8/12- MLB. Miley on a heater. Take the D-backs today -113

[BennyBigNuts]

I don't know how but this guy's been on fire the last month or so.
Had him a couple times for winners, gonna stay on him here today at home and -113.
I still think Miley isn't that great of a pitcher, but he's found a groove right now, and there's no reason not to back him here at home almost at a pick.

Feldman has been awful, and really never was a good pitcher to begin with but somehow made himself a name.
Orioles bats have been pretty hot, and I don't like fading them often, but Feldman is a guy you will get good value fading, today is a good example.
I think Zona should be -130 to -140 here.

D-backs have been a good team for me this year. They always seem to score a lot of runs when I'm on them.
Could be LOTS of runs today.


D-BACKS -113 MILEY

[joco]

i agree as usual mr nuts. lets get it

[BeanTownClown88]

yessir

I like miley too....Heater Griffin over there

[reesp18]

I usually agree with all your picks BennyBigNuts but i im on Baltimore tonight, for a few reasons: Bal is beter in interleague, is the hotter/better team, and your right, Miley is not that good, is hot right now but not that good, could implode against a hard hitting lineup, and Feldman is an x factor more or less, just hoping he has a decent game, or 'quality start'. OH AND better value on Baltimore line, getting plus money. GL! Someone's winning more money!

[Ratpack]

yeah plus a big bat in cody ross getting hurt wont be in the lineup for the d backs tonight and all the o's have to do is get to the dbacks bullpen cause there TERRIBLE. All the orioles have to do is withstand miley like they did cain yesterday and blow up their bullpen like they did the giants bullpen yesterday

[reesp18]

Agreed ^^

[jjgold]

Tough game

O's hot which scares me

I liked the chicks more than the pick here

[BigDeem5]

On this last night, good luck Benny

[innovation]

My boyz are taking on water.....Miley looks like low hanging fruit.

[ChalkyDog]

Like the pick. Miley might be setup to fade a bit, but Feldman is fukking awful.

Vs. a team like the Dbags that are very good at moving runners (which will be in abundance with Feldman on the mound), this sets up for a W. The Dbacks bullpen, has also become a lot more reliable.

Not a bad play, might tail. Not on Baltimore, so good luck.

[infamousbacardi]

Good luck BBN. I have to go against you in this one I think though.


Feldman has only had 2 road starts for the O's so far. Gave up 2 ERs in 6 IP @ CHW, then only gave up 2 ER in 8 IP @ KC. Both of his road starts for the O's have been solid and both have been O's victories by a combined score of 13-4.

Arizona has lost 4 of their last 5 as home favorite.

Arizona just lost one of their best bats in Cody Ross who hit .301 in July and was hitting .367 in August while hitting 5th in that lineup.

Overall...Baltimore is hotter and better team. Only edge here is slight AZ advantage being at home and then also of course Miley on the mound...but BLT is a different lineup than most, very good of course.

Good luck BBN, you've been pretty solid here, but this is a tough one IMO.

[El Nino]

Miley's struggled with the 1st inning. Once he gets past that, he grooves nicely. High WHIP, but he's only had more than 3ER in 4 starts all year. He's a gamer. Dbacks offense struggling and no Ross, no Chavez, looks like a AAA prospect starting in the OF tonight. As far as people ragging on the Dbacks bullpen, they have been fine lately outside of Hernandez. It's amazing how far this guy has fallen off from the last 2 years. Goes from having one of the highest K rates as a reliever last season to a gas can this season. The Heath Bell experience is always a sweat.

I see a lot of public money betting on Balty come game time. BOL, Dbacks need a win here.

[billysink]

I don't know how you bet this one without seeing the lineups.

Cody Ross looks like a big loss but to be honest the guy is not much against a righthanded sinkerballer. Dude bats around .220 against righties and .391 against lefties. That he will be missed tonight against Feldman is flawed logic. Chavez on the other hand will be missed here.

Gibby is hard to read with the lineup card on any given day.

Miley has what is starting to become a noticeable drop in velocity and a bit up in the zone has not faced a hot hitting team in a month, dude is no where near as good as his lines indicate. Feldman actually rejoins the rotation tonight and should be rested after an 8 day rest. He showed signs of tiring before that. That may help regain some of the down and out movement on that sinkerball.

Tough one here if you look at it in depth.

[BennyBigNuts]

I don't know how you bet this one without seeing the lineups.

Cody Ross looks like a big loss but to be honest the guy is not much against a righthanded sinkerballer. Dude bats around .220 against righties and .391 against lefties. That he will be missed tonight against Feldman is flawed logic. Chavez on the other hand will be missed here.

Gibby is hard to read with the lineup card on any given day.

Miley has what is starting to become a noticeable drop in velocity and a bit up in the zone has not faced a hot hitting team in a month, dude is no where near as good as his lines indicate. Feldman actually rejoins the rotation tonight and should be rested after an 8 day rest. He showed signs of tiring before that. That may help regain some of the down and out movement on that sinkerball.

Tough one here if you look at it in depth.

I don't ever sweat daily lineups. Pointless.
Unless it's Miggy or Trout being questionable, it doesn't really matter.
You sit a 270 hitter, hes getting subbed in with a 260 hitter, doesn't make much of a diff.
Cody Ross? LOL. What does he have like 10 hr's this year? A 260 hitter?
Why would Cody Ross ever play a factor capping a game? He's barely an average player.
Just sounds like Archie material to me.

Already said in the write-up Miley isn't the kind of pitcher that his numbers show as well. It's not rocket science, everyone reads the same shit before a game.
You ride the hot hands, against the cold hands, ride hot teams, against the cold teams, and feed off of what you watch.
The more games you watch in mlb, the better edge you can develop.

[billysink]

I don't ever sweat daily lineups. Pointless.
Unless it's Miggy or Trout being questionable, it doesn't really matter.
You sit a 270 hitter, hes getting subbed in with a 260 hitter, doesn't make much of a diff.
Cody Ross? LOL. What does he have like 10 hr's this year? A 260 hitter?
Why would Cody Ross ever play a factor capping a game? He's barely an average player.
Just sounds like Archie material to me.

Already said in the write-up Miley isn't the kind of pitcher that his numbers show as well. It's not rocket science, everyone reads the same shit before a game.
You ride the hot hands, against the cold hands, ride hot teams, against the cold teams, and feed off of what you watch.
The more games you watch in mlb, the better edge you can develop.

Cody Ross a huge handicapping factor. Against lefties only. When he bats 5th against a lefty, Goldi gets more fastballs.

Lineups matter not only for who is in them but in what order they are placed. Lineups matter in some games more than others and for some teams more than others. Detroit and LAA are predictable. Arizona and teams like San Diego, the Mets lineups are extremely significant. That you chose not to factor them in may suit you but it is just ignoring pertinent information for others. Would you rather get beat not knowing or maybe layoff because you did?

[No coincidences]

Why are you getting Miley at home against a gascan like Feldman for only -113?

[BadLuckSanta]

Great picture

[sweep]

On this last night, good luck Benny

Deemer doing the backstroke

[No coincidences]

Cody Ross a huge handicapping factor. Against lefties only. When he bats 5th against a lefty, Goldi gets more fastballs.

Lineups matter not only for who is in them but in what order they are placed. Lineups matter in some games more than others and for some teams more than others. Detroit and LAA are predictable. Arizona and teams like San Diego, the Mets lineups are extremely significant. That you chose not to factor them in may suit you but it is just ignoring pertinent information for others. Would you rather get beat not knowing or maybe layoff because you did?

Well said as usual billy.

[lesterdymond]

I will tail for a C note Benny. Gut never lies.

[Gus Fring]

Billy just owned Benny

[billysink]

Like the Arizona lineup tonight. Good speed at top, would have loved to see Gregorius in the two hole but 3-5 should hit Feldman hard.

Orioles have really struggled badly against lefties of late. Beaten by Saunders, shut out by Lester and that Oberfukker kid in Houston.

Good luck everyone.

[billysink]

Billy just owned Benny

\

Billy don't own anyone Fringer. Just trying to give a viewpoint. Everyone handles their business differently.

Benny has won more than his share without my two bits.

[blackeyeshamus]

Like the Arizona lineup tonight. Good speed at top, would have loved to see Gregorius in the two hole but 3-5 should hit Feldman hard.

Orioles have really struggled badly against lefties of late. Beaten by Saunders, shut out by Lester and that Oberfukker kid in Houston.

Good luck everyone.

thanks, billy, benny, nocoin, lesterdymd, and co.
deal me in, gentlemen. I'm rollin' with the d-bags!

[innovation]

And I will roll O's -1.5 +170

tremendous value imo

[anthonydiamondLC]

There is a lot of good discussion going for this game. I'll add my .2 cents. Miley lifetime in interleague play is like 4-1 with about a 1.30 era. For whatever reason he seems to pitch well against the American League.

[sweep]

roof opened or closed

[El Nino]

roof opened or closed

Closed for the whole series.
Been closed for a while now, pal. They close it for good once it reaches triple digits. Too fukkin' hot.

[ChalkyDog]

Closed for the whole series.
Been closed for a while now, pal. They close it for good once it reaches triple digits. Too fukkin' hot.

Thank jesus for that.

The walk to the ballpark is bad enough.

The cold AC hitting you on the back of the dome is the only thing that allows this city to live.

Also, Benny, I jumped on. I looked at this up and down - decided it was a pass because there aren't any clear cut things about this matchup that I liked for or against, but my other bet is quite possibly retarded, and wanted something else to watch.

So, let's cash this shit!

[jose21_us]

Not sure BIg Dik I love the Os here for some reason....

[The Kraken]

Terrible looking line for you.

[BennyBigNuts]

Cody Ross a huge handicapping factor. Against lefties only. When he bats 5th against a lefty, Goldi gets more fastballs.

Lineups matter not only for who is in them but in what order they are placed. Lineups matter in some games more than others and for some teams more than others. Detroit and LAA are predictable. Arizona and teams like San Diego, the Mets lineups are extremely significant. That you chose not to factor them in may suit you but it is just ignoring pertinent information for others. Would you rather get beat not knowing or maybe layoff because you did?

Guys don't think like that.
No one is scared of Cody fkn Ross Mr. Sink. And Goldschmidt isn't thinking "Oh no how are these guys gonna pitch me with Ross out?" He's barely average.
Every righty hits lefties better etc.
It's not a stat you couldn't guess in the dark without looking it up.
I understand what you're saying, but those Archie stats don't mean as much as ppl think.
But that's why this thread is here for info. Brings a good discussion.

Lineups mean virtually nothing when factoring a wager. The managers play the right guys 95% of the time. Even the bad skippers make the right plays on paper. If I lose a game 1-0 I'm not gonna think Cody Ross EVER cost me a game, when the guy replacing him isn't far off.

[BennyBigNuts]

Line has dropped to -105 basically all over.
Good time to pound it now boys if you haven't.

[Ghenghis Kahn]

Why are you getting Miley at home against a gascan like Feldman for only -113?

yeah feldman's a gas can.

[Ghenghis Kahn]

rlm mondays...

sorry pal, it's gotta be balty or pass.