Trying to analyze Basketball Totals based on statistics - has anyone tried it before?
First of all I pay a lot of attention to the starting lines ... I'm picking these up from the web even after the game started.
Now I took for example this Women Basketball game between Belarus and England.
Currently the game is in 4th quarter, but FIBA supplies statistics of the shooting % for both teams.
During half-time England was around the 30% ... Belarus was around the 40% - 45% which is why they're leading and winning the game.
The opening line was 126.5 and the line during half-time was 127.5 - 128.5 depends on the bookmaker offering it.
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When England started the 3rd quarter there was a period of time when their stats started to go as high as 45% in the FIBA screen, the line was 133.5 - I was tempted for a moment to go with the trend, but statistically speaking England is a very poor team (and the underdog in this game) and I told myself that statistically speaking only there is no chance they will keep shooting like this .... So I picked the UNDER here, risking 100 GBP:
3rd quarter ended with 96 points...
To reach 134 points (I mean to lose this bet) both teams need to score 38 points which is quite unlikely ...
I'm following up with the game here:
Again, I'm only using statistics here, and I cannot take into account issues like free throws and such which usually happen more often in the NBA where the teams want to rig the line (don't tell me it's not true)...
If you have any opinions please let me know what you think?
Now I took for example this Women Basketball game between Belarus and England.
Currently the game is in 4th quarter, but FIBA supplies statistics of the shooting % for both teams.
During half-time England was around the 30% ... Belarus was around the 40% - 45% which is why they're leading and winning the game.
The opening line was 126.5 and the line during half-time was 127.5 - 128.5 depends on the bookmaker offering it.
---------------------------------------
When England started the 3rd quarter there was a period of time when their stats started to go as high as 45% in the FIBA screen, the line was 133.5 - I was tempted for a moment to go with the trend, but statistically speaking England is a very poor team (and the underdog in this game) and I told myself that statistically speaking only there is no chance they will keep shooting like this .... So I picked the UNDER here, risking 100 GBP:
3rd quarter ended with 96 points...
To reach 134 points (I mean to lose this bet) both teams need to score 38 points which is quite unlikely ...
I'm following up with the game here:
Again, I'm only using statistics here, and I cannot take into account issues like free throws and such which usually happen more often in the NBA where the teams want to rig the line (don't tell me it's not true)...
If you have any opinions please let me know what you think?
