What Is Your Favorite Stat When Deciding A Baseball Bet?

[sweethook]

Trends vs lefty/righty pitching and home/road

i like this

[sbrhedge]

The amount of sleep the starting pitcher has had in the past 3 nights.

+1

One of the pitchers' nickname is "sexman" (no kidding). We figured out that he hated his wife and was banging as much as he could when he was on the road. He kept losing his home starts because of domestic problems, and he was winning on the road. Different chick in each city apparently.

I do like PitchFx a lot for fundamental analysis.

[eidolon]

Like I've always said, I'm pretty much a casual gambler. Never really paid a lot of attention to sabermetrics, or just detailed statistics. Recently, I've been looking at the WAR and xFIP of a pitcher. Any other stats out there that have helped you guys out?

I base mine on if the pitcher is circumcised or uncircumcised

[Mr KLC]

Normally, a baseball broadcast involves citations of things like a pitcher’s win-loss record, his ERA, and a hitter’s batting average and RBI totals. That’s how the game has used statistics for decades. If it ain’t broke, don’t fix it, right?

Of course, front offices don’t generally value these statistics. As the years have passed, fewer writers place as much value on them when determining Cy Young and MVP candidates. First with the advent of sabermetrics in the 1980s, PITCHf/x a decade ago, and Statcast in 2015, teams, writers, and fans have more access to better information than they ever had before.

The baseball media landscape has lagged behind in TV and radio broadcasts of games. Win-loss records and RBIs still populate onscreen graphics, while the ex-players in the booth will often cite this or that split of a pitcher’s ERA, or a hitter’s batting average over the past month. Things have slowly begun to evolve, but TV remains behind the curve.

Enter Brian Kenny and MLB Network. For the third straight season, Kenny will devote his show, “MLB Now,” to a sabermetric-oriented in-game broadcast, using advanced statistics to illuminate the action and the players on the field. The Chicago Cubs will face the San Francisco Giants Wednesday afternoon, and Kenny will be on the call with former player and current MLB Network analyst Mark DeRosa, MLB.com Statcast columnist Mike Petriello, and New York Post columnist and MLB Network insider Joel Sherman.

Many viewers might have seen OPS or FIP on one of their local broadcasts, but Kenny and his team will make these numbers and others like them the central tools of illustration. Statcast and Pitchcast data, only in their infancy when Kenny first unveiled this TV innovation in 2015, will now be fundamental. This might be the first time fans will see wRC+ or Expected Weighted On-Base Average (xwOBA) on their television screens.

Kenny may be the biggest stathead in the televised baseball world–and a firebrand to boot–but he understands that the game itself is paramount to the discussion.

“I have always maintained that you don’t have to call the baseball game the way baseball has been called for the last seven decades, eight decades,” Kenny told me over the phone. “It can be called differently. At the same time, there is a reason that has worked for all those decades. I think the challenge for the industry is to define what is the best way to call a baseball game–something that is not just a 1940s-style broadcast, but also something pleasant to listen to and informative.”

It’s a lofty goal and a tricky balancing act. We know that wRC+ is an infinitely better descriptive tool for offense than batting average, but how many people know what wRC+ is? How much can explanation overwhelm calling the action? Balls and strikes have to come first. What’s more, the show is a whiparound-style broadcast, with a talk show panel inserting not only advanced numbers but itself into the game action, instead of a two- or three-man booth onsite. A lot of plates will be spinning in the air.

Kenny is all too aware of the challenge, and hopes to make the whole process organic.

“We work with our researchers to build our full-screen [graphics] for the Cubs and Giants that we think are indicative of their production” Kenny says. “What we would love to do is not force a number on anybody, but [use them] just to illuminate the game. We only use numbers if they are applicable. As always, you want to use the numbers to answer the question or discuss the question, rather than say, ‘Here are some numbers that we want you to look at.’

“We would definitely take the time to explain things like Expected Weighted On-Base Average or Catch Probability if they come up organically. The beauty of calling a baseball game is that there is time to explain these things neatly and quickly. I think part of our challenge is to speak our language, ask the right questions, try to answer them the best we can in an entertaining way, and try to not do too much.”

Letting the game breathe will be critical. A lot has changed since Kenny’s first go-round with the format two years ago. With a more stat-literate audience, and with more confidence to give space to the game itself, Kenny hopes the game will feel just like any other broadcast, but smarter.

“I think our goal now is to just do a smart telecast,” he says. “Obviously, we wouldn’t be doing this sort of telecast for 162 games, but but I think we’re going to have a high level of conversation as it pertains to the game, not just having a talk show around it. We’ll be applying what we know and how we normally talk on ‘MLB Now’ to a live baseball game.”

[jjgold]

I just look at the last three or 4 Games Best Way to handicap

[Sam Odom]

team with better last 10 , at home and dog

must have all three

[klemopixx]

what a pitcher did in his last 3 starts.

Bingo!

Especially when better the o/u

[The Hat]

Baseball is a lot about streaks whether pitching or the actual team

Hitting does not mean a lot anymore because pitchers wah ahead of hitters now

Nope. Hitters way ahead of pitching, especially this year. Many stats to back this, but from a gambling mind just take a look at how high the over/under totals have been this year.

[teecee]

The fact that I am down about 30 units. Have just started to fade my gut feeling in baseball. Decided this when Indians hit walkoff grandslam to fukk my Rockies +2.5 play.

[shooterman]

This is not a stat but I like to take what I consider to be a quality pitcher coming off a poor or short performance and look to send it in on that guy who is going to be focused and pissed.

[bonz]

Usually bet what I'm feeling then do some research after.

[stevenash]

WH/IP which is basically OBA.
If a pitcher has a WH/IP of 1.4, he's putting on 13 base runners per nine innings.
If you're putting on 13 per nine, chances are four or more are going to score.
But check out the SLG also, if a pitcher has a 1.4 WH/IP but some ridiculous low slugging percentage against, say like .320, then he could be in play, especially if his K ratio is on the plus side.

Then there's guys like Nova, who has a low WH/IP, but he doesn't K many.
So if he does get in trouble, he has to rely on the ball in play to get him out of a jam. And when a ball is in play, anything can happen.

I personally like guys with sneaky strikeout stuff.
Like how many of you knew Daniel Lamet K's 11 per nine, with a ridiculous low WH/IP too.
Thing is he gives up more than a homer a game, I use him against high K, low power lineups.
I'll stay away from teams that mash, like the Reds, Dodgers, or Nats (when Harper is in)

Chad Kuhl is another sneaky one.