Did anyone else pay attention to line movement for Angels vs Jays on 8/1?

billysink · 08-01-13, 11:20 PM

Originally posted by Big Bear

80% of money was on the Angels.

Line went from -120 to -104 right before game time.

Yet the obvious happened. Josh Johnson got rocked again.

Now i had no play on this game b/c i was spooked by the reverse line movement...so now i'm starting to think this shit does not apply to baseball.. only football and basketball...

Is it safe to say I can ignore line movement in MLB?

Ever see a score that read Blue Jays 4 Line Movement 0

Big Bear · 08-01-13, 11:28 PM

Originally posted by billysink

Ever see a score that read Blue Jays 4 Line Movement 0

no i dont.

But i see a lot of posters talking about chasing steam and reverse line movement.

So your saying who the public is on etc... is not something smart to consider before finalizing a bet?

curtrambus · 08-01-13, 11:38 PM

Usually matters just been a fkd up 3 weeks. Anybody sharp has been getting hammered lately and every fktard thinks he's a genius. There was 1 big favorite who lost today can't believe the Cubs lost after getting up 2-0 literally the 3rd time this week I'v missed a 3 team parlay and the game I needed to close team up 2-0 and blew the lead. So annoying I'd rather they just get blown out then make me think I'm going to hit it.

OneTouch00 · 08-01-13, 11:44 PM

after a 6 game losing streak and almost beating texas by putting up 11 runs and texas comes back like that taking the angels shoulda been easy...

billysink · 08-01-13, 11:49 PM

Originally posted by Big Bear

no i dont.

But i see a lot of posters talking about chasing steam and reverse line movement.

So your saying who the public is on etc... is not something smart to consider before finalizing a bet?

I never gave a half a fukk about it in all my years.

If the line you see presents value to your methodology why would you give a rat's ass what anyone else was doing?

cala56 · 08-01-13, 11:49 PM

Do you pay attention in the slow fastball of josh jhonson? Easy bet. LOL

billysink · 08-01-13, 11:54 PM

Originally posted by cala56

Do you pay attention in the slow fastball of josh jhonson? Easy bet. LOL

Not slow at all. Poorly spotted but he was over 93 quite a bit tonight.

billysink · 08-02-13, 12:07 AM

alternative right now is Romero or some not ready kid.

Jayvegas420 · 08-02-13, 12:13 AM

Never occurred to me
What's this now

ItsMeMrMattE · 08-02-13, 12:15 AM

just remember, line movement will not change the outcome of the game. who ever wins was going to win regardless of a line even existing. line movement is just a reaction to money coming in. a late reverse line move like that is probably the result of a big or a few big bets coming in against the public. just because they are big bets tho doesnt mean they are automatic winners. i like to use movement to build confidence in my pick, maybe add a little more on the bet, when it agrees with me, and try to disregard it when it disagrees with my pick.

MagicDiceFlow · 08-02-13, 12:25 AM

16 cents is not much steam to be honest. A true steam move is 30 cents or more imo. Even then, the majority of games are not decided with steam movement. Maybe 1 out of 10 games. Not significant enough to try and find an edge in steam moves. On tennis lines, you'll see line moves of 40 cents to even a whopping 90 cents or more on a daily basis. You'll lose in the long run if you try to chase steam(along with making you crazy and second guessing yourself).

Just put in your due diligence and stick to your guns. You'll have a better win percentage in the long run and you'll feel better about yourself.

CanuckG · 08-02-13, 12:58 AM

So some heavy money obviously came on the Jays and they lost. No surprise.

Vinnie Paz · 08-02-13, 12:59 AM

16 is a lot in baseball actually, I'd say

Tennis is different, usually those massive 50c+ moves are what guys look for, but you'll never see that in mlb.

jjgold · 08-02-13, 05:38 AM

BigBear nothihg gets by you
Did you bet Angels??

Squares like me have been winning

PickoMoff · 08-02-13, 06:37 AM

Originally posted by curtrambus

usually matters just been a fkd up 3 weeks. Anybody sharp has been getting hammered lately and every fktard thinks he's a genius.

this!!!!!

PickoMoff · 08-02-13, 06:40 AM

Originally posted by MagicDiceFlow

16 cents is not much steam to be honest. A true steam move is 30 cents or more imo. Even then, the majority of games are not decided with steam movement. Maybe 1 out of 10 games. Not significant enough to try and find an edge in steam moves. On tennis lines, you'll see line moves of 40 cents to even a whopping 90 cents or more on a daily basis. You'll lose in the long run if you try to chase steam(along with making you crazy and second guessing yourself).

Just put in your due diligence and stick to your guns. You'll have a better win percentage in the long run and you'll feel better about yourself.

Indeed!

Big Bear · 08-02-13, 07:19 AM

other than the line movement making me second guess ... i guess i also didnt trust an Angels team that was coming off 6 straight defeats and wasnt sure about Garett Richards..

from now on i definitely wont factor line movment in MLB.

But i know it means something in basketball and football. Maybe b/c those sports are fixed and baseball is not.

Solid · 08-02-13, 09:16 AM

I had the over in this game and the line moved at first towards the under, and then it moved overwhelmingly to the over.

I should have laid more $$$ down when then line moved to the under, but you get tentative with line moves.

newguy · 08-02-13, 09:20 AM

Originally posted by curtrambus

Usually matters just been a fkd up 3 weeks. Anybody sharp has been getting hammered lately and every fktard thinks he's a genius. There was 1 big favorite who lost today can't believe the Cubs lost after getting up 2-0 literally the 3rd time this week I'v missed a 3 team parlay and the game I needed to close team up 2-0 and blew the lead. So annoying I'd rather they just get blown out then make me think I'm going to hit it.

I almost fired on Cubs yesterday too but got off work too late to get it in luckily. That said - up 2-0 early against one of the hottest teams in baseball definitely isn't a safe lead.

Ghenghis Kahn · 08-02-13, 09:24 AM

first half of the season, i'd cap games and fade the ones that i really liked if there was rlm.

it was money for a while. lately not so much. like anything in life, you need to adjust accordingly.

one thing though, people that are moving the lines are getting killed...

RavensFan2k3 · 08-02-13, 09:26 AM

Originally posted by Big Bear

80% of money was on the Angels.

Line went from -120 to -104 right before game time.

Yet the obvious happened. Josh Johnson got rocked again.

Now i had no play on this game b/c i was spooked by the reverse line movement...so now i'm starting to think this shit does not apply to baseball.. only football and basketball...

Is it safe to say I can ignore line movement in MLB?

It's not ignoring line movement...it's understanding it. To me the line movement obviously meant LAA was the play. You just have to be able to understand it. People here seem to think that the line moves dependent on on where the money is. Wrong. The books move the line which ever way the deem necessary to either maximize their money gain or minimize their money loss.

Big Bear · 08-02-13, 09:31 AM

Originally posted by Ghenghis Kahn

first half of the season, i'd cap games and fade the ones that i really liked if there was rlm.

it was money for a while. lately not so much. like anything in life, you need to adjust accordingly.

one thing though, people that are moving the lines are getting killed...

true. Obviously we have posters that opinions vary on this subject. It would be interesting to get No Coincidences in here and hear his thoughts on this subject.

I know he is a big line movement guy, and at the same I know he doesn't think much of Josh Johnson either.

http://forum.sbrforum.com/baseball-betting/2501252-josh-johnson-shouldnt-230-vs-high-school-team.html?highlight=josh+johnson+high+school

So Coiner had to be torn on that one...

But LT Profits, No Coin, and Lakerboy , were always big line movement guys.. and you have other posters such as billy sink and benny bigs that say line movement don't mean shit.

No coincidences · 08-02-13, 09:35 AM

Originally posted by Big Bear

true. Obviously we have posters that opinions vary on this subject. It would be interesting to get No Coincidences in here and hear his thoughts on this subject.

I know he is a big line movement guy, and at the same I know he doesn't think much of Josh Johnson either.

http://forum.sbrforum.com/baseball-betting/2501252-josh-johnson-shouldnt-230-vs-high-school-team.html?highlight=josh+johnson+high+school

So Coiner had to be torn on that one...

But LT Profits, No Coin, and Lakerboy , were always big line movement guys.. and you have other posters such as billy sink and benny bigs that say line movement don't mean shit.

Dude, you need to get laid.

Big Bear · 08-02-13, 09:40 AM

Originally posted by No coincidences

Dude, you need to get laid.

we all do. But seriously give us your opinion on the subject.

I know that had to have you scratching your head last night b/c i know you love to fade JJ but the reverse line movement had to have you going crazy....

what do you think man? i'm be serious , i'm trying to learn and improve as a handicapper.

No coincidences · 08-02-13, 10:13 AM

Originally posted by Big Bear

we all do. But seriously give us your opinion on the subject.

I know that had to have you scratching your head last night b/c i know you love to fade JJ but the reverse line movement had to have you going crazy....

what do you think man? i'm be serious , i'm trying to learn and improve as a handicapper.

I wasn't scratching my head last night because I didn't even see it. I was busy with my family enjoying the summer weather. You should try it sometime.

Line movement means nothing when you're trying to paint it in a broad stroke and assume all games are created equal.

Big Bear · 08-02-13, 10:16 AM

Originally posted by No coincidences

I wasn't scratching my head last night because I didn't even see it. I was busy with my family enjoying the summer weather. You should try it sometime.

Line movement means nothing when you're trying to paint it in a broad stroke and assume all games are created equal.

Yeah last night the Angels just looked too easy. josh johnson has been horrible. Every start he makes i keep thinking it will be his last start in the big leagues.

I figured the line would have gone from -120 to -150 range... not -120 to almost even money.

And since it was the only late night game last night i guess i just got paranoid that the books were setting a trap.

whtsox13 · 08-02-13, 01:36 PM

Originally posted by curtrambus

Usually matters just been a fkd up 3 weeks. Anybody sharp has been getting hammered lately and every fktard thinks he's a genius.

I'd say more like 5-6 weeks. Someone really sharp would probably recognize it earlier and change strategies to capitalize instead of getting hammered. And good for the genius fktards they deserve some wins here and there.

Big Bear · 08-02-13, 01:38 PM

Originally posted by whtsox13

I'd say more like 5-6 weeks. Someone really sharp would probably recognize it earlier and change strategies to capitalize instead of getting hammered. And good for the genius fktards they deserve some wins here and there.

exactly ! every dog need to have his day.

Big Bear · 08-02-13, 01:45 PM

"

Ghenghis Kahn · 08-02-13, 01:59 PM

i doubt Pinny randomly moves lines unless they get heavy action...

matthew919 · 08-02-13, 02:07 PM

Keep in mind you are looking at a sample size of 1 here. Lines move according to sharp, well funded action, especially when it's late movement.

It's not that the books want to attract more money to one side from public bettors, it's that they want to move the number to a point where sharp bettors will stop pounding it. Bet sizing for pros with bankrolls in the millions is entirely dictated by limits, and if Pinny doesn't adjust a line that is getting hit by a known sharp, they are in an exposed position.

To be fair, sharps aren't always right, and they don't always agree with one another. But if the line moved from -120 to -104, Jays was very likely the correct play.

And yes, pretty much the entire year has been terrible if you are an originator.

RavensFan2k3 · 08-02-13, 02:18 PM

"

MikeyD323 · 08-02-13, 02:26 PM

Originally posted by curtrambus

Usually matters just been a fkd up 3 weeks. Anybody sharp has been getting hammered lately and every fktard thinks he's a genius. There was 1 big favorite who lost today can't believe the Cubs lost after getting up 2-0 literally the 3rd time this week I'v missed a 3 team parlay and the game I needed to close team up 2-0 and blew the lead. So annoying I'd rather they just get blown out then make me think I'm going to hit it.

You think thats bad? I had a 4 teamer: orioles over 8 1/2, giants, cards and seattle for $50 to win like $750 i dont remmeber exactly off the top of my head. Won first 3 and seattles up 7-2 bottom of 9th and sox put up 6 on last licks. I woke up and cudnt believe it. My luck

matthew919 · 08-02-13, 02:27 PM

Originally posted by RavensFan2k3

Bingo...I ofcourse, could be wrong, but I've seen it time and time again. The books like to use where the money is going to play with our emotions, sort of speak. If alot of money is coming in on a side that the books feel is the losing side, they'll move in the line in the way making us believe that its the right side, thus, causing more money to go that way. If alot of money is going on the winning side, you may see the line move the other way, reverse line movement, to make people rethink thats the right side. This typically happens right before the game starts too.

Lol. You are over thinking this.