Tigers (Scherzer) vs. Bosox (Lester) - Under a No-Brainer?

[No coincidences]

I like this play a lot based on each pitcher having his "normal" effort, which is really all that you can cap ahead of time.

Given the typical run support for both pitchers, the hitter-friendly park, top two teams in the league in runs scored, top two teams in the league in OPS, etc., why would you assume the pitchers would have "normal" efforts tonight? That's the point I guess I'm missing here.

[billysink]

Scherzer looks tempting as a tiny dog too as he again tries to become the only other pitcher besides Roger Clemens to begin a season 20-1. He comes off of his worst start of the year, I don't see him having two duds in a row. Guy has a 2.90 ERA, 0.93 WHIP, .196 batting average allowed and 201 strikeouts vs. 43 walks in 183.1 innings. It's a bit surprising that he is only seventh in the majors in FIP, 11th in xFIP and fourth in WAR, but the guy is still a stud. Still, Lester is in great form too, allowing three runs or less in five straight starts and in 10 of his last 11, including allowing two earned or less in four of those last five. The Under looks like the better play here, although I wouldn't argue with Scherzer at + odds.

These numbers are of less and less consequence at this time of year with the amount of pitches thrown and innings pitched. Two bad starts in a row would do little to change them. Two bad starts in a row would indicate a problem not reflected in the advanced metrics. Case in point Adam Wainright. He has been crushed twice out and still had great saber stats leading into his second shelling.

Where you want to look is in the pitch charts, location charts, velocity and release point. Compare them over the last month and then to a start in early June. It is quite easy to determine start by start regression when analyzing an arm ( that may be tired) and a pitch selection, rather than hoping the metrics hold true because they have not yet indicated they would not.

What folks should be looking at in this one is what is going to happen rather than what has happend. That approach is paramount late in the year.

[No coincidences]

These numbers are of less and less consequence at this time of year with the amount of pitches thrown and innings pitched. Two bad starts in a row would do little to change them. Two bad starts in a row would indicate a problem not reflected in the advanced metrics. Case in point Adam Wainright. He has been crushed twice out and still had great saber stats leading into his second shelling.

Where you want to look is in the pitch charts, location charts, velocity and release point. Compare them over the last month and then to a start in early June. It is quite easy to determine start by start regression when analyzing an arm ( that may be tired) and a pitch selection, rather than hoping the metrics hold true because they have not yet indicated they would not.

What folks should be looking at in this one is what is going to happen rather than what has happend. That approach is paramount late in the year.

Well said.

I personally don't know how anyone could back Scherzer and the Tigers in this spot, but that's just me.

[stevenash]

These numbers are of less and less consequence at this time of year with the amount of pitches thrown and innings pitched. Two bad starts in a row would do little to change them. Two bad starts in a row would indicate a problem not reflected in the advanced metrics. Case in point Adam Wainright. He has been crushed twice out and still had great saber stats leading into his second shelling.

Where you want to look is in the pitch charts, location charts, velocity and release point. Compare them over the last month and then to a start in early June. It is quite easy to determine start by start regression when analyzing an arm ( that may be tired) and a pitch selection, rather than hoping the metrics hold true because they have not yet indicated they would not.

What folks should be looking at in this one is what is going to happen rather than what has happend. That approach is paramount late in the year.

Good post, another case in point is Kuroda, who I expect will be schooled tonight by Chris Sale.

[thes0vereign]

FF over has hit in 3/4 of Scherzer's starts.

[billysink]

Scherzer has historically been prone to high pitch counts against lefthanded hitters. I don't have the lineup from last in front of me but I seem to remember the A's loading up an entire lineup of left handed or switch hitters and I recall that being what I thought was the key to the game. If my memory serves me correct I think he threw around 105 or so pitches and only a dozen were against righties. I would not read too much into that start unless the Red Sox load left as well.

I also seem to remember a drop of about 1.75 MPH on the slider as well. I don't have those stats in front of me right now but they would be worth looking into. I also recollect that Lester's pitch selection looks like cotton candy to a lot of the right handed batting lineup Detroit may present.

[matthew919]

Miggy's in, grab the over 8 -103 while you can get it.

[thes0vereign]

Jackson
Hunter
Cabrera
Fielder
Martinez
Infante
Tuiasosopo
Pena
Iglesias

Big bats present and accounted for.

[turtlejc]

Bought down and went over 7.5 -128

[ebelisle22]

Sherszer is going to get shelled tonight

[ebelisle22]

Jackson
Hunter
Cabrera
Fielder
Martinez
Infante
Tuiasosopo
Pena
Iglesias

Big bats present and accounted for.

False

[teaserpleaser]

Jackson
Hunter
Cabrera
Fielder
Martinez
Infante
Tuiasosopo
Pena
Iglesias

Big bats present and accounted for.

That's the A lineup pretty much Think they will light up lester tonight

[You mad bro]

Sherszer is going to get shelled tonight

[Fernburn74]

Good luck. Tonight

[Fernburn74]

That's the A lineup pretty much Think they will light up lester tonight

Nicely put. Right on

[You mad bro]

Good luck. Tonight

thx lol .. going against him in fantasy .. need a good week lmao

[stevenash]

If I'm Lester, I'm leaving my cutter at home, He's in love with the cutter, however he's not Mo and he doesn't have a good one. Any Tiger in that line up can crush a mediocre 91 mph cutter, his out pitch is his four seamer, and he's got a good hook, but if he insists on throwing that crappy cut fastball. He's not making inning four.

[RavensFan2k3]

That's the A lineup pretty much Think they will light up lester tonight

Yet they are dogs...

[You mad bro]

If I'm Lester, I'm leaving my cutter at home, He's in love with the cutter, however he's not Mo and he doesn't have a good one. Any Tiger in that line up can crush a mediocre 91 mph cutter, his out pitch is his four seamer, and he's got a good hook, but if he insists on throwing that crappy cut fastball. He's not making inning four.

who u on tonight nasty

[Down_Goes Bookie]

Tigers are #2 in MLB vs. LHP at .274 and have smacked Lester around with a roughly .333 BA over the last three meetings. Wouldn't be surprised to see him touched up for 4 ERs pretty quickly, particularly given how he's prone to struggle at Fenway. Meanwhile Scherzer is gunning to reassert himself with a strong performance in something of a playoff atmosphere. Tigers 6 Red Sox 2.

[stevenash]

who u on tonight nasty

Brews at home +108. Cole is going to get lit up, and Gallardo will reward anybody who backs the Brews.
I like this play a lot, I like home bow-wows and this is a good spot.

[You mad bro]

Tigers are #2 in MLB vs. LHP at .274 and have smacked Lester around with a roughly .333 BA over the last three meetings. Wouldn't be surprised to see him touched up for 4 ERs pretty quickly, particularly given how he's prone to struggle at Fenway. Meanwhile Scherzer is gunning to reassert himself with a strong performance in something of a playoff atmosphere. Tigers 6 Red Sox 2.

interesting way of looking at it

[You mad bro]

Brews at home +108. Cole is going to get lit up, and Gallardo will reward anybody who backs the Brews.
I like this play a lot, I like home bow-wows and this is a good spot.

hit 2500 on a lotto ticket .. was looking for a game to throw it down on lol

idk if i can throw that kinda money on the crew tonight ... might have to split it up

[billysink]

If I'm Lester, I'm leaving my cutter at home, He's in love with the cutter, however he's not Mo and he doesn't have a good one. Any Tiger in that line up can crush a mediocre 91 mph cutter, his out pitch is his four seamer, and he's got a good hook, but if he insists on throwing that crappy cut fastball. He's not making inning four.

here is a guy who looked at it right. Every Tiger other than Tory in tonights line is a plus cutter hitter. Some big plus

[stevenash]

here is a guy who looked at it right. Every Tiger other than Tory in tonights line is a plus cutter hitter. Some big plus

His cutter is nothing but a hit me hard flat fastball.

[billysink]

His cutter is nothing but a hit me hard flat fastball.

Never had a lot of break but now down a couple of inches in the zone and 2 mph short of June

[odog11]

Detroit pen worries me a bit and Sox have hit well late and poorly against good starting pitching.

Here's my play:

Detroit Tigers 1st 5 Innings +½ -145

[The Giant]

Detroit has gone over in the first five innings at an 18-6-3 clip with Scherzer on the mound.

[turtlejc]

Like white sox / Yankees over first 5 3.5 -115 a lot

[No coincidences]

Under 8 available at +110 now if you still like it, LT.

[stevenash]

Holy crap, that last fastball to Pedroia had late movement and had to hit 98 mph on the slow gun.
Made DP look stupid.
WOW. JUST WOW

[turtlejc]

Ya were all fukked

LT wins

[stevenash]

lol
Who told Bryan Pena he had any foot speed at all?
lol
Lester got a gift

[dartmouthemcee]

I am on the under on this as well - got in at 8.5 last night

[ThaTopMoron]

2 of the most prolific offenses in the game and this guey says the under is a lock LMFAO

it's baseball, dude