"Will there be a safety" anyone hit this prop bet and what did it pay?

[poker_dummy101]

Unless you consistently beat the market at closing over a large sample size, and unless the theory behind your beating closing numbers is solid, I would assume there is some information that you lack for that specific game such as an injury, team illness, etc.

So it is safe to assume you think the ONLY value you can get out of this play is betting it early and beating the line movement, since:

A. under at 134.5 (you've lost all the value)
B. over at 134.5 (you are missing some important information??)


C. you get the under 141.5 (noone arguing great value)
D you get over 141.5 (obv bad value).


Just curious, and thanks for the input.

[raiders72002]

How do you determine which one of the lines is efficient?

[raiders72002]

So it is safe to assume you think the ONLY value you can get out of this play is betting it early and beating the line movement, since:

A. under at 134.5 (you've lost all the value)
B. over at 134.5 (you are missing some important information??)


C. you get the under 141.5 (noone arguing great value)
D you get over 141.5 (obv bad value).


Just curious, and thanks for the input.

over 134.5 , under 141.5 are the obvious bets. It all depends on how long the totals last at those numbers. Sometimes they just flash at the extremes making it impossible to get the above numbers

edit - yes, there is still value not getting the best of those lines when the line fluctuates to that degree.

[poker_dummy101]

How do you determine which one of the lines is efficient?

the closing lines

[raiders72002]

So it is safe to assume you think the ONLY value you can get out of this play is betting it early and beating the line movement, since:

A. under at 134.5 (you've lost all the value)
B. over at 134.5 (you are missing some important information??)


C. you get the under 141.5 (noone arguing great value)
D you get over 141.5 (obv bad value).


Just curious, and thanks for the input.

also, this is similar to the question I asked Don Juan. If you can always get the best line on a moves( o134.5, u141.5) like that, a monkey can win by playing either side.

[poker_dummy101]

also, this is similar to the question I asked Don Juan. If you can always get the best line on a moves( o134.5, u141.5) like that, a monkey can win by playing either side.

No, the point he is making is O/U 134.5 is the true line and therefore neither Under nor Over has value I believe.

[donjuan]

and +4.5?

50%.


To further explain why lines logically should move towards efficiency (other than my own empirical evidence), limits get higher the closer you get to game time. This is mostly because books are not that good at making fair value on a game and want "sharps" to do it for them without costing them too much money. So as the limits get higher (and game time gets closer) the sharper the line gets.

[raiders72002]

No, the point he is making is O/U 134.5 is the true line and therefore neither Under nor Over has value I believe.

ok, I get it. Normally in a situation like this the o134.5 has value.

[raiders72002]

50%.


To further explain why lines logically should move towards efficiency (other than my own empirical evidence), limits get higher the closer you get to game time. This is mostly because books are not that good at making fair value on a game and want "sharps" to do it for them without costing them too much money. So as the limits get higher (and game time gets closer) the sharper the line gets.

Agree, books let the sharps move the line for them, but this normally happens at the lower limit on opening numbers as you stated.

I was looking at a slightly different situation, just on steam plays just prior to tip-off.

[donjuan]

Agree, books let the sharps move the line for them, but this normally happens at the lower limit on opening numbers as you stated.

I was looking at a slightly different situation, just on steam plays just prior to tip-off.

The level of sharpness depends on the limit. $100 or whatever opening limits really aren't worth it if your bankroll is reasonably big. So someone like Billy Walters is much more likely to wait until limits are higher where he can have a higher expected value on his bets. As for late steam, there is still a decent chance it is late news like an injury or lineup change (say 2 years ago there was late news Barry Bonds wasn't playing).

[Luv2Poker]

Well, just gettin back from the game..KICK ASS TO SAY THE LEAST GENTLEMEN....!!!!

TO respond to the thread...not the corresponding rhetoric.. the payouts give or take a few dollars for the safety prop is as follows if i'm not mistaken: I looked at it just before we left tailgaitin'...massive buzz in hand but "word" safety is all i can remember! Hopefully it wasnt like first score of the game or some shit!

AZ- +3000

Pitt + 2300

[reno cool]

Certainly over 134 is better than over 141 if you can get it, but that's not to say over 141 is necessarily bad. You are solely using line movement to estimate value. Some better winning system might have over as a play at that #. In fact if the total ends up 163 that gives more credence that over 141 was a play in that particular game.