Even The Best Handicappers In The World Only Hit Around 52% Wins A Year

Darkside Magick · 08-11-13, 09:53 PM

Wrong! !!!!!!!

PAULYPOKER · 08-11-13, 09:54 PM

The Giant · 08-11-13, 09:55 PM

The pros hit higher than 52%, pal.

Russian Rocket · 08-11-13, 09:57 PM

Originally posted by The Giant

The pros hit higher than 52%, pal.

I have no doubt that TheGiant hits over 60% mark

The Giant · 08-11-13, 10:02 PM

Originally posted by Russian Rocket

I have no doubt that TheGiant hits over 60% mark

I wish. Nobody hits 60% long-term.

Except Seaweed.

Russian Rocket · 08-11-13, 10:09 PM

Originally posted by The Giant

I wish. Nobody hits 60% long-term.

Except Seaweed.

TheMoneyShot · 08-11-13, 10:16 PM

Here's the article

Article

It totally made me think of wagering differently. I'm not perfect... but it's up to you to handle money pressure. Have some balls. Don't double on emotion. Just be smart about what you're trying to do. What is that game telling you for the 2H etc. That's all I was saying. Yes, yes yes... I know in theory... you should never double up because emotion is a factor. But what if... what if... you are really analyzing the game well? Pull the trigger.

PAULYPOKER · 08-11-13, 10:22 PM

If you are hitting below 55% on the -EV normal play,you are in the red,period dot end.........

PAULYPOKER · 08-11-13, 10:27 PM

Even The Best Handicappers In The World Only Hit Around ~~52%~~56%-59% Wins A Year

What is the only difference between a pro and a degenerate?

Money management..........

Darkside Magick · 08-11-13, 10:29 PM

Originally posted by PAULYPOKER

Even The Best Handicappers In The World Only Hit Around ~~52%~~56%-59% Wins A Year

What is the only difference between a pro and a degenerate?

Money management..........

Exactly

Gus Fring · 08-11-13, 10:30 PM

They all lose at the end. Most just quicker than the otherS. It's a -even hobby

TheMoneyShot · 08-12-13, 02:48 AM

Originally posted by PAULYPOKER

Even The Best Handicappers In The World Only Hit Around ~~52%~~56%-59% Wins A Year

What is the only difference between a pro and a degenerate?

Money management..........

Originally posted by Darkside Magick

Exactly

Never said I didn't disagree with that statement. Money management can be defined by multiple meanings. Simply managing the situation. Doing your job... if you take it (sports wagering) seriously. I was basically saying... you have to believe in yourself as well. Most people get in the habit of just making plays... like throwing darts at a wall. You really have to believe in what you're doing. Have a system... your special system. Managing the situation also means... stick to the system... what that system calls for. Whatever it may be.

If I got lucky... I was due. But by the same token... if a person gets a little a momentum... how many times have we broke our own momentum by doing dumb things? Many times. Again, manage the situation. Believe in yourself. Use your firepower wisely.

jjgold · 08-12-13, 12:11 PM

Tough to win without low juice books

Americans at a disadvantage

Cannot really go by winning percentage because of juice

It's all about profit /loss and not wins and loses

ChalkyDog · 08-12-13, 12:15 PM

Is the percentage more important than actual money amount? 52% seems more conceptual.

I know for a fact, that if I only hit at 52% consistently, I'd never have a withdrawl. I don't bet -110 consistently. For instance, I just paid the highest juice of the season with the Dodgers game last night.

This has to be much more important to 'pro' (those who do this for a living) than the 95% of bettors out there. I'm recreational, and long-term doesn't compute to me. I start each season clean, as in - week 1 of NCAAFB is the start of a new season.

The last two seasons I've made a profit. That has zero carry over on how I approach this year. And I find zero benefit to computing a winning percentage, when I can easily just figure out withdrawls-deposits, which is obviously the much better indicator of success.

Darkside Magick · 08-12-13, 12:17 PM

Agreed chalky....it is about the money...I leave the percentages to the math geeks

RudyRuetigger · 08-12-13, 12:33 PM

take a break pal, youve been tanning too much

Ghenghis Kahn · 08-12-13, 12:34 PM

you can hit 52% picking -200 and still be a loser.

you have to pick 52.5% betting -110 to be a winning capper.

bubblebuttluv · 08-12-13, 12:39 PM

Just bet football and you'll be fine, even if you have to pay up in juice. Here is a winner for you week 1: South Carolina to beat North Carolina at the moneyline at -400. They're trying to give this one to you, and that hardly ever happens.

C-Gold · 08-12-13, 02:18 PM

Originally posted by TheMoneyShot

I don't remember where I read this... but I read it somewhere about 3 days ago. It's a true statement. So technically depending on how patient you really are... or how hot/cold you're running... you factor in vig... you aren't making much.

They say you should never... never double up on any wager. Well... I believe you have no other choice but to take chances... If you screw up on any double play... or near triple... you're fukked. Yes... true statement. I guess what I'm trying to say fellas... we all need to do what you have to do to win. Make it worth it...

My record is absolutely horrible for the first week in preseason football. 4-4 50% + 3864 All Plays Total

But my last 6 plays (in 4 days) are 4-2 66.6% +4364

How is that possible? Every double up... and near triple up won. You have to take chances if you're going to win. Maybe I like a little excitement? Maybe I want the blood pumping? Maybe I want to die of a heart attack? But as my favorite ex-coach Herm Edwards said... "You play to win the game."

The key point is that you have to take chances.

pavyracer · 08-12-13, 02:28 PM

If you bet dogs only you don't have to hit 52% to win.

El Nino · 08-12-13, 02:34 PM

Originally posted by RudyRuetigger

take a break pal, youve been tanning too much

Money, that syphilis gotten to your brain? RAS hits 56% or better consistently on totals. If you bet bases and hockey % doesn't mean shit. It's all about units, baby.

TheMoneyShot · 08-12-13, 05:09 PM

Originally posted by El Nino

Money, that syphilis gotten to your brain? RAS hits 56% or better consistently on totals. If you bet bases and hockey % doesn't mean shit. It's all about units, baby.

Hey Nino! What's up brother? I wish a knew the first step in wagering totals. I have no clue. Maybe I win 30% on totals... football, baseball, hockey... it doesn't matter. Have no clue. I bet the under... I get 5 goals in the first period. If I bet the over... I get a 2-0 shutout. I'm sure there are patterns somewhere... but again... just don't have the knowledge in that area. I strictly stick with game spreads. I even try to stay away from ML's during football season. How many times have 1 point or 0.5 points clipped you in a game? I'd rather get +100 odds and take a spread than to risk +140 ML odds and take a ML. That's just my theory.

Again... a lot of theories. I'm just saying... you need to know when to take a chance. Otherwise we're just wasting our time doing this.

I had one more point... and I forgot it. Damn it. Damn phone calls.

El Nino · 08-12-13, 05:26 PM

Originally posted by TheMoneyShot

Hey Nino! What's up brother? I wish a knew the first step in wagering totals. I have no clue. Maybe I win 30% on totals... football, baseball, hockey... it doesn't matter. Have no clue. I bet the under... I get 5 goals in the first period. If I bet the over... I get a 2-0 shutout. I'm sure there are patterns somewhere... but again... just don't have the knowledge in that area. I strictly stick with game spreads. I even try to stay away from ML's during football season. How many times have 1 point or 0.5 points clipped you in a game? I'd rather get +100 odds and take a spread than to risk +140 ML odds and take a ML. That's just my theory.

Again... a lot of theories. I'm just saying... you need to know when to take a chance. Otherwise we're just wasting our time doing this.

I had one more point... and I forgot it. Damn it. Damn phone calls.

Not a big totals guy either. Occasionally throw a few out.

The Kraken · 08-12-13, 05:34 PM

Originally posted by PAULYPOKER

If you are hitting below 55% on the -EV normal play,you are in the red,period dot end.........

3rd grade math called and disagrees

PAULYPOKER · 08-12-13, 05:38 PM

I never focus on winning %.......

I focus only on watching $$$$ numbers in my accounts swell to epic proportions..........

leetreaper · 08-12-13, 05:56 PM

Originally posted by PAULYPOKER

I never focus on winning %.......

I focus only on watching $$$$ numbers in my accounts swell to epic proportions..........

The Kraken · 08-12-13, 06:07 PM

Originally posted by PAULYPOKER

I never focus on winning %.......

I focus only on watching $$$$ numbers in my accounts swell to epic proportions..........

But shouldn't you be focusing on hitting over 55% because if you're not hitting 55%, you're losing money. Period dot end.

leetreaper · 08-12-13, 06:55 PM

Originally posted by The Kraken

But shouldn't you be focusing on hitting over 55% because if you're not hitting 55%, you're losing money. Period dot end.

P.S. You cant tell he's clueless...

Big Bear · 08-12-13, 08:39 PM

Originally posted by bubblebuttluv

Just bet football and you'll be fine, even if you have to pay up in juice. Here is a winner for you week 1: South Carolina to beat North Carolina at the moneyline at -400. They're trying to give this one to you, and that hardly ever happens.

have some balls bruh lay the 10 points. South Carolina will be out to make a statement in that game!

bubblebuttluv · 08-12-13, 10:47 PM

Originally posted by Big Bear

have some balls bruh lay the 10 points. South Carolina will be out to make a statement in that game!

I might throw a little on it

The Kraken · 08-14-13, 02:53 PM

How bout a vid for the fam

fukk wit me big timer

Big Bear · 08-14-13, 03:12 PM

Collin Cowherd hits over 52% with his blazin 5

TheMoneyShot · 08-18-13, 11:47 PM

So far this preseason 8-7 +4565

Taking shots still working out. Almost got pinched tonight. Sometimes you have to go all in.

vividjohn45 · 08-19-13, 12:41 AM

Originally posted by TheMoneyShot

Hey Nino! What's up brother? EI wish a knew the first step in wagering totals. I have no clue. Maybe I win 30% on totals... football, baseball, hockey... it doesn't matter. Have no clue. I bet the under... I get 5 goals in the first period. If I bet the over... I get a 2-0 shutout. I'm sure there are patterns somewhere... but again... just don't have the knowledge in that area. I strictly stick with game spreads. I even try to stay away from ML's during football season. How many times have 1 point or 0.5 points clipped you in a game? I'd rather get +100 odds and take a spread than to risk +140 ML odds and take a ML. That's just my theory.

Again... a lot of theories. I'm just saying... you need to know when to take a chance. Otherwise we're just wasting our time doing this.

I had one more point... and I forgot it. Damn it. Damn phone calls.

. Totals are better. Hamels. Is 8 17 under pitcher. Rays guy today is a 5 16 under pitcher. Kuroda under 10x in a row. Kershaw. Big under pitcher. But ml. Always. 200. Bovada. Had hamels at u8. 125. Dude had 16 unders b4 today and posted a 8. Ez.