What Is Your Favorite Stat When Deciding A Baseball Bet?

[Mr KLC]

Like I've always said, I'm pretty much a casual gambler. Never really paid a lot of attention to sabermetrics, or just detailed statistics. Recently, I've been looking at the WAR and xFIP of a pitcher. Any other stats out there that have helped you guys out?

[jjgold]

JR no stats for me

Hunch bettor or maybe what team did the last few games

KLC good luck

[Chi_archie]

i've started to think it is worthless.

but looking at the starting pitcher's historical stats against the starting lineup that day

for instance here is the White Sox's current roster's career stats vs Rick Porcello whom they face today.

look at who is in the lineup and if you are leaning one way or another or want to pound a bet. I look at this last...

[Smoke]

trixtrix once told me to always factor in a pitchers WHIP when placing a wager

[Ryeskernatorr]

Just the starting pitching matchup.

[russman]

Like I've always said, I'm pretty much a casual gambler. Never really paid a lot of attention to sabermetrics, or just detailed statistics. Recently, I've been looking at the WAR and xFIP of a pitcher. Any other stats out there that have helped you guys out?

WAR is tough to figure out for me. If I understand correctly, it's cumulative. The more you play, the higher (or lower if it's in the negatives) the WAR will be. So a guy with 60 IP will have a lower WAR than a guy with 120 IP, but that doesn't necessarily mean anything.

[LT Profits]

Pitcher xFIP vs. Team wRC+

[matthew919]

If you think outside the box, there are some angles you can play blindly in MLB and make huge profit.

[Big Bear]

what a pitcher did in his last 3 starts.

[cala56]

1-Pitcher WHIP first. ERA second.
2-Team AVG and WINNINGS. LAST 4 SERIES.

[cala56]

3.bullpen.

[Down_Goes Bookie]

So many stats, so little time…

Of course basic ERA WHIP and BAA.

Pitching performance by splits – home/away, day/night. Question – anyone know where to find splits of home/day, home/night, away/day, away/night? No luck finding those combinations.

Pitching record vs. opponent over this season and/or past couple of years, and at opponent park if away game.

Peripherals… usually look at FIP and xFIP and BAPIB. E.g. checking out Leake this morning, dude has a 3.98 FIP vs. 2.59 ERA -- ack.

Mostly for LHPs, check opponent team’s metrics vs. LHP. E.g. Natinals dead last in BA in MLB vs. LHP.

For SPs relatively new to MLB, will check minor league stats.

Check the SP's game log for the season to get a sense of whether performance is trending up or down and strength of recent opposition.

Read the AP previews, they always have some interesting angles.

Factor in any key players out for the game e.g. David Wright to the DL just about cuts in half what little offense the Mets had.

[Mike Huntertz]

1-Pitcher WHIP first. ERA second.
2-Team AVG and WINNINGS. LAST 4 SERIES.

Pretty much the same here.

[face]

whip is affected by pitching around guys and intentional walks
maybe it's a good indicator anyway, i've just never trusted it

i like looking at number of strikeouts

[Vinnie Paz]

K/9 is important to me, I love strikeout pitchers

Look what pitches the guy throws and how well he throws them, match that up with how well or poorly the opposing team hits those specific pitches. Sometimes a guy can be a gas can or whatever but he can match up real well with certain lineups. Then you see the threads on here of omg how is this guy throwing a gem vs the tigers?!?!? Must be rigged!! I check that pitchers batting avg of each pitch as well, which one gets him the most strikeouts so you kinda have an idea where he's going when looking for the K.

WHERE he throws them as well, recent velocity too, if I see a downward dip in velocity and the innings are starting to pile up you can gauge that late season dead arm, or regression. Personally I don't really care how a guy does vs a certain team in previous yrs because lineups change, look at how they do vs the individual hitters. Don't worry about this guys numbers vs that team from 3 seasons ago. Irrelevant today. Obviously walks are important too. Gb/fb ratio. How often he throws inside and out the strike zone, some guys are great at getting batters to chase outside, some make their living pounding the zone, some guys try to pound the zone but just end up getting pounded. Check bullpen usages to get an idea of who could be going today. Basically check every angle I can get my fingers on, the advanced stuff is where its at though.

[innovation]

I look to fade non Aces who have won 2 or more straight matchups vs the team they are facing.

[jay89]

PITCHING:
1. for divisional matchups where a pitcher might have pitched a few times already in the season vs a team - look at that last outing
2. home/away splits - citi field/pnc park are forgiving for pitchers, coors field - rockies pitchers pitch better away from home etc.

BATTING:
1. team's scored runs in the current and past series
2. splits vs left handed starters

[jjgold]

Baseball is a lot about streaks whether pitching or the actual team

Hitting does not mean a lot anymore because pitchers wah ahead of hitters now

[iifold]

Pitcher vs. Hitters #'s

Ballpark/Weather

Players recent form (look for drastic change)

[Brutus84]

I generally find out if either starting pitcher is going thru family issues. Like if Kate Upton or some other hot chick left them. IE Justin Verlander.

[No coincidences]

[TheMoneyShot]

Pitcher xFIP vs. Team wRC+

LT what does this mean in English?

[LT Profits]

LT what does this mean in English?

http://www.fangraphs.com/leaders.asp...ter=&players=0 Glossary on top right.

[Ghenghis Kahn]

team's overall testosterone level.

[No coincidences]

LT what does this mean in English?

Are you being serious, or do you just not bet baseball?

[Inkwell77]

A lot of the stuff in this thread seems more pertinent for first 5 inning bets rather than full game bets.

[No coincidences]

A lot of the stuff in this thread seems more pertinent for first 5 inning bets rather than full game bets.

It's always funny when I see "starting pitchers" as a response.

[artyfudgepacker]

theres a few capper on sbr that i tail .thats it

[TheMoneyShot]

http://www.fangraphs.com/leaders.asp...ter=&players=0 Glossary on top right.

Thanks LT for the link I will research this. I need all the help I can get.

Are you being serious, or do you just not bet baseball?

I suck at baseball. I love the game. But after studying this sport gambling wise for 14 years or so... I still haven't found a pattern that you enjoy betting this sport. It's failure after failure... after failure. This is the first year of MLB I took off... I made probably 5-6 wagers so far this season. 1-5 I just don't get what you're looking for??? And what angle or approach you take?

[antifoil]

i've started to think it is worthless.

but looking at the starting pitcher's historical stats against the starting lineup that day

for instance here is the White Sox's current roster's career stats vs Rick Porcello whom they face today.

look at who is in the lineup and if you are leaning one way or another or want to pound a bet. I look at this last...

the problem with historical stats is the sample size wouldn't be large enough to pass any kind of correlation margin of error.


it would be like playing a posters picks after they had a gain after 20 bets.

[TheMLBKing]

Since the all-star break, looking at no coin's picks have helped a lot. When I like something and he's on the other side, I know my bet has a 90% chance of cashing. Feels good man.

[Reload]

Trends vs lefty/righty pitching and home/road

[ChuckyTheGoat]

K/9 is important to me, I love strikeout pitchers

Look what pitches the guy throws and how well he throws them, match that up with how well or poorly the opposing team hits those specific pitches. Sometimes a guy can be a gas can or whatever but he can match up real well with certain lineups. Then you see the threads on here of omg how is this guy throwing a gem vs the tigers?!?!? Must be rigged!! I check that pitchers batting avg of each pitch as well, which one gets him the most strikeouts so you kinda have an idea where he's going when looking for the K.

WHERE he throws them as well, recent velocity too, if I see a downward dip in velocity and the innings are starting to pile up you can gauge that late season dead arm, or regression. Personally I don't really care how a guy does vs a certain team in previous yrs because lineups change, look at how they do vs the individual hitters. Don't worry about this guys numbers vs that team from 3 seasons ago. Irrelevant today. Obviously walks are important too. Gb/fb ratio. How often he throws inside and out the strike zone, some guys are great at getting batters to chase outside, some make their living pounding the zone, some guys try to pound the zone but just end up getting pounded. Check bullpen usages to get an idea of who could be going today. Basically check every angle I can get my fingers on, the advanced stuff is where its at though.

This is good stuff. I used to love pitcher K/BB ratios. Probably overrates the soft-tosser too much. Now, there is evidence that hi-velocity hurlers are the way to go. Batter reaction-time is shortened so much.

[Cuse0323]

I like to see the - and drunk me says that's a sure winner.

[Bbr]

The amount of sleep the starting pitcher has had in the past 3 nights.