Buried...

[BigDeem5]

Just woke up.

Feeling focused.

[Smoke]

Sum yung guey

[Big Bear]

Deemer,

You're a good capper,

Learn bankroll management and discipline and you'll be ok.

is there a book on this?

[The Kraken]

Checking in... All but lost one out yesterday. I'll save you guys the final #'s as half wouldn't believe it and the other half would get sick. Got the rest riding tonight on the Bronco's -15

Only play I remember hitting was some prop on the Jags scoring a TD. It was maxed out, too bad limits killed any chance to offsest my losses.

Sunday. Bloody. Sunday

[Smoke]

I got a gift line at heritage yesterday it was the seahawks team total over 10.5 for 2nd half at +150 its almost like stealing

[Russian Rocket]

is there a book on this?

yeah there is book with one page in it, that says "Don't bet more than 2% of your BR on a single bet and don't chase it"

[Ghenghis Kahn]

That cappers never learn. Until teams are interconnected through schedule there is no real read for most. Public perception is based on little more than last years events and a meaningless preseason.

This year Offensive Line play is more of a handicapping factor and the run game will be paramount for many teams. The pass game will be less weighted in the overall scheme of things. The evolution of many team's offensive numbers is in flux due to personnel changes and development of a new generation of QB's and the aging of others, as well as massive changes to receiving corps and aging or injured offensive lines. Those teams with the most continuity and carry over from last season have a distinct advantage which is not necessarily indicative of skill.

Strength of schedule numbers are not yet defined. That is an extremely key number in both NCAAFB and NFL.

Linebacker play is still catching up in weighting but is getting there. Many teams are vulnerable in the flats and yards per carry stats on offense are still skewed. The importance of the nose tackle continues to be overlooked. The Niners do no look the same with Dorsey in for the departed Sapoaga, for example.

There are just so many changes year to year it is advantageous for most to let the numbers develop some backbone. There are those who can get a preliminary feel and have success early but get caught up in what they have seen and flounder later.

The game changes every week due to personnel development, continuity and opponent game plan. I still don't see enough cappers that understand how the game is played and that being able to determine what a team my or may not do any given week in game planning is key. Numbers only mean so much here.

There is a lot of good information out there. It takes a lot of time to cap this game right. Most don't put the time in.

what are your thoughts on teams going for it on 4th and 1s rather than kicking fgs being up by 3 late in the 4th quarter fukking up spreads?

like the packers and the falcons? why is this becoming a trend?

[billysink]

what are your thoughts on teams going for it on 4th and 1s rather than kicking fgs being up by 3 late in the 4th quarter fukking up spreads?

like the packers and the falcons? why is this becoming a trend?

Not sure there Khaner. Did not see the games at that point but how much time left? Does not sound like good strategy for a road team.

[Ghenghis Kahn]

little over 3 minutes left for gb and less than that for atl.

obviously both teams don't trust their defenses but they are trusting too much on their offense imo.

i'm not a math guy but i would like some math geek to come up with the percentages for both scenarios.

i would think kicking the fg and being up by 6 has a better chance for a team to win than going for it on 4th.

but i could be wrong though...