would you post it or not?

[bigboydan]

I was just talking with a fellow poster the other day, and I'd like to get you guys opinion on this one.


This guy I was talking too told me about a trend that seems to cash at about a 75% clip, but he refused to tell me what the trend was. When I asked him for the trend he refused to tell me, because he claimed once the word got out on it, the trend will no longer cash. I can see where this guy is comming from on this one, because I too would me more inclined to keep that one to myself if it cashed in at such a high rate.

If you found a trend that continued to cash in year in and year out would you post it on the forum or not?

[pags11]

I'm calling BS on it Dan...go ahead and have him post it and there's no way it hits 75% unless he's betting ML favs, which means he may not even come out ahead in the long run at the end of the season...

[kdmfox]

I was just talking with a fellow poster the other day, and I'd like to get you guys opinion on this one.


This guy I was talking too told me about a trend that seems to cash at about a 75% clip, but he refused to tell me what the trend was. When I asked him for the trend he refused to tell me, because he claimed once the word got out on it, the trend will no longer cash. I can see where this guy is comming from on this one, because I too would me more inclined to keep that one to myself if it cashed in at such a high rate.

If you found a trend that continued to cash in year in and year out would you post it on the forum or not?

I'd post it ... How would having others bet on it change the trend? ... Let me see if I have this straight ... He tells you he has a trend that hits 75% of the time and then jerks you around by not telling you what it is? ... My guess is he's dreaming.

[pags11]

exactly fox...the best hit 60%, maybe 62%, 63% on a great year...now way 75%...

[bigboydan]

i wouldn't say he's dreaming on that trend at all KDM.

before the forums I knew of a trend that cashed in at roughly a 78% clip that nobody else knew about it seemed like. now grant it was it was the late 80's/early 90's.

[pags11]

c'mon dan...I'm not buying that either...

[bigboydan]

c'mon dan...I'm not buying that either...

ok pags if you say so

[pags11]

dan,

I'm not trying to bust your balls, I'm just saying for a complete season to attain those kind of percentages is nearly impossible...no doubt a guy could do that for a week, weeks or even a month...but to keep it up for a whole season is just too difficult...

[bigboydan]

well, a complete season is a little different pags. thats not easy at all to do. the one i was refering to was based on a particular month way back in the day.

[pags11]

my bad then dan, your original post led me to believe it was a season long system...

[bigboydan]

hell no pags! thats a damn near impossable trend to aquire.

[pags11]

agreed dan...

[joe blow]

If it's true or not ,i wouldn't post it...I might sell it

[Dark Horse]

I would post some of the plays, but not the trend.

FWIW, I don't measure the strength of a trend or system in percentages, but in Z-factor. Weakness in percentages is the sample size. Z-factor equals: wins minus losses, divided by square root of wins+losses. Play anything with Z-factor over 2.5 with confidence.

[Mudcat]

Setting aside any skepticism over this 75% number, let's talk about the principle of blabbing the details of a consistent winning system to the world.

My answer is no f*cking way. Forget 75% winners, I know moneyline trends that grind out about a unit of profit for every ten bets (roughly the equivalent of winning 56% of pointspread bets), and I wouldn't dream of posting the details publicly.

There is no reason to. For one thing, Dan's friend is right: if too many people find out and start jumping on a winning system, it can effect the lines and spoil the system, or at least reduce the profitability.

If I ever get so needy that I am willing to give up hard-earned profit for a few pats on the back from internet strangers, just kill me on the spot.

[Willie Bee]

I'd post it...right after I was putting the last of about $50 million or so in the bank and heading to my summer/winter home.

[jjgold]

All trends work there way back to 50%, it is stats 101.

What is it??

NHL +1/2 pucks + the money parlayed with totals under 5.5 + the money?

[pags11]

on the other side of that argument mudcat is that the factor that most are skeptics and no matter how much a system has worked, there will always be those that are against it...which is why I called BS on the system in the first place until Dan said it was a smaller hot streak...

[SBR_John]

Do you think the bookmakers dont know about trends?? Trends get priced out.

Its like the touts saying both pitchers are a combined 8-2 UNDER their last 10(btw, thats 80% ), so take the under!! Uh, yea, like the bookmakers are totally clueless to those facts.

[pags11]

I agree john...there's no substitute for watching games and good handicapping...the trends, systems and stuff are all short term...good handicappers stand the test of time...

[jjgold]

If Big Boy Dan is not Danny Sheridan I do not know who is. This kid is a hustler.

[Hoja Verdes]

I've got a baseball "system" I devised this year that currently stands at 19-4 and has been mildly profitable.

However, I fully realize this "system" could only be a short-term thing and not a true system at all. It also requires a 2x risk for only an avg. .7x profit. So when you win, you win small, and when you lose, you lose big. But at 19-4, it's definitely in the black, and it's gotten me well on my way to my rollover goal at The Greek. And as soon as I hit that goal, I'm pulling my balance out and going back to Pinnacle full-time.

I'd be more than happy to post it if anyone is curious. I'm a little busy at work, but I'll go into the details when I'm home watching baseball around 7pm CST.

[SBR_John]

Want to hear my NFL trend?

Take the NFL team that has the highest power ratings that happens to be an underdog that week. Basically, take the best NFL team that happens to be in the role of an underdog for that week.

Thats my trend play.

[chano]

I call bullshit on the trend. No way 75 %, no way

[sergfro]

if you're hitting 75% you would not taste your time posting in a forum or even telling people about it

[JoshW]

I posted movie box office plays in 2002 that ended up going 90% over 22 picks. I was new to forums and wanted to contribute in some way. The market wasn't the big and I could of ruined it, but not that many people followed them and the lines got sharper anyway.

If I could do the same thing today, I likely wouldn't post it. Why even risk ruining a market.

If I had a true 75% in a major sport, which I don't really believe can happen, I certainly wouldn't publish it.

[Bill Dozer]

I believe trends in the early days were worth 75%. A few of the offshore legends talk about putting a hurtin on Vegas, playing the wind with MLB O/Us. You might consider that inside info.

[Yoshi]

bah where did all the posts go

[bigboydan]

bah where did all the posts go

http://forum.sbrforum.com/showthread.php?p=142089#post142089

[imgv94]

Setting aside any skepticism over this 75% number, let's talk about the principle of blabbing the details of a consistent winning system to the world.

My answer is no f*cking way. Forget 75% winners, I know moneyline trends that grind out about a unit of profit for every ten bets (roughly the equivalent of winning 56% of pointspread bets), and I wouldn't dream of posting the details publicly.

There is no reason to. For one thing, Dan's friend is right: if too many people find out and start jumping on a winning system, it can effect the lines and spoil the system, or at least reduce the profitability.

If I ever get so needy that I am willing to give up hard-earned profit for a few pats on the back from internet strangers, just kill me on the spot.

http://forum.sbrforum.com/showthread.php?t=16185

[homedog]

Do you think the bookmakers dont know about trends?? Trends get priced out.

Its like the touts saying both pitchers are a combined 8-2 UNDER their last 10(btw, thats 80% ), so take the under!! Uh, yea, like the bookmakers are totally clueless to those facts.

Sure bookmakers know about trends. A trend that wins doesn't mean that the majority of the bettors/$ are on the winning side. And if the majority of bettors/$ are following the losing side of the trend then the bookmaker is plenty happy to leave the line as is.

Winning trends exist, albeit for shorter periods now vs 20 years ago. It's a trend of the information age we live in.

[pags11]

pretty good thread here...

[jjgold]

Ever single game has tons of winning trends if you look at statfox and tons of losing trends.

Very few trends are worthwhile and mean very little once you hit the playing field.

I know very few trend bettors that win

[pags11]

stafox actually sent me a football trends mag...it was pretty cool to look through it...

[onlooker]

stafox actually sent me a football trends mag...it was pretty cool to look through it...

Was it "Statfox Edge"? Thats the one I got in the mail.

Looks like BetCRIS had a hand in those magazines too, if its the one I mention above.