19 PM

Originally posted by Ralphie Halves

Big rivalry game. Wyoming has slipped a bit as of late.

North Texas does look easy again this week, but stayed away like you...

Enjoy your read's raloh

**Louisvillekid1** · 10-16-13, 04:20 PM

Originally posted by JabooFootball

The more I look at UM/UNC the more I think UNC is in full blown defensive meltdown and UM will be good for 500 total yards of offense. Georgia Tech- 370 Rush 107 Pass, Eastern Carolina- 227 Rush 376 Pass, Virginia Tech 48 Rush, 293 Pass. Thats what UNC has allowed the last 3 weeks. I hate jumping on a more than TD fav on the road on Thur but this might be the time to do it.

Very possible, I just can't lay those points on the road in conference on thursday night

**thetrinity** · 10-16-13, 04:36 PM

unc has been a massive underachiever this season, i thought they were an acc sleeper and they have been asleep all year.

the u has probably played over their heads so far, hard to back the heels though in this one.

the carolina defense has been pretty bad this season but 4 or their 5 games have went under, interesting.

**manny24** · 10-16-13, 05:07 PM

nice thread lkid1er good info in here!

a little confusing not remembering which ghosts were yours but still

pound the book this weekend guey!