"Will there be a safety" anyone hit this prop bet and what did it pay?

BETTING_INSIDER · 02-01-09, 11:42 PM

No but it payed 250-1

j0hnnyv · 02-01-09, 11:46 PM

i thought bookmaker had it at +1000 ???

purecarnagge · 02-01-09, 11:46 PM

okay...not to self wait 5 years start to bet the saftey prop...every year...until next saftey... 10.00 a year... thank yourself within the next 20 years hopefully!

Vegas had it at 250 to 1...

Offshore books have there own lines...If it landed at +1000...I bet the book claims bad line and voids the wager...

j0hnnyv · 02-01-09, 11:52 PM

lol u prob right

donjuan · 02-02-09, 12:38 AM

Anyone who won this bet is a moron.

onthewhat · 02-02-09, 12:39 AM

Originally posted by donjuan

Anyone who won this bet is a moron.

go back to think tank you fukkin nit wit

TPowell · 02-02-09, 12:41 AM

I'm with onner on this 1, a winning bet is NEVER a bad bet. Plus, at +1000 why not pull the trigger if you hav money to throw away?

Poker_Beast · 02-02-09, 12:41 AM

I took the bet at Bookmaker. It was +800, bet $10 and won $80.

rjt721 · 02-02-09, 12:43 AM

Originally posted by TPowell

I'm with onner on this 1, a winning bet is NEVER a bad bet. Plus, at +1000 why not pull the trigger if you hav money to throw away?

Dumbest thing I've ever read.

Slim · 02-02-09, 12:43 AM

Originally posted by donjuan

Anyone who won this bet is a moron.

Every post from this guy is negative.

TPowell · 02-02-09, 12:45 AM

Originally posted by rjt721

Dumbest thing I've ever read.

alright, I'm talking about bets that arent chalk. Forgot to clarify that. Always 2 stories to every game

rjt721 · 02-02-09, 12:47 AM

Originally posted by TPowell

alright, I'm talking about bets that arent chalk. Forgot to clarify that. Always 2 stories to every game

Still dumb.

TPowell · 02-02-09, 12:52 AM

Alright name a situation where an ATS bet is a bad play if its a winner in the end? Louisville (-6.5) against Notre Dame. The game goes to overtime, Louisville bashes ND because they wore them down. Why isnt Louisville -6.5 bet a good bet? Notre Dame was obviously gonna wear down before the end of the game. Sorry for bringing up random games but its just the first thing that popped into my head

rjt721 · 02-02-09, 12:57 AM

Portland State/Montana State this afternoon. Total opens 141.5 at Cris. Total closes 134.5 at Pinny. You play Over 134.5. You win... Game lands on 167. You're going to tell me O 134.5 was a good bet?

donjuan · 02-02-09, 01:03 AM

go back to think tank you fukkin nit wit

You clearly don't understand the words you are using, bro.

I'm with onner on this 1, a winning bet is NEVER a bad bet. Plus, at +1000 why not pull the trigger if you hav money to throw away?

It's nice to see the Super Bowl always brings out the retards. Thanks for all the EV.

Every post from this guy is negative.

False.

Portland State/Montana State this afternoon. Total opens 141.5 at Cris. Total closes 134.5 at Pinny. You play Over 134.5. Game lands on 167. You're going to tell me O 134.5 is a good bet?

This would be better if the person bet o141.5. Anyway, glad to see someone else with a functional brain.

TPowell · 02-02-09, 01:03 AM

umm did you word that right? Looks fine to me

poker_dummy101 · 02-02-09, 01:04 AM

Originally posted by rjt721

Portland State/Montana State this afternoon. Total opens 141.5 at Cris. Total closes 134.5 at Pinny. You play Over 134.5. You win... Game lands on 167. You're going to tell me O 134.5 was a good bet?

Over 134.5 is a good bet, your example is off.

rjt721 · 02-02-09, 01:10 AM

Originally posted by TPowell

umm did you word that right? Looks fine to me

No, as a matter of fact, I didn't. Same scenario... Total opens 141.5, closes 134.5. You play Over 141.5. Explain to me how the latter is a good bet.

rjt721 · 02-02-09, 01:11 AM

Originally posted by poker_dummy101

Over 134.5 is a good bet, your example is off.

Yup. Caught that. My mistake.

donjuan · 02-02-09, 01:12 AM

Over 134.5 is a good bet, your example is off.

No, it's not, unless you have some model that beats closing lines or you get odds at better than +100.

TPowell · 02-02-09, 01:13 AM

oh, I gotcha. You mixed me up dude. Still, if you capped the game and found an edge and bet the over then I dont have a problem with it. I like to line watch a little before I pull the trigger on bets but if you can get away with bad lines, why not?

poker_dummy101 · 02-02-09, 01:17 AM

Originally posted by donjuan

No, it's not, unless you have some model that beats closing lines or you get odds at better than +100.

What? Are you trying to say that there is no value in betting the over at all in this example?

TPowell · 02-02-09, 01:19 AM

wait, the smallest total the book gives and you bet the over. How is that no value?

poker_dummy101 · 02-02-09, 01:20 AM

Originally posted by poker_dummy101

What? Are you trying to say that there is no value in betting the over at all in this example?

This is also assuming you think there is an edge in the over, since you capped it to go over.

Shortstop · 02-02-09, 01:22 AM

Originally posted by Slim

Every post from this guy is negative.

Negative people suck

smitch124 · 02-02-09, 01:23 AM

Originally posted by poker_dummy101

This is also assuming you think there is an edge in the over, since you capped it to go over.

They are saying that the closing line, in this case 134.5, is the usually the most accurate. So the only way to have an edge in this case on an over bet is to get a line below 134.5 and that was never available.

donjuan · 02-02-09, 01:26 AM

What? Are you trying to say that there is no value in betting the over at all in this example?

wait, the smallest total the book gives and you bet the over. How is that no value?

Lines almost always move towards efficiency, not away from it.

tacomax · 02-02-09, 01:31 AM

Originally posted by TPowell

I'm with onner on this 1, a winning bet is NEVER a bad bet.

That quote is so fukkin' good that I'm going to get it tattooed on my cock tomorrow morning.

TPowell · 02-02-09, 01:36 AM

hey, the 2 most negative posters on SBR in the same thread, I feel the angst busting through my laptop now

poker_dummy101 · 02-02-09, 01:36 AM

Originally posted by donjuan

Lines almost always move towards efficiency, not away from it.

I completely agree with you and I think the "best" value was under 141.5 looking back on it...

But lets say you cap this game at ~143 or whatever and the line is already moving down to 138, 137 and so on... are you saying you would stay away from your play when the closing line is 134.5? It seems to me he got the "best edge" he could on this game assuming he is a winning player.

donjuan · 02-02-09, 01:41 AM

I completely agree with you and I think the "best" value was under 141.5 looking back on it...

But lets say you cap this game at ~143 or whatever and the line is already moving down to 138, 137 and so on... are you saying you would stay away from your play when the closing line is 134.5? It seems to me he got the "best edge" he could on this game assuming he is a winning player.

Unless you consistently beat the market at closing over a large sample size, and unless the theory behind your beating closing numbers is solid, I would assume there is some information that you lack for that specific game such as an injury, team illness, etc.

raiders72002 · 02-02-09, 01:47 AM

Originally posted by donjuan

Lines almost always move towards efficiency, not away from it.

Give us some percentages. I'd love to see this. For every total that moves up two points or more, what percentage would you win playing the over at the opening number? What percentage would you win playing the under at the highest total.

It's a bet steam or bet against steam after the move type of question.

donjuan · 02-02-09, 01:50 AM

Give us some percentages. I'd love to see this. For every total that moves up two points or more, what percentage would you win playing the over at the opening number? What percentage would you win playing the under on the highest total.

It's a bet steam or bet against steam after the move type of question.

Say an NBA line moves from -2.5 to -4.5. If -4.5 is efficient, -2.5 wins slightly less than 58% of the time.

Edit: I see your question was about totals. You can basically use the half-point calculator here but you need to decrease each push percentage a little bit as you get further from the median total for a game.

raiders72002 · 02-02-09, 01:51 AM

Originally posted by donjuan

Say an NBA line moves from -2.5 to -4.5. If -4.5 is efficient, -2.5 wins slightly less than 58% of the time.

Edit: I see your question was about totals. You can basically use the half-point calculator here but you need to decrease each push percentage a little bit as you get further from the median total for a game.

and +4.5?