Mayweather betting ideas.

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  • SBR_John
    SBR Posting Legend
    • 07-12-05
    • 16471

    #1
    Mayweather betting ideas.
    Two scenarios I'm going to throw out; 1. Mayweather by KO 2. Alvarez by decision

    Mayweather is -160 to win by decision
    Alvarez is +500 to win by KO

    $1600 to win $1000 on Mayweather by decision
    $ 400 to win $2000 on alvarez to win by KO
    That's a very square strategy in that you're basically betting $2000 to win $600 or $400 best case. But it gives you the two most probable outomes all be it at a very short price.

    The bet that EVERYONE has thrown out as simply not possible is worth a look. Alvarez to win by decision +515. If they fought 5 times Alvarez would probably win at least one by decision(he may win all 5). This bet actually has a lot of value no matter how you cap the fight. Of course how many times have we all said "no way the judges give it to alvarez if it goes the distance"...including myself. Think about it..if Alvarez pounds him and gets a knockdown or two he will get the decision. Mayweather is not Sugar Ray Leonard or some other adorned fighter(except by Lou). If you play this bet you would want to throw a bet of 30% of the total bet on Alvarez by KO which is also priced at +520ish. Good luck.
  • Grits n' Gravy
    Restricted User
    • 06-10-10
    • 13024

    #2
    just loaded up on canelo at betislands.
    Comment
    • MD
      SBR Hall of Famer
      • 01-31-12
      • 9728

      #3
      This is one of the worst attempts at logic I've seen on SBR. No offence.
      Comment
      • ApricotSinner32
        Restricted User
        • 11-28-10
        • 10648

        #4
        I agree with walker canelo by decision very possible.
        Comment
        • NunyaBidness
          SBR Hall of Famer
          • 07-26-09
          • 9345

          #5
          Yes, you should definitely bet Alvarez by Decision, hedged with Alvarez by KO.

          Also, hedge that with Mayweather decision, and a smaller hedge on Mayweather by KO.

          Basically, win, win, win, win.
          Comment
          • jjgold
            SBR Aristocracy
            • 07-20-05
            • 388179

            #6
            Pretty good chance fight might be rigged ans Mayweather loses

            Much more money in it for both meaning a re match

            If History means more than money to Floyd then he might win

            Think out of the box like me
            Comment
            • Grits n' Gravy
              Restricted User
              • 06-10-10
              • 13024

              #7
              Originally posted by jjgold
              Pretty good chance fight might be rigged ans Mayweather loses

              Much more money in it for both meaning a re match

              If History means more than money to Floyd then he might win

              Think out of the box like me
              floyd cares more about 0 losses than the payday. he gets paid no matter who he fights.
              Comment
              • zooom
                SBR Sharp
                • 09-02-13
                • 345

                #8
                Originally posted by MD
                This is the one of the worst attempts at logic I've seen on SBR. No offence.
                ditto
                Comment
                • yisman
                  SBR Aristocracy
                  • 09-01-08
                  • 75682

                  #9
                  If they fought 5 times Alvarez would probably win at least one by decision(he may win all 5).
                  If they fought 5 times, you think Alvarez may win all five by decision?

                  Originally posted by NunyaBidness
                  Yes, you should definitely bet Alvarez by Decision, hedged with Alvarez by KO.

                  Also, hedge that with Mayweather decision, and a smaller hedge on Mayweather by KO.

                  Basically, win, win, win, win.
                  [quote=jjgold;5683305]I win again like usual
                  [/quote]

                  [quote=Whippit;7921056]miami won't lose a single eastern conference game through end of season[/quote]
                  Comment
                  • Thor4140
                    SBR Posting Legend
                    • 02-09-08
                    • 22296

                    #10
                    Originally posted by MD
                    This is one of the worst attempts at logic I've seen on SBR. No offence.
                    u should see some of his political views
                    Comment
                    • SBR_John
                      SBR Posting Legend
                      • 07-12-05
                      • 16471

                      #11
                      You ditto guys are welcome to offer your cough* cough* sharp opinions. Crickets time...
                      Comment
                      • iifold
                        SBR Posting Legend
                        • 04-25-10
                        • 11111

                        #12
                        John, Poster Pabinator is a huge boxing fan...

                        You should unban him and see what he thinks about the fight!!
                        Comment
                        • MD
                          SBR Hall of Famer
                          • 01-31-12
                          • 9728

                          #13
                          Originally posted by SBR_John
                          You ditto guys are welcome to offer your cough* cough* sharp opinions. Crickets time...
                          Whether or not any of us can 'cap a fight to save our lives doesn't affect whether or not your logic was flawed. Which it was. I'll be happy to give my opinion though.

                          I like Trout a lot against Lara, which was originally supposed to be tomorrow, but has been delayed. I 'capped Trout around -210 originally, but adjusted that figure to -180 after reevaluating a bit. I'm far from a great boxing 'capper, though. My edge is only decent.
                          Comment
                          • 21jumpstreet
                            SBR High Roller
                            • 08-24-13
                            • 234

                            #14
                            Threw $10 on fight ends in a Technical draw at 25000 to 1. Also did a little on any type of draw 750 to 1. All the conspiracy theories....don't believe any of them. Mayweather would never tarnish his record he makes enough money as it is and if he loses it will cost him more in the long run. Take a look at the judges instead...1 is the lady who gave Bradley the decision over PacMan. Also, 1 of the judges is pretty new...he is from Canada and no big fight experience. So a draw is not out of the question.
                            Comment
                            • SBR_John
                              SBR Posting Legend
                              • 07-12-05
                              • 16471

                              #15
                              Originally posted by 21jumpstreet
                              Threw $10 on fight ends in a Technical draw at 25000 to 1. Also did a little on any type of draw 750 to 1. All the conspiracy theories....don't believe any of them. Mayweather would never tarnish his record he makes enough money as it is and if he loses it will cost him more in the long run. Take a look at the judges instead...1 is the lady who gave Bradley the decision over PacMan. Also, 1 of the judges is pretty new...he is from Canada and no big fight experience. So a draw is not out of the question.
                              Dropped a token amount on Fight ends in a Draw at +2300 after eading your post. I didn't realize 1 of the judges was the lady who gave the fight to Bradley.

                              Boxing is a little like betting on wrestling these days. Never know when the fix is in.
                              Comment
                              • thetrinity
                                SBR Posting Legend
                                • 01-25-11
                                • 22431

                                #16
                                dont get why a "rematch" would make so much money if mayweather loses, isnt that all people want to see is him get beaten (most anyways)?

                                once he loses hell go into near oblivion like the rest of the sport.
                                Comment
                                • thetrinity
                                  SBR Posting Legend
                                  • 01-25-11
                                  • 22431

                                  #17
                                  a draw would also mean a blemish as well.
                                  Comment
                                  • jjgold
                                    SBR Aristocracy
                                    • 07-20-05
                                    • 388179

                                    #18
                                    Other angle is matched fixed for Mayweather and opponent promised more cash on the side

                                    Mayweather in the game makes other boxers cash
                                    Comment
                                    • 21jumpstreet
                                      SBR High Roller
                                      • 08-24-13
                                      • 234

                                      #19
                                      Yup Cynthia J. Ross aka CJ Ross. Our other sleeper judge is Craig Metcalfe...he is out of Canada. No large fight experience.
                                      Comment
                                      • 21jumpstreet
                                        SBR High Roller
                                        • 08-24-13
                                        • 234

                                        #20
                                        Originally posted by thetrinity
                                        a draw would also mean a blemish as well.
                                        Yes, but not by his doing. I am saying a draw just by the judges own doing (not a fix) is a more likely scenario than Mayweather taking a dive. The judges always see different things than each other. Fights are very subjective. And yes a rematch might make more money but after that then downhill. He wants his legacy of best fighter EVER. Also, he already has a guaranteed contract with Showtime for another 3-4 fights I believe. It was like a 6 fight contract for 250 Mill!
                                        Comment
                                        • PunisherIND
                                          SBR MVP
                                          • 02-24-11
                                          • 4983

                                          #21
                                          Originally posted by 21jumpstreet
                                          Threw $10 on fight ends in a Technical draw at 25000 to 1. Also did a little on any type of draw 750 to 1.
                                          +25000 or 25000 to 1?
                                          Comment
                                          • 21jumpstreet
                                            SBR High Roller
                                            • 08-24-13
                                            • 234

                                            #22
                                            well it all based off of 100 bets....so bet 100 win $25,000 and bet $100 to win $750.
                                            Comment
                                            • MD
                                              SBR Hall of Famer
                                              • 01-31-12
                                              • 9728

                                              #23
                                              Originally posted by 21jumpstreet
                                              well it all based off of 100 bets....so bet 100 win $25,000 and bet $100 to win $750.
                                              You're betting 10, but you said 1, which means 100?
                                              Comment
                                              • 21jumpstreet
                                                SBR High Roller
                                                • 08-24-13
                                                • 234

                                                #24
                                                Originally posted by MD
                                                You're betting 10, but you said 1, which means 100?
                                                Yes, sorry +25000 and +750. I bet $10 on the +25000 for the hell of it to win $2500. Put $50 on the +750. Just a couple fliers.
                                                Comment
                                                • SBR_John
                                                  SBR Posting Legend
                                                  • 07-12-05
                                                  • 16471

                                                  #25
                                                  What's the rule on a unintentional head butt draw in this one? Is it under 4 rounds its a draw, afterwards it goes to the scorecard? pinnacle simply has it "Will the fight end in a draw?" so I'm assuming any draw cashes. BTW, they must be reading the forum because the price has dropped from +2300 to +2100 since we started talking about it.
                                                  Comment
                                                  • 21jumpstreet
                                                    SBR High Roller
                                                    • 08-24-13
                                                    • 234

                                                    #26
                                                    Originally posted by SBR_John
                                                    What's the rule on a unintentional head butt draw in this one? Is it under 4 rounds its a draw, afterwards it goes to the scorecard? pinnacle simply has it "Will the fight end in a draw?" so I'm assuming any draw cashes. BTW, they must be reading the forum because the price has dropped from +2300 to +2100 since we started talking about it.
                                                    My bad actually I was looking at my other prop bet of a Mayweather by split decision that was +750. A draw is +2500 (any draw) and a Technical draw is +25,000. I got mine in at 5D. Yes I believe 4 rounds is the cutoff if a accidental headbutt etc. occurs and fighter cannot go on then it will be a Technical Draw.
                                                    Comment
                                                    • 21jumpstreet
                                                      SBR High Roller
                                                      • 08-24-13
                                                      • 234

                                                      #27
                                                      Still avail at 5D


                                                      Sat 9/14
                                                      313 Alvarez/Mayweather draw +2500
                                                      11:00PM 314 Fight not a draw -4000
                                                      Sat 9/14 399 Alvarez/Mayweather technical draw +25000
                                                      11:00PM 400 Any other result -125000
                                                      Comment
                                                      • Thor4140
                                                        SBR Posting Legend
                                                        • 02-09-08
                                                        • 22296

                                                        #28
                                                        Only way Cano can win is by a robbery of a decision or if he somehow wakes up and realizes he is a southpaw. The only person on this planet that has a legitimate shot at Floyd is Pacman because he is a southpaw and can match Floyds speed. Yeah i know people are down on Manny for his two straight loses in which one he got blatantly robbed ( there are actually complete fools on this site who want people to watch it again without sound and see that Bradley won my goodness)and the other he was pretty much dominating until he got caught by a guy who was so roided up a train wasn't gonna stop him. We know Manny roids up but what Marquez was on that night was on whole nother level. I have been on this Floyd money train for a long time but this fight has me worried. Not because of Floyd but because of two of the judges are flat out crooks and the guy from Canada i have no idea about. You only need two. Oh and when i watched the Pac Bradley fight again instead of 9-3 i had the first time i changed it to 10-2
                                                        Comment
                                                        • cheeese
                                                          SBR Wise Guy
                                                          • 02-22-11
                                                          • 784

                                                          #29
                                                          Originally posted by SBR_John
                                                          Boxing is a little like betting on wrestling these days. Never know when the fix is in.
                                                          Isn't the fix always in on wrestling?
                                                          Comment
                                                          • MD
                                                            SBR Hall of Famer
                                                            • 01-31-12
                                                            • 9728

                                                            #30
                                                            Originally posted by cheeese
                                                            Isn't the fix always in on wrestling?
                                                            He doesn't know. If you read the thread, you'll realize why.
                                                            Comment
                                                            • Thor4140
                                                              SBR Posting Legend
                                                              • 02-09-08
                                                              • 22296

                                                              #31
                                                              just watched Canelo Trout. U want to see a fix check out those scorecards Was a close fight and of course everyone commentating and in the crowd had this a close fight but two of the judges. One guy actually had it 118-109 Canelo. Paul Mag said when this judge had it 80-71 for Canelo that the guy might as well go to the bathroom because he isn't about to give a round to Trout Somehow these judges will always say the fans don't know how to judge the fights but there is always a majority of the boxers (who saw the same fight)who see the same thing the fans see for some strange reason. Well not strange to me.
                                                              Comment
                                                              • MD
                                                                SBR Hall of Famer
                                                                • 01-31-12
                                                                • 9728

                                                                #32
                                                                Originally posted by Thor4140
                                                                just watched Canelo Trout. U want to see a fix check out those scorecards Was a close fight and of course everyone commentating and in the crowd had this a close fight but two of the judges. One guy actually had it 118-109 Canelo. Paul Mag said when this judge had it 80-71 for Canelo that the guy might as well go to the bathroom because he isn't about to give a round to Trout Somehow these judges will always say the fans don't know how to judge the fights but there is always a majority of the boxers (who saw the same fight)who see the same thing the fans see for some strange reason. Well not strange to me.
                                                                Yeah, it was a shocking one. I had Trout winning slightly after eight, but would have understood Canelo being up a round or two. Was actually sort of surprised at the scorecards, although I suppose I should have expected it. Pounded Canelo live at like -1700, knowing that Trout needed a KO.
                                                                Comment
                                                                • bubblebuttluv
                                                                  SBR Hall of Famer
                                                                  • 11-13-12
                                                                  • 5179

                                                                  #33
                                                                  My thread got in on Canelo to win at +230 earlier in the week. 1 unit to win 2.3

                                                                  We just got down on Mayweather by decision at -141 at 5Dimes. 1.9035 units (we use $100 units) to win 1.35 units.

                                                                  Mayweather will NOT win by anything other than a decision.

                                                                  So profit of 0.3965 units of Alvarez wins and a profit of 0.35 units if Mayweather wins by decision.

                                                                  Very sharp way to play it.
                                                                  Comment
                                                                  • MD
                                                                    SBR Hall of Famer
                                                                    • 01-31-12
                                                                    • 9728

                                                                    #34
                                                                    Originally posted by bubblebuttluv
                                                                    My thread got in on Canelo to win at +230 earlier in the week. 1 unit to win 2.3

                                                                    We just got down on Mayweather by decision at -141 at 5Dimes. 1.9035 units (we use $100 units) to win 1.35 units.

                                                                    Mayweather will NOT win by anything other than a decision.

                                                                    So profit of 0.3965 units of Alvarez wins and a profit of 0.35 units if Mayweather wins by decision.

                                                                    Very sharp way to play it.
                                                                    Sharp as a tack! Surprised no one thought of risking $290 to win either $35 or $39 on Not Mayweather ITD through an elaborate series of props rather than just playing Not Mayweather ITD for a guaranteed return of $35.32. Problem though, genius: your side loses on draws.
                                                                    Comment
                                                                    • bubblebuttluv
                                                                      SBR Hall of Famer
                                                                      • 11-13-12
                                                                      • 5179

                                                                      #35
                                                                      Originally posted by MD
                                                                      Sharp as a tack! Surprised no one thought of risking $290 to win either $35 or $39 on Not Mayweather ITD through an elaborate series of props rather than just playing Not Mayweather ITD for a guaranteed return of $35.32. Problem though, genius: your side loses on draws.
                                                                      You mad?
                                                                      Comment
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